WxWatcher007

Books can be written on this mindset.

Some lower level vorticity and disorganized convection that came to be because of a decaying boundary, but not enough time to develop.

I guess my fundamental point though is…if we were expecting a historic met winter, would we say this 20% of the way through the season on December 20th or whatever? With one KU already in the books? Actually we would It’s not quite apples to apples but I think expectations have been a bit out of whack. Hyperactive doesn’t mean 10/6/3 this early, unless your bar is 2005. I think a reasonable projection for Aug 31 would’ve been something like 8/4/1 so we’re short of that pace to be sure, but it’s not dramatic. Ten days from now if we’re still 5/3/1 that’s a much bigger difference.

I think climo being what it is with the dramatic ramp up that usually happens post August 20, that ACE and the NS count being what it was August 15 vs August 25 mean very different things if that makes sense. It’s a reasonable argument on 8/15 to say well look, we’re at top 3 ACE in the satellite era and 5/3/1 is tremendous when normal should be 2/1/0 or whatever, and the peak is coming—steady as she goes. That’s why I disagreed with the arguments that the season had disappointed. To date. But today with the same numbers the climo treadmill speeds up by the day. We’re at peak broadly speaking. There should be activity in the Atlantic but Hawaii is getting scraped by the symmetrical eye of an intensifying hurricane. Every day that passes the NS forecasts look more endangered, but I still think H and MH are easily within range. 2022 and 2017 are good reminders that we can flip late and still put up an exceptionally high quality season. I do think it’s all about stability. In the eastern MDR it’s being reinforced by the MT/ITCZ being so north that any vigorous waves in recent weeks have rolled off Africa so far north that they get choked by SAL and much colder SSTs. Just look at how everything shut off after Ernesto. If waves were rolling off anywhere between 10-15N we’re all having a different conversation. That and a suppressive MJO combine to kill anything leaving Africa before it can even get far enough west to get off life support. If you look at the Euro and GFS moving forward, basically everything rolling off is doing so at 20N lol. You can’t even sniff a coherent enough wave to develop until 60W or greater. For the sake of my peak season forecast that needs to be transient lol but I’m not going to worry until after Sept 7 or so.

The GOAT of GOATs

The top right graphic there with wind observations is absolutely wild.

Because they’re entirely different time periods with different climatological setups in the basin? This time of year when the MDR is supposed to be lighting up, we’ve seen how SAL and stability in the eastern MDR can suppress August activity in recent years. We’ve also seen how that’s done little to blunt backloaded seasons because late season climo sees the decline of SAL and shift of TC genesis to the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Shear is more an issue late season normally, and that’s unlikely to be as much a roadblock this season given either a cool neutral or weak Nina ENSO state. 2022 had no activity between early July and early September but had 3 H in November. In active seasons there’s usually some activity in November. Including 2017, 5 of the last 7 seasons have had activity in November. If you told me a weak Nino were on the table late season like last year, November activity is off the table even with historically warm SSTs/OHC, but that’s not what we have.

Football is back. We fall. 75-85° is still plenty nice.

Still think homebrew region (especially Gulf) is best bet for activity through next week but eventually something will pop in the MDR. Let’s see how this latest wave coming off Africa does. That wave should be hounded less by SAL than prior waves so the signal for genesis could gradually improve on the other models in the coming days.

When you have two tropical systems heading toward Hawaii and rain in the Sahara it’s usually slim pickings in the Atlantic.

Yeah I wasn’t trying to ask a leading question there. I do think the mid to high 20s NS forecasts will be too high at this point, but I do still believe low 20s is achievable given that I expect activity into November. It’s pretty weird to see so little out there right now, but we’ll just have to see what happens when the lid comes off.

Let’s say that the quality over quantity theme of the season continues though and we end up with something 18/11/5. Is that a bust in your opinion?

I know you’re joking but they’re still worth the effort, even if they didn’t turn out as well as you (and we all) hoped.

One of my long term projects is to get a wood or pellet stove in my house. Getting a fireplace built doesn’t seem feasible.

Worth watching a weak wave over the Bahamas as it moves into the Gulf next week, but quiet otherwise.

I thought we had a window in early August with a favorable Atlantic ridge/trough setup and we kinda just missed with Debby and especially Ernesto. I do think that second window for us is mid-September into much of October because of what you said. September may be early but it’s climo favored and I do think we want some semblance of strong ridging in the Atlantic to get waves into the western Atlantic. We don’t have a ton of landfalling October systems in the record.

It’s a little nerve wracking to see so little activity on models into September, but the forecast is the forecast now. Hard to have the Atlantic lid come off when the EPAC is cooking. I still firmly believe that once the monsoon trough relocates south for waves to exit Africa at a lower latitude and SAL ratchets down things will take off.

If anything did pop it’d probably be headed toward TX.

I’d watch the Gulf next week.

Will fix, thank you!

Finally got it out. My peak season forecast. I think the NS projections may be overshot but I think the theme of this peak (and season as a result) will be quality over quantity. That said, I still think we get to the low 20s in NS and well over 200 ACE. Enjoy.

Here it is--my peak season forecast. Enjoy.

Thank you! As always, y'all get the first read. Just updated to fix typos, make it more clear, and such.

WxWatcher007 2024 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast One year ago today, we had an extraordinarily active basin that set the stage for a high end peak season, with three named storms and two additional areas with high odds of development. This year, despite favorable conditions, generally we have the opposite, with models even struggling to latch onto an area with high odds of development through the end of the month. Peak season has arrived however, which I define as August 20th through October 20th. During this ~8 week period approximately 2/3 of the Atlantic Hurricane season takes place historically. This is my sixth annual peak season forecast, and despite the lack of activity, I think we're headed for an even bigger peak than last season which featured 15 named storms (NS), 6 hurricanes (H), and 3 major hurricanes (MH). Last year was my best forecast. Let's keep the streak of good forecasts going. I've been quite good overall other than a disastrous 2021 Seasonal Grades 2019 Grade: B+ 2020 Grade: A- 2021 Grade: C 2022 Grade: B 2023 Grade: A We've gotten accustomed to high NS years. In the recent past, we have seen seasons that feature hot starts in terms of NS, but climo has dictated that many of those systems were early season slop. I think our familiarity with that has given many of us a warped sense of the type of season it has been. To date, it has been historically active. So far, we've seen 3 hurricanes, one of which was historic in Beryl as our earliest category 5 on record. Our ACE to date is 55.1 where climatology says it should be 20. Currently the North Atlantic is beating the WPAC in ACE, which averages 108.5 at this point. Relative to normal, our basin has been active compared to all the other northern hemisphere basins, which are having down years. I don't do the data analysis nearly as well as @GaWx, but this season to date is (edit: third) in ACE in the satellite era (1966). It is only surpassed by the anomaly of anomalies, 2005, and 1980. Image below from the tremendous data tracking site by Dr. Kim Wood. The image above says a lot. It says that we've been historically active and that it has been a quality over quantity season, much like 2017. It says that we have have ebbs and flows in the season, driven early on by Beryl but then carried further by Debby and Ernesto. Most important for this forecast, it says we're at a crossroad in the season. Usually, the number of storms to date doesn't speak to the kind of peak we will have. I think that's the case here. I'm not sure we've had enough NS however to prevent the big NS forecasts from overshooting the mark, including my original seasonal forecast of 28 NS. That said, I think the type of storms we've seen so far does speak to the quality of storms we're likely to see during the peak, and that spells trouble. Even at a middling pace the rest of the season, we're squarely on track for a hyperactive season. So, what does the August 20 - October 20 period hold? When the lid comes off, I expect a hyperactive peak. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 Hurricanes: 10 Major Hurricanes: 5 I can't do the calculations but I imagine this kind of peak would put us well over 200 ACE, and I think we finish the season within the top 5 for ACE (227.2+) all time in the basin. This is a risky call when the next ten days look quiet on the models. As a reminder, a typical season is 14/7/3. Let's look at the factors that drive this forecast, and that requires looking beyond the 10 day deterministic models. 1. ENSO The La Nina that was expected to be in place by now has been delayed, but probably won't be denied. Either way, having a cool neutral season thus far hasn't forced an unexpected wrinkle in the general atmospheric conditions over the basin. Within this current regime, we have seen very low shear across the Caribbean, and nothing suggests that this will unexpectedly reverse through the peak of the season. If you're looking for how we don't have an active peak, even if my forecast is off, ENSO won't be the reason. 2. West African Monsoon This has been interesting. Although it may not feel like it, one of the sub-themes of the season to me has been the number of vigorous African waves that have rolled off the continent during periods of activity. All three of our eventual hurricanes originated from those waves. However, an active WAM can be a double edged sword. As we've seen in the last month or so, a lot of those waves have come off and brought big intrusions of SAL during the climatological peak of SAL season, or, as is the case in the past few weeks, come off too far north, being killed by both dry air and far cooler sea surface temperatures. The WAM is likely to stay active, but I think the climatological drop off in SAL coupled with waves beginning to come off the African continent at a lower latitude as the monsoon trough sags south should put future waves in better position to develop. 3. Wind Shear As I noted above, wind shear has not been a major issue thus far this season. Keep in mind that yes, there's almost always wind shear around, but as we saw with Beryl, there have been stretches of anomalously low shear, particularly in the Caribbean. The biggest issue has been near the African coast this month, which may also contribute to the explanation of why we haven't seen a super active month considering the other factors. Keep in mind however that we've had two hurricanes in August. Wind shear is driven largely by ENSO, which does not look to be getting hostile during the peak. As we close August, the MDR is open for business on the shear side, and I think it's only going to get more favorable as we move into mid-September through October with a cool neutral or Nina ENSO state. What shear is present near the CONUS will be a factor of what troughing is around during that time, so I wouldn't read too much into exact figures. It's about the overall theme. Importantly, I don't see any major issues either with anticyclonic wave breaking or TUTTs getting in the way of TC genesis this fall, which I think opens the tarmac for long runways for developing tropical cyclones to intensify into hurricanes and major hurricanes. This increases my confidence that this remains a quality over quantity type season, though we will certainly have short lived NS and hurricanes that fail to get to major status. 4. SSTs/OHC Not much needs to be said here. It's historically warm. Again. Unlike last year which needed to fight some hostile atmospheric conditions from the ENSO state, this year the atmospheric conditions (shear) should only help promote genesis, development, and intensification across the basin. Folks often look to SSTs and Oceanic Heat Content to quickly determine whether a season is active or not, but much more goes into it. What I see from the current layout of SST anomalies, as well as the scale and geographical extent of OHC, is that there is highest end potential across much of the basin if in situ shear and dry air are kept in check. I said it a few months ago, but Beryl was the canary in the coal mine, and I think was a truly meaningful test case for what was possible if the much talked about conditions for a hyperactive season converged. Parts of the basin may be running behind 2023 in terms of anomalies, but the anomalies this year are historic in their own right and critically, 2024 has much more favorable atmospheric conditions on balance. 5. MJO/CCKW Not much time will be spent on this, but we know that the timing of the MJO and CCKWs matter in lighting up the basin. Right now with a favorable MJO you'd expect the Atlantic to be active, but the EPAC is. Until that basin quiets down in about a week, we're only likely to see homebrew potential rather than a large scale change over the MDR. While these images may look more hostile in the Atlantic, I like seeing rising motion over the Indian Ocean as a signal for robust African wave activity. Climo should be able to overcome a "poorly timed" MJO. 6. SAL/Stability I saved this for last, and if you are still reading at this point it's because while all of the other major large scale factors seem to be in alignment for a hyperactive peak, SAL and stability issues have been a big fly in the soup. A few weeks ago, I posted in a thread that I thought the SAL would drop significantly in early August. It did happen to drop below the climatological norm, but rebounded in a big way after waves started moving off Africa much further north than we normally see. July saw historic outbreaks of SAL which was a reversal from a year ago. Now, while SAL is lower than its been, the seven day average (image courtesy of Michael Lowry), is on the upward bound of climatology. Dry air and stability issues are the primary culprit in us not seeing a higher amount of named storms IMO. Even with the three hurricanes we had, Beryl struggled to rapidly intensify near the Texas coast due to dry air entrainment, the same happened with Debby, and Ernesto had a shot to become a major hurricane but took too much time mixing out dry air north of the Antilles as it approached Bermuda. That's the only thing that kept them in check. With shear imparting the dry air, all three hurricanes were in near pristine conditions for rapid intensification. That speaks to how critical a factor dry air has been this season imo. I do think climatology will prevail in September and especially October when SAL and stability across the basin reach their nadir, but for a forecast of a hyperactive peak, this is the thing I'm watching closest. I will say, looking at the corridor of greater moisture along the traditional MDR path for CV waves and systems, I do think that once we start seeing waves come off Africa at a lower latitude, they will be able to develop much like Ernesto did. What the SAL also tells me is that the further west you go, the more likely a wave is to find favorable conditions. As I've already laid out, the Caribbean is ripe for activity with well below normal wind shear. It is also more unstable, further away from the influence of SAL intrusions over the eastern tropical Atlantic. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html These issues with stability aren't new in the basin. Dry air and stability have been a multi-year issue in suppressing activity in the eastern MDR. That history shows us that it hasn't had much of an impact during the peak of the season, and I expect that to be the case again. The western Atlantic will be the hotbed of above average activity even if SAL is above the climatological norm in early September. Overall I am making a bold call in forecasting a hyperactive peak, but I am choosing to look beyond the current surface depictions of the models and analyze the basin environment. It's about as favorable as it gets. I think that virtually all factors point to at least an above average peak between August 20 - October 20. Perhaps the SAL and MJO need to better align to get the lid removed from the basin, but I do expect the switch to flip and bring with it plenty of high end activity. My expectation is that with continued favorable conditions in the Caribbean and western Atlantic relative to the eastern MDR, that we see vigorous waves gradually develop in this region, with more eastern MDR activity once the sharp climatological decline of SAL takes hold in September. Unlike recent years, I think once the lid is off we're running all the way through the peak with very few breaks. This is the kind of year where late October and November could produce significant activity, so even if I am short on my H/MH projection those will still be possible through mid-November, especially in the Caribbean where OHC will be able to support it. I think the SAL and general dry air/stability in the basin suppresses NS activity early, but becomes less of a factor in September. That delay may be enough however to foreclose the high NS seasonal projections. Final Note: Landfall Odds The most impressive thing about this season so far is not that Beryl formed IMO, but that every system so far has made a landfall. Even Ernesto managed to directly impact Bermuda. Some of that is luck to be sure, but two hurricane landfalls on the CONUS before August 15 speaks to the broader steering pattern we've seen in the Atlantic, and weaker eastern MDR waves being able to skirt under breaks in the subtropical ridge and then developing when it's too late to escape. Fortunately for the US, Ernesto bucked this trend some and developed fast enough to be steered north by a trough. Statistically, the more active the basin is, the higher the odds of a landfall. The Gulf has been a hot spot for activity to say the least in recent years, and with my expectation that the Caribbean will be exceptionally active, I don't think it's going out on a limb in saying that there will be additional hurricane landfalls in the CONUS. To be clear, projecting landfalls at this range is more speculation than science, but I do believe the ongoing streak of major hurricane strikes on the US continues this season, and I think two major hurricanes will make landfall during this peak season forecast period. I do think that there will be at least one bona fide major hurricane threat to the U.S. East Coast as well, saying nothing of whether that's an actual hit or not, or what region of the coast. The last major EC strike was in 2004. Once the lid comes off, I expect it to be full throttle.

Got tied up at work yesterday. Should have it done today.