WxWatcher007

Adding the loop

It has definitely earned my respect this season.

Like Manda said, those higher winds still have to verify at the surface and I’m skeptical of that if the system is leveling out or weakening at landfall later. The inner core did do a good job of prohibiting dry air entrainment this morning to allow for this deep convection to persist, but that’ll become harder as the day progresses. I can see an official landfall of 90mph, but few sustained obs of 75-80 and scattered gusts thereabouts. I don’t see a secondary vortex, I think that’s the eyewall itself just becoming better defined partially.

It won’t close off fully, but the parts of the eyewall that are there are looking quite sharp on radar.

Rain has started here but not much going on yet. Pressure at ~1010mb.

Not much happening yet but the rain has started.

What do you think of the other two invests out there? Not much of a signal on the models but each look decent this morning.

Just looking across the basin this morning, all the invests (3!) look pretty solid, and the SE coast area that I’ve been talking about for a while is looking ripe. Think of 99L but much further south and with a ridge likely to develop over the top. Could bring a number of east coast impacts this weekend and early next week.

Now a lemon. Meanwhile, three invests in the MDR and they all look pretty good despite the barren landscape that is the tropical Atlantic.

Yeah as we get closer everything looks…ho hum. Even the track has settled I think.

Hybrid becoming tropical it seems to me. Gets its start with some kind of baroclinic assist then goes tropical as the original boundary dissipates.

Setting aside Francine, there’s a strong operational model signal for that SE coast area I’ve been highlighting to develop as soon as this weekend. Will need to watch how far north that tracks.

Yeah east side is looking pretty solid with the latest data. Let’s see what happens with future fixes. The eye looks well defined on radar.

First VDM came in with a pressure of 975mb, but again, nothing particularly impressive on the winds front.

Extrapolated pressure down to 969.2mb in the latest data batch. Edit: 968.3 extrapolated in the next set of data. Not seeing any impressive wind data yet, however.

The eye is evident on KHGX radar, but it’s hard to assess the actual structure at this distance. A new recon flight has just taken off so we’ll see what they find. Hurricane models continue to be very aggressive on on balance in the hours right before landfall with a strong inner core about 10mb deeper than the current pressure. Very deep convection continues at/near the center, and you can see how the jet interaction is helping this ventilate efficiently.

Now at 85mph/979mb. Core quickly coming together.

So far, the organization phase has continued without much disruption. As many here noted, now that Francine is accelerating away from the western Gulf coastline and no longer competing with the MCV like convection as it was earlier, it is in a more moist environment and taking advantage of very high OHC. Here you can see persistent deep convection—the kind that led to the early development of an eye yesterday—rotating into the center. Aloft, winds are responding with continued pressure falls and clear organization of a new inner core. Recon is now finding FL winds peaking between 85-89kts and a dropsonde confirmed pressure of 980mb. Critically, the latest VDM had this remark: EYEWALL HAS 75 PERCENT COVERAGE AROUND THE EYE AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ORGANIZED THAN ON PREVIOUS PASS The next few hours will be interesting. The earlier hurricane models got very aggressive while other guidance was more modest, due to the impact of dry air entrainment and shear. For now at least. The runway looks the clearest it has been for some level of takeoff, but time is limited. A more hostile environment before landfall awaits.

Also, in LA. Will post updates as I can.

Finally able to look at stuff. We’re starting to see more substantial pressure falls and perhaps structural improvements as drier air mixes out, but evidence suggests that the vortex is a bit tilted in response to shear. As @40/70 Benchmark wrote earlier, tonight is the time when we likely see a peak when most favorable conditions align. It’s delicate though—dry air entrainment could slow or halt any significant intensification tonight. I don’t think the vortex tilting matters as much yet. The organization of the inner core has an impact on tomorrow’s landfall intensity imo.

In Gonzales, LA, which is SE of Baton Rouge. Will post when I can. Not terribly enthused but we’ll see what happens tonight. Long day of travel but I think I’m in a good spot for now at least.