WxWatcher007

Writing my annual peak season forecast today

I’m writing up my annual peak season forecast today. It’s coming…

Fast mover. Worst is already gone.

Climo would be nice. Seasons in seasons.

Up to .81 on the day. 2.05” two day total.

.42” in 20 minutes. .66 on the day.

Skies have opened up. Over 2”/hr rate currently.

Will be watching the radar as it makes its closest approach. Again, good luck out there. Pretty incredible that all five TCs this season have impacted land.

Barely got any rain when the first batch of course missed north. Still at .24 on the day so far.

I don’t know what I would’ve done if that one fluke storm didn’t hit my area. It’s the greatest snow surprise of my life. I woke up that morning expecting nothing.

I really hope we can get a good winter around here soon. It feels like the usual time annually, but I feel the same way. The loss of daylight is particularly sad. That said, football, peak tropical, and a change of season is always exciting for me.

I think our human-centric way of viewing the world fundamentally warps how many people see wx. Yeah you have folks whose common retort is “Mother Nature will do what it does” but we know that in most instances we can figure it out early along with the why. There are people who expect we nail how much snow at what time down to the inch. But, there are times where it’s just a confluence of events that lead to catastrophe. Sometimes there isn’t much other than luck or fate or whatever people want to call it that determines if a tornado hits one house and skips another, or my street gets 13” of powder while the next town over is at 9”, or the most intense training from a mesolow sits over one area vs another. We know a lot to be sure, but there’s more mesoscale unpredictability than a lot of folks would like to admit. I can’t claim to have been in a personally life threatening flash flood event, but my chases have brought me damn close and flash floods can really happen in an instant. Sometimes there’s no way out. The same for any crisis though is to keep calm and try to think of escape routes.

Not trying to be a wiseass, but I think the last page or so proves a point I’ve made for a long time—it really doesn’t matter what hits someday, there’s going to be part of the region that will meh it because it’s nearly impossible to have a storm large enough with a compact enough inner core to deliver whatever folks’ tropical expectations or fantasies are.

Agree. I don’t think Ernesto had any real influence given its distance and position well to our east. Different story if it were south or west of us, but here imo it’s exactly what you said.

What are you at for the day?

Everyone got out safely but it was a close call.

Jesus

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0901 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 645 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 182244Z - 190444Z Summary...Widespread flash flooding continues this evening across the Northeast, which will continue through the evening. Additional considerable to locally catastrophic impacts cannot be ruled out, especially over areas impacted by ongoing/earlier rainfall. Discussion...Widespread thunderstorms are underway across the Northeast ahead of a slow moving cold front analyzed across central Pennsylvania and western New York. Over the last several hours, rainfall rates upwards of 2"/hr combined with cell training and repeating have have led to numerous reports of impactful flash flooding across the region. RAP proximity soundings in the vicinity of these cells highlight a very favorable environment to drive intense rainfall rates upwards of 2"/hr, including a nearly saturated profile with 1.8-1.9" PWAT, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (in a "tall-skinny" profile), and warm cloud depths around 10,000 feet. While the mean-flow will support relatively quick cell motions of 25-30 kts, the parallel orientation to the synoptic forcing will favor training and repeating with slow eastward progression. As these storms continue over saturated soils and urban areas, the threat of significant flash flooding will continue through this evening, with 18Z HREF neighborhood probabilities showing a very high (70-80%) chance of 3 HR FFG exceedence through 3z. Additional considerable to locally catastrophic flash flooding impacts cannot be ruled out going forward, especially over areas hit hard from ongoing/previous rainfall, including western Connecticut which as seen 10+" of rainfall today.

Daily record seems like a lock. Truly extraordinary day.

Well now that the band is reaching my backyard it’s narrowing and drying up. You’re welcome, Connecticut.

You stop that talk right now Just need an Henri type pattern to collapse the steering flow or a stronger Debby that stayed offshore and pulled that PRE closer and there you have it.

Housatonic at Stevenson has gone from 2.68ft to just under 17ft (mid flood) in 3.5 hours.

Not sure what’s going to happen here, but I’m definitely watching what’s coming up from the Sound.

To the extent that FFEs are new, I think most of them have happened in recent memory.