WxWatcher007

Mesoscale Discussion 0287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Areas affected...Hudson Valley region into parts of southern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 140454Z - 141030Z SUMMARY...Heavy wet snow will increase overnight, with 1-2 inch per hour rates possible, especially at higher elevations. DISCUSSION...At 0430Z, an intensifying cyclone is evident in WV/IR imagery well off of the Mid Atlantic coast (near 37N, 71W). A surface trough extends northwest of this cyclone, with an apparent mesolow (suggested by radar imagery and surface/ship/buoy observations) moving north-northeastward along the surface trough toward western/central Long Island, where the strongest 2-hour pressure falls are currently noted. Meanwhile, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward out of the OH Valley region toward the Northeast/New England. Increasing deep-layer ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough combined with persistent low-level moisture transport will intensify precipitation rates overnight from the Hudson Valley region into parts of southern New England. Temperatures remain near/above freezing across the region as of 04Z, though higher elevations and portions of the Hudson Valley have turned over to snow. For western MA/northwest CT/southern VT into adjacent portions of the Hudson Valley, limited near-surface warm advection along/west of the surface trough will allow precipitation type to remain as snow overnight, resulting in the potential for 1-2 inch per hour snow rates as precipitation intensifies. Farther east, stronger low-level warm advection results in some uncertainty regarding precipitation type at lower elevations, though very heavy wet snow rates will be possible at higher elevations in the Worcester Hills and vicinity overnight.

Heavy heavy rain. Shadowing never an issue when it’s liquid. 36/34

Canadian looked great the last few days too.

Right. I hope it’s wrong but I’m prepared for an LES type gradient because that’s what it looks like. It’d be horrific but it is what it is.

That would be catastrophic EOR. Dear Lord.

It is what it is. Enjoy yours too lol.

36.7/35 with all rain still.

Exactly. You just have to hope all hell breaks loose and you drop enough cement on the trees and lines that the grid collapses when the eyewall crosses.

Landfalling blizzard? Good luck out there.

That’s not bad for the WOR crew. Ugly for the rest of CT.

We need a widespread 4+ in The Valley to get close to that, I think.

Yeah, I’m long past ready to be done at this point. Punted in December. Watched people fawn over ten day virtual potential every week since. It’s like the clockwork orange scene but for four months.

Echoing this: no matter what happens the folks that get crushed should post plenty of pics and videos.

That's f****** awful. Absolutely f****** awful.

38.4/36 Rain .22 on the day

It really is. I’m mesmerized by the visible loop. It’s going to be a beast.

If it’s anything like tropical I think it’d be 00z, which isn’t particularly helpful for the GP because forecasts are out…and they’re overnight runs.

Yeah I don’t really get it, unless this is more of a research flight. God knows we need to understand wtf happened with the guidance here.

Oh you’re good. Everyone else not so much. I don’t even care at this point. Let’s just get on with it. Good luck up there.

And with their leader finally capitulating to the king of awful winters, the patient winter weenies of Connecticut quietly fold. Welcome to the other side.

Then this will be the worst winter in the history of Connecticut. Not even close. 1935 Boston Braves level of putrid.

43/37 Drizzle

I really do think that outside of Kev land and NW CT expectations should be low, but there’s a reasonable range of outcomes that includes 4-6” of cement that causes major issues. It’s the toughest forecast I’ve ever done.

Last call. Cut back from 2-4 to 1-3 in the southern zone and expanded it north a bit. Congrats NW and NE. Chips fall mode.