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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    Not much but I’d keep an eye on it lol
  2. WxWatcher007
    I don’t have anything scientific here, but I do think seeing how that Midwest trough trended does show that there’s potential this month that future troughs could do the same. Maybe not enough to drive it to Buffalo lol, but I think we get another EC threat (or two) this month.
  3. WxWatcher007
    I think a slight is close to a lock. I’m tracking severe more than rain around here lol.
  4. WxWatcher007
    D2
  5. WxWatcher007
    I think it’s way too early to look at track specifics. The steering pattern broadly? Sure. We just saw how quickly things could change with Debby…and Beryl…
  6. WxWatcher007
    Quite a solid look on IR
  7. WxWatcher007
    Not a bad look at all on IR
  8. WxWatcher007
    It’s too early to really get a good sense of where it’ll track (see Debby forecast ten days ago) but the genesis signal is very strong and with good reason—this looks like a highly favorable environment across guidance.
  9. WxWatcher007
    We’re going to quickly pivot from Debby to this new lemon. Forget the op runs—the environment ahead looks favorable, and the steering pattern as it stands preliminarily is for a close approach. Beware the cutoff trough—if we can get one now, the door is opened for repeats.
  10. WxWatcher007
    Seeing several tornado warnings tonight in NC. Convection has really blown up. Will be an interesting day as Debby keeps moving along.
  11. WxWatcher007
  12. WxWatcher007
    That actually sounds…pretty good (though I don’t smoke lol). We all have stories.
  13. WxWatcher007
    I wasn’t even thinking of looking out there
  14. WxWatcher007
    Long loop radar doesn’t show a secondary circulation. There’s deep convection SE of the center, but this shouldn’t influence the overall track of Debby. Matters for rainfall though.
  15. WxWatcher007
    Last hour radar indicated 2-3" and pushing 5-6" last three. I'm not sure how slow to update that site data is currently you posted. It's either incorrect, delayed, or radar is a temporary simulation experiment. I'll take one of the first two options. I'm using RadarScope but I see three hour estimates in that range and totals between 7-10” overall just west of the city.
  16. WxWatcher007
    That’s the kind of band that can drop 20” with enough time.
  17. WxWatcher007
    Grain of salt for sure lol. If we see some substantial severe down in the Mid-Atlantic it may foreshadow some activity here. Still pretty funny to me that we’re days out from something meaningful here. Tropical tracking isn’t for the impatient.
  18. WxWatcher007
    Euro
  19. WxWatcher007
    Paging @weatherwiz From a met in the MA subforum
  20. WxWatcher007
    Things will probably pick up in a big way across the MDR soon. It should be a hyperactive peak.
  21. WxWatcher007
    You just want to see the TC genesis signal at this point, and it’s robust.
  22. WxWatcher007
    Visible
  23. WxWatcher007
    Right, but it normally only takes one area to raise the maximum sustained wind. I disagree on the structure. To be clear, it’s still broad with dry air clearly entrained, but compared to yesterday or even this morning it has become more organized imo. For this region the wind doesn’t matter, but if it’s better organized at landfall that should help moisture transport as it landfalls and speeds up. The visible shows it well imo.
  24. WxWatcher007
    Time and the broad center are definitely limiting factors. NHC has 12-24 hours before landfall.
  25. WxWatcher007
    If you recall yesterday, I said to watch for convection and broader structure organization as Debby pushed offshore. Recon still shows a broad wind field, but radar shows solid banding and IR shows convection trying to build closer to the center. We’ll see how much progress it makes today.
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