WxWatcher007

Meh is right. Maybe the Euro weeklies will be right in shifting the peak season ACE to ~Sept 23-mid October but I’ve written off the MDR at this point. Also, for all the NHC names everything crowd out there, 94L says hello.

With Francine disposed of, I’m finally on the board…on September 12 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 15 (1) Hurricanes: 10 (1) Major Hurricanes: 5 (0)

That’s why I don’t usually chase at the immediate coastline. I prefer wind, not water. (Except for Florence lol)

Looks like the signal has faded substantially but the general environment looks conducive for some kind of genesis—tropical or baroclinic.

From my vantage point it was a legit hurricane but most got through fine wind wise. A lot of outages and modest damage, but that’s to be expected with an intensifying 2 at landfall imo.

Peak season forecast going down in flames. MDR might as well be another planet. Nice job on the track. I think once we saw lightning going off upshear that should’ve told us what was coming. Having a FL wind of 106kt at landfall is pretty wild. That said…if this were 2020 or ‘05 or any true high end season that thing would’ve taken off as soon as it developed that first inner core off the Mexico coast and not looked back. Dry air be damned. I think it’s true that this is a quality over quantity season, but far from hyperactive or high end as a season.

I didn’t end up in the center, but this hurricane was legit in the region. Flash flood emergencies through metropolitan New Orleans (top ten daily rainfall) along with multiple hurricane force gusts in SE LA. Not like the monsters Ida and Laura, but a solid cane in its own right with RI up through landfall. The last FL wind I saw was 106kt and I saw a report of a 97mph gust west of NO. That’s impressive considering where this thing was structurally last night.

Flashes all night here

Just recorded a gust of 40.1mph

Business definitely picking up now lol

Business picking up…

Pressure here down to 1001mb with the wind gradually picking up. Nothing that impressive yet other than the clouds off the deck absolutely screaming by. Edit: but the power is flickering more

Last VDM had a FL wind of 102kt so despite the conditions Francine more than held its own until landfall. Impressive.

Pressure starting to fall a bit as winds pick up. First time it’s looked tropical out.

Francine up to cat 2

Category two now with max sustained winds of 100mph

This is quite impressive given the environment. Definitely defying the guidance that had decay at landfall.

99kt FL wind on the latest VDM

The hours before landfall as the eye wobbles are the absolute worst.

Yup, looks pretty steady state to me on this pass. Extrapolated pressure of 974.9mb in the center with peak FL winds between 85-88kt.

They turned back toward the storm. Approaching the center now. Peak SFMR of 72kt so far. Will wait until the pass completes for pressure data.