It’s an excellent night. Feels great outside with some nice cumulus adding to the sunset.
I know we kid but the time period mid June might be conditionally favorable for our first legit spin up looking at long range. Fits climo too.
Got a number of follower pics and videos showing legit severe. It’s been eastern CT’s season so far lol.
Most of the big factors for a hyperactive season seem baked in, but I suppose a fail mode could be wave breaking imparting shear frequently during peak season. Similar to what we saw a few years ago. That said, I think that’s unlikely.
Yup. May 23rd…
Extreme warmth both in extent and depth across the basin, classic AMO, patterns reinforcing weaker trades, and a coming Nina to abate shear.
It’s definitely time to think big about 2024.
High res looks active here in CT even as early as tomorrow morning, but not sure I see a legit severe threat tomorrow, especially if there’s early morning junk. HRRR goes wild though.