WxWatcher007

Can’t end the month without acknowledging the last major.

I know I keep repeating it but you can see how small changes in the next 48 hours leads to this waffling signal across guidance. The 12z GFS had very little consolidation and as a result the disturbed area can’t coalesce until the western Caribbean. 06z Monday 06z Sunday 18z has marginal consolidation with stronger vorticity—not an unreasonable possibility—and the result is much faster development in the Caribbean with obvious impacts on intensity and track. 06z Monday 06z Sunday This is why I think it’s incredibly hard to latch onto any particular evolution yet. A lot is still on the table.

Thanks. Had a beautiful lawn and no crabgrass in April. Not so much now smh.

Radar looks like there’s a tighter low there, but proximity to land is an issue to say the least. Still, flooding rain potential along the coast.

It’s not terribly surprising to me to see the signal pulse up and down as this tries to consolidate. Can it be convectively active enough to organize some before the Antilles? That’s an open question to me and has big track and potential intensity implications.

Time to reseed right? How do I get rid of the crabgrass?

Monsoon Trough. Tends to be a good focal point for tropical genesis, but can lead to messy model signals because you get competing areas of vorticity. In this case, the monsoon trough also helps to moisten the central Atlantic. Could be useful later in September.

That’s what I posted about earlier today. There’s been a cross guidance signal for something for days now. It’ll get meh’d but the signal for something offshore is there. We’ll see if it’s there next week though.

I wouldn’t say we’re active yet, but last week we couldn’t even get convection in the tropical Atlantic lol. If the MT can produce something especially before the Antilles I think there’s high end potential.

New lemon right off the TX coast…but it’d need to stay offshore to develop.

That’s the current NHC orange. It should be noted though that the NHC has tagged that surface trough near the TX coast with 20% 7 day odds. Models have played with the signal, but it’s all dependent on whether it drifts inland—which it does on most models. On the ones where it stays offshore like the ICON, it develops some.

Seems more upper level for now and it’s in an area of high shear. If it gets to the Gulf time would probably be a limiting factor.

Wait a week. More upper level than anything at the surface. I hinted at it in another thread days ago but I think there’s legit potential for something off the SE coast next week—maybe tropical, maybe hybrid—as a boundary settles off the coast. Probably an OTS type deal but there should be a ridge building over the top that could force it north or back west.

While the models continue to waffle some, the region continues to look convectively active and maybe trying to consolidate some. 925mb vorticity loop https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8vor5/wg8vor5_loop.html

Incredible considering the far western portion of the state is in exceptional drought. Not that far away.

I kind of use them interchangeably, because they’re often “intertwined”, but this is a good explainer & visual. Pinpointing where/whether TC genesis occurs within a monsoon trough is difficult, but a monsoon trough itself tends to be a viable mechanism for TC genesis. Sometimes multiple TCs. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20110519_tafb_unifiedSurfaceAnalysis.pdf

Haha breaks happen every year, even during the peak. Now is the time for rest, football, and cleaning up the yard.

Let’s get the bugs dormant with a cooldown. I just got back from DC where the last two days had heat indices over 100°, and late summer step down sounds good to me. Truthfully though I don’t care what happens. It’s all tropical all the time now for me.

The operational models on balance today have latched onto a TC genesis signal for something near the Antilles/Caribbean via the monsoon trough. This is the NHC designated orange. The 18z Euro is faster and more robust with development through 90. Still, I’d caution that monsoon trough TC genesis is very difficult to predict and get right, so there could still be a waffling signal over the next day or two. However, given that I believe the primary reason for a “lid” in the basin so far has been stability/SAL/northern extent of past waves, we have legitimate reasons to believe genesis is possible. First, shear is relatively low in the zone where genesis is most likely, which has been a characteristic of the season thus far. Second, in this area further west, we have additional instability and a highly favorable SST/OHC profile. This is still in sharp contrast to the eastern MDR, which has seen a substantial rise in instability, but is still well below normal climo due to what’s been discussed the last few pages. I can’t overstate how important I think it is to have the MT south and possible development in the central portion of the MDR. This keeps potential development away from the greatest influence of SAL, as you can see below. Still, it’ll be important to watch convective trends the next 48 hours. No convection, no early development. You can see the MT easily with the ribbon of convection south of the SAL above, and below you can see how there’s already elongated modest low level vorticity. What breaks off and where will matter for the future, but for now, we just watch for convective activity and signs of vorticity consolidation.

Tagged with a lemon now.

I’m guessing it’ll be a waffling signal for genesis the next few days as the models struggle with what’ll come out of the MT, If anything, but the environment ahead looks quite favorable should something actually try to form before the Antilles.

It makes sense that we’re potentially starting to see signs of life as the EPAC goes quiet and the monsoon trough/African waves start to end up in more climatologically favored regions. Whatever comes of that MT could be worth watching generally as it gets into the Caribbean—that’s if anything develops. Shear is low across the MDR, and the shear profiles look absurdly favorable mid-September across ensembles. Although still well below normal, instability in the eastern MDR has increased markedly this month, and SAL intrusions have been less prominent. Waves just need to survive crossing the eastern MDR wasteland…

I don’t think ENSO will necessarily influence track here, certainly not as much as where a TC forms in the monsoon trough and how soon…if it happens at all. I’m kind of in “need to see more” mode before jumping on the lid is coming off train, but in the next week I think there are probably three areas to monitor. 1. Monsoon Trough in central Atlantic (40% NHC odds currently) 2. The eastern Atlantic tropical wave that @Windspeed has identified 3. SE U.S./central Atlantic where a boundary may help spur genesis for something moving eastward and into the open Atlantic