WxWatcher007

That's where I think recon would be very helpful. Just in general I'm always wary of models underplaying the strength of ridging, and that has been an issue this summer. Here, it matters because as you know the further west this goest the more threatening this becomes to someone if that trough continues to trend towards more amplified.

Right. Obviously plenty of wave activity and possible beach erosion, but this turns north well east of the east coast. The only reason why this thread is active is because there's enough of a signal for a ridge to block a quick escape OTS as a trough pulls it north.

It's def not a classic look. If it were, the odds would obviously be higher. I'm at 55% OTS/25% Atlantic Canada/20% New England, with eastern NE favored more than some type of direct SNE hit. As for intensity, obviously it'll be weaker and not a major lol, but that was never on the table unless this got to the Bahamas and rode up the coast--which wasn't going to happen with the first trough. That said, this far out idk how we can accurately predict intensity when we don't know heading/location, speed, and how far along in ET transition this would be in.

Absolute torch here. Was over 90 before noon.

Time for another deep dive. Lee is entering its second period of rapid intensification, and the NHC in an extraordinarily rare move is now explicitly forecasting that Lee becomes a category five hurricane. This would be our eighth cat 5 since 2016--a remarkable period of high end tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. Rather than talk about intensity, I want to dedicate time to forecast track. If you recall from my post a few days ago, I broke down the different track stages for Lee. Substantively, there hasn't been a lot of change in my thinking. Lee is a threat to land, but the signal for a landfall while increasing, remains highly uncertain, especially at this range. Stage I--WNW Movement Around Atlantic Ridge This was high confidence, and it's happening as I type. The current NHC heading for Lee is WNW at 15mph from 16.4°N 50.0°W. This is important to the rest of the forecast. The image is small, but it's critical to pay attention to the western component of Lee in a few days. The current forecast, which is high confidence still, takes Lee on a WNW heading north of the Antilles. However, in approximately 5-6 days, we should start seeing a turn northward as the ridge is weakened. Stage II--Turn Northward The northward turn is going to happen, but how far west does Lee get before that turn is made? Currently, the guidance has that turn happening between 65-70W. In the last few days, the trend has been more southwest with Lee, and those degrees matter for the turn, because the guidance has had less of a sharp recurve and more of an extended northward heading once Lee turns. I think this is where recon will be vital. As recon samples the environment around Lee, it should be able to give the guidance essential information on whether the currently forecasted weakening of the ridge is accurate, or whether the weakening is over/understated. This is happening as confidence increases that a trough will develop over the E CONUS and a ridge over the Maritimes/Atlantic attempts to rebuild as Lee turns north. The 00z ensemble runs below look at the steering pattern from 144-240. You will notice a new wrinkle in these runs--TD 14, which is soon to become Margot. The spacing between Lee and future Margot is important as Margot may prevent the Atlantic ridge from amplifying more than it otherwise would. The greater spacing the greater the chance the ridge truly flexes, pushing Lee on some type of bended heading (NNW most likely) toward land. Every degree of longitude will matter. Stage III--The Final Turn Here's where the E CONUS trough comes in. It's still unclear what kind of orientation and depth it'll have. Should it become pinched off into a cutoff low, you can expect it to "capture" Lee and bring some type of land impact depending on where that capture occurs. If it is shallow and progressive, it should create just enough of a weakness in the ridge to give Lee a last minute kick. In my opinion, this is still highly uncertain, but I lean toward the fact that Lee is likely turning between 65-70W, the presence of future Margot preventing too much Atlantic ridge amplification, and the fact that guidance continues to suggest on balance that the E CONUS trough is more kicker than anything else to keep the OTS solution slightly favored at this time. This could certainly change, however, and I will note that the European model and ensembles have become more bullish on land impacts given a more favorable ridge/trough alignment for a northward turn that doesn't materialize into a steeper ENE recurve like the GFS. While the differences are small among the ensembles in an absolute sense, they lead to very different sensible wx outcomes. As a result, I have higher landfall odds than I did a few days ago. While they are much higher than what I think the climatological average would be, they are still fairly low in the whole scheme of things. It's still pretty early IMO to discern with a high degree of confidence what happens in Stage III, other than I still believe most of the East Coast of the US is not facing a legitimate threat from Lee. This is New England or Atlantic Canada IMO. 55% OTS--because of the high confidence that a turn happens between 65-70W, outside of standard climatology zone for a northeast US landfall, the presence of future Margot impacting the Atlantic ridge, and because it is extremely hard to trust a E CONUS cutoff low being positioned and timed "perfectly". 25% Atlantic Canada Threat--because a turn north between 65-70W still puts Nova Scotia in particular in the direct path of Lee should an extended northward heading materialize. Even a last second turn ENE could allow for muted impacts or a direct hit of Newfoundland. 20% New England Threat--because while my odds are higher than the ensembles would show currently, I still think there's room for the ridge/trough alignment to become more favorable for a westward shift of guidance, leading to a glancing blow. A direct hit in SNE would be less favored at this time. I take no stance right now on intensity should Lee become a land threat, other than it would certainly be far weaker than its peak at that time because of cooler SSTs, lower OHC, and potential extratropical transition.

Only the beginning. Recon is in for a heck of a show this evening.

Absolutely ridiculous. 100s in September.

Look at the nuke over in the EPAC. 80kt of RI in 24 hours. Now that’s perfection.

What a nuke…and we’re going to have one in each basin soon.

Basin is rocking

I don’t think this is a 5-10% chance looking at the broader synoptic landscape as currently forecast. Franklin would have fit into that range, and on the lower side IMO. The presence of an Atlantic ridge and potential for a deeper/less progressive ridge here are important pieces in my mind, even if their amplitude and orientation are uncertain at this range and could eventually guarantee OTS.

The inevitable ERCs will expand the wind field as well. This is likely to be a big time wave producer along the East Coast.

I think even at 20%, while that’s low in an absolute sense, it’s probably pretty high relative to climatological odds on a any given September 6. I’m with you in the sense I don’t have a real investment in this yet—I post because I love tropical analysis—but I’m not staying up for the euro or anything like that. When I start getting less sleep and planning chase target locations, then it’s real to me lol.

Yep, was just saying this in another thread. It’s a new wrinkle for sure and a great illustration of why a legitimate EC threat remains low. Despite the broader synoptic setup being conducive for a close approach, any troughing that’s “out of alignment” leads to an easterly track. 100%. The same folks do this every thread and this place becomes absolutely unreadable. I know I’m yelling into the void but please keep the meteorological discussion here and all the other stuff elsewhere folks. Back on topic, it’s an excellent satellite presentation, and you can see how deep convection is trying to wrap around the center. Probably not there yet on the western side, but trying. Latest microwave imagery mostly missed but you could see nice spiral banding in earlier images. It has already achieved RI in going from a depression to category one hurricane, btw.

Yesterday I was at 65% OTS/20% Atlantic Canada threat/15% New England threat. I think the trend on the ensembles today increase the risk slightly, but this new wrinkle with 96L just makes forecasting all the more difficult. This evening I’m at: 60% OTS 20% Atlantic Canada threat 20% New England threat

I don’t really get this argument. Heat is the number one wx related killer and can cause serious illness more easily than any other type of wx. We don’t usually see basically the hottest stretch of the summer in September. A classroom without AC and 20-25 kids in it for hours at a time isn’t going to be whatever the temperature is outside, it’ll probably be warmer, not to mention temperatures on school buses. Subjecting kids to that because of some perception that we did it when we were younger and turned out fine makes little sense to me. It’s easy to blame “society of litigation”, but I think a lot of people wildly oversimplify how litigation actually works, especially when it comes to government entities.

First 90 since July 28. Warmest since July 6 with a high of 91.9° so far.

It’ll almost certainly be upgraded in the 5pm advisory.

Even 2-3 days out can be dicey for a general location. If you’re looking for the eye over your head, predicting a few hours out is nerve wracking. Nothing like it.

Expectations through the roof and out of whack. That little s/w is the perfect illustration of why this is still a low probability deal despite the general trend. The smallest thing can force this east, especially given how soon it’s expected to turn N. If this got buried in the central/NW Bahamas there’d be more wiggle room.

That’s why I’m just focused on the broader steering pattern trends. Every op run is going to be different at this range.

Yup

I think it’s a little more legit today than it was yesterday, but there’s an eternity to go.

00z Euro did, but I’d caution everyone to stay away from the verbatim deterministic outcomes—exactly where Lee ends up at 240. It’s all about the steering pattern and multi-day trend. As it stands, it still looks like the greatest likelihood is OTS (remember I was at 65% yesterday), but the two day trend in the steering pattern has increased the odds some of a threat to the east coast and/or Atlantic Canada IMO. This is still an eternity away, and we don’t have recon sampling the environment ahead yet.

Done