WxWatcher007

Very true. There’s always a lot to learn. Turning closer to home, the 12z GFS isn’t as exotic as that happy hour run, but I think it’s more “realistic” in how we’d get something up here. A spin up off the SE coast as the ridge builds in over the top and has no escape route as the ridge slides east. Obviously fantasy range, but I’ve highlighted the SE window for a while now.

A substantial drop in extrapolated pressure between passes on that new apparent center under the deep convection. From just over 1001mb to 995.6mb. Again this extrapolated, so more of an estimate. Still, that’s very impressive.

I’ll be interested in seeing 18z more because I think the recon data will be included, but as the NHC notes the SHIPS output is quite robust.

Not sure when we’ll get a VDM, but recon is finding a much tighter and more organized center in that deep convection. Winds aren’t terribly strong, but it’s the organization that matters.

Maybe a touch more NE, but the real critical factor imo will be how strong an inner core the system has as it’s approaching the coast. If it’s a weak inner core, shear could cause last second weakening as the vortex gets tilted and drier air gets imparted. You can see on the HWRF how the core is only half complete. Other models are closer to closed but not quite there and as a result pressures are lower. I’d just caution that we don’t have a well defined center yet, so both final track and especially intensity are far from settled matters. Shear and dry air lurk, but on the other side of the equation we see very strong convection and western Caribbean like OHC along the the projected track of the system that should favor continued deep convection.

That’s the kind of signal where the right track could cause extremely efficient ventilation. Or, any deviation from that “ideal” track blasts the system right before landfall. Things look like they’re a go for intensification later, and it’s kind of impressive we’re getting this with the rest of the Gulf under high shear. ULAC saves the day I guess.

Still some uncertainty on the trough interaction so that’s not surprising

Everything that’s developed has hit land. Even Ernesto somehow found Bermuda. Just an odd quirk of a season that started hot but then had a historically inactive period during peak season. Recon just starting and already finding 40-45kt winds, consistent with earlier ASCAT partial pass.

Recon has entered the system, so we’ll get a good sense soon of whether we have a well defined center.

How does the historic +NAO that we’ve seen this summer factor into your winter thoughts, if at all?

I think it depends largely on what you said, is the trough interaction going to be ideal with a further NE turn like the GFS/Euro, or a little flatter and thus more hostile like the Canadian. I lean toward the former, but I don’t think it’s a lock.

Not much time to write but this morning we’re likely seeing 91L begin to organize at a more deliberate pace. For the first time in a while given the stability issues we’ve had across the basin, this invest is producing deep and persistent convection, a critical element for future development and structural organization. The residual energy from 90L continues to dive down into the BoC and is merging with what was the weak Caribbean wave we were tracking for a week. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8vor5/wg8vor5_loop.html Although it is trying to organize, I’m not sure we have a TC quite yet. Recon is scheduled for later and by then we may have something if the convective trends continue. I would caution however, that this system while currently in a conducive environment will need to battle more potentially hostile conditions including shear and dry air at some point. For now, however, in the race with 92L to break the historic inactive streak, 91L is closest to getting a name. NHC telegraphing that advisories are coming at some point today.

Posted in the main forum but pasting here too Just quickly, my areas of interest: 1. BoC low/Invest 91L—80% Looks most likely to break our NS drought. Like I said before, it’s hard to bet against the BoC topography, though I’m not sure we’d have this area as likely to pop without old 90L and the boundary assisting what was an anemic wave. Western Gulf should watch closely. 2. Invest 92L—50% I won’t lie. I’m still nervous that this next iteration of the MT breakdown will fail to immediately produce, but like Windspeed said the tropical Atlantic portion of the MDR is looking substantially better than it did even a week ago. The apparent organization tonight gives me a little more confidence something is developing here. 3. MT Part II—40% This is the eastern end of the trough that will take more time to organize, if at all. A future AEW coming off Africa may help give the area the kick it needs to develop. Models are waffling on which part of the MT develops first, but it looks like 92L is in the lead. This is the easternmost NHC orange. 4. SE Coast—20% There’s still a signal late next week for a low to develop along a stalled boundary, and this may factor in the eventual track of 92L. What has my interest here is 1) the further south potential for development in a more tropical genesis favored zone, and 2) the possibility of a ridge developing over the top, potentially cutting off a quick exit. Two things 99L didn’t have. Long way away so not worth much attention. I’m not going to declare anything until it happens, but I do wonder if the lid is starting to come off…from west to east.

Just quickly, my areas of interest: 1. BoC low/Invest 91L—80% Looks most likely to break our NS drought. Like I said before, it’s hard to bet against the BoC topography, though I’m not sure we’d have this area as likely to pop without old 90L and the boundary assisting what was an anemic wave. Western Gulf should watch closely. 2. Invest 92L—50% I won’t lie. I’m still nervous that this next iteration of the MT breakdown will fail to immediately produce, but like Windspeed said the tropical Atlantic portion of the MDR is looking substantially better than it did even a week ago. The apparent organization tonight gives me a little more confidence something is developing here. 3. MT Part II—40% This is the eastern end of the trough that will take more time to organize, if at all. A future AEW coming off Africa may help give the area the kick it needs to develop. Models are waffling on which part of the MT develops first, but it looks like 92L is in the lead. This is the easternmost NHC orange. 4. SE Coast—20% There’s still a signal late next week for a low to develop along a stalled boundary, and this may factor in the eventual track of 92L. What has my interest here is 1) the further south potential for development in a more tropical genesis favored zone, and 2) the possibility of a ridge developing over the top, potentially cutting off a quick exit. Two things 99L didn’t have. Long way away so not worth much attention. I’m not going to declare anything until it happens, but I do wonder if the lid is starting to come off…from west to east.

happy hour GFS indeed

Sitting currently with .24”.

I do wonder how much room there is for an eastward trend or sharper hook. The track forecast looks like it could be pretty sensitive until we have a well defined system. I’d imagine faster/stronger will get carried more efficiently, which could also make the upper air conditions more favorable as well.

12z Euro is weaker, but finally in line with other guidance. Doesn’t matter as much at this point, but it has intensification through landfall.

Worth watching the SE coast next week as the window for something to form along the persistent troughing remains open. Development could happen as a high builds over the top, pushing it into the coast.

That’s a really good illustration. Thanks for sharing. You can see how the concave nature of the BoC may be assisting with organization as 90L’s residual vorticity shifts south. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8vor5/wg8vor5_loop.html

Verbatim it’s a good environment for intensification on the GFS. Has to stay offshore though. I’m sure the Euro will show nothing.