WxWatcher007

Good to see you post. Best of luck up there and agree. Close graze seems most likely.

Now we watch for if there’s an additional landfall in Newfoundland. It’s likely going to be close.

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/ We wish we were there but we don’t play Island Roulette.

I agree with the football spiking (which I think is more in jest here imo) But there are a lot of times where I think you can write off a system or a system’s impact here at range. I don’t think Ernesto was one of those until a few days ago for NE, but obviously it trended that way. Honestly though, I’m not even looking at a system before looking at the steering and development/intensification environment. You may not know exactly where a system is headed but there are times where you can see the writing on the wall 7-10 days or longer out. And there are times where the writing is wrong. I think folks here underestimate how often that happens. Just look at some of the eventual hits over the last 5 years and the conversation that precedes models locking on. I look more often than I like to admit.

The common thread through all the hurricanes this season has been prolonged periods of dry air ingestion. Pretty interesting considering all were in favorable environments otherwise when it happened. I thought the more classic AMO SST distribution would keep stability in check this season but so far that hasn’t been the case.

It’s miserable to read but that’s just how it goes.

Still may have a significant impact on Newfoundland, but yeah, the initial trough pulling it north before the Bahamas usually means it's gone for the US.

Woodshed. 0.00”

How this one evaporates before reaching me may have all timer potential.

Burning bushes under dry thunderstorms here. 0.00”

It’s clearly organizing at a faster pace and starting to intensify as a result. Pretty solid pressure drop as an eyewall nears completion as deep convection persists at the center and wraps upshear, and as a result, FL winds have risen modestly. Might be an interesting night of observations coming from recon. Another thing to watch is the long term heading, which may influence how much the initial trough positions Ernesto for Bermuda and beyond.

It’ll never happen. I’m aspirational. Idk who said that but we’re at 3 hurricanes before Aug 15th with 1 cat 5 and the current storm with a chance to become a major. What did you expect?

Ernesto looks fine to me. Solid CDO with an eyewall that was showing up on radar prior to leaving range. Wind field is a little broad but I don’t see why folks think the structure is poor for a “minimal” hurricane.

Euro couldn’t hold a consistent track on this one even if it were threatened with being unplugged.

PREs can happen left, right, or directly ahead of the track. Just depends on the jet/trough orientation ahead. Doubt this is a PRE setup unless Ernesto ends up substantially further west. Which is unlikely.

Third hurricane of the season

For New England to even sniff significant impacts you’d need the NE turn near Bermuda to essentially evaporate, and a stronger ECONUS trough to fully capture. That’s going to be extremely hard to do. I wonder if something like that is even in the record idk. Partial capture does nothing for New England imo, but for Atlantic Canada a partial capture likely brings a hit there.

Nothing good lol

Most of us knew it, but the models didn’t until just a few days before and I think it had a real world impact on Houston. Definitely not saying it’s coming here or even hitting land, but the model performance this season especially with track leaves a lot to be desired imo.

It’s been really interesting to see how the euro and gfs specifically are waffling with the longer range forecast. I won’t be surprised to see other major shifts.

I know most here don’t care, but it’s really interesting to me just how inconsistent and sometimes downright bad the models have been at range with regard to track. They’ve waffled a lot—whether it was taking Beryl from a Mexico coast landfall to just outside Houston (most), or keeping Debby out of the Gulf (Euro) and driving it into Alabama after landfall (GFS). The Euro and GFS seem like they’re circling each other. When one goes west, the other goes east beyond D5. It’s a huge shift west on the euro tonight, but history suggests it will be hundreds of miles east 12 hours from now. Just an interesting seasonal theme I’ve noticed. As it has been from the beginning, this is a real threat to Canada. Without that initial trough turning this north early it probably would’ve become a major east coast hit with the second trough orientation we see across guidance.

Bermuda will be fine and Ernesto looks like a standard mid-grade TS that’s trying but failing to develop an inner core. It’s on schedule.

@Hazey and Nick still squarely in play at this range.