WxWatcher007

Blizzard or BS? A complex and highly sensitive evolution is expected for the major storm we've been tracking for a week. Best of luck, everyone. Currently 39.8/33 here.

You’re right, I could have worded better and I tried in the post below. I love my backyard and stuff but I’m looking at this purely from a forecasting perspective right now. Dead serious now. I think we’ve done an excellent job conveying the spread and uncertainty to our followers, but for me, it’s deeply concerning to see that this could really go either way. A less wintry scenario here is fine—people just go to school. But I really do worry about waking up tomorrow and people are unprepared for a far more impactful event on the wintry side. Not to be hyperbolic, but that could be disastrous.

I’ve never been part of a forecast like this. It’s truly extraordinary that we’re at game time and have this much spread potential. Normally I would have expected the high res to be torched with the globals gone wild. I’m having a hard time rationalizing taking the globals over the high res, when the high res should have a better handle on boundary layer and mesoscale features, other than looking at reputation of the globals. We’ve gotten spoiled with the technology at our disposal.

Jesus what a mess. The mesos look far more impactful than the globals here in CT. High high bust potential.

They should definitely be advisories. Not nearly enough confidence to get anywhere close to warning level. Conservative is the way to go here, especially in S CT. I’m still modestly confident we end up with something plowable in the interior, but honestly I just want this waiting crap to be over and see what falls. It’s absolutely an outlier, but the HREF stayed bullish at 00z. The high res is doing just enough to keep me intrigued imby.

Spoke too soon about the second half of the 00z guidance. Oh well.

Bunch of rain verbatim on Ukie

I understand not using the French or Icon, but the Canadian and RGEM are legitimate JV models IMO.

I’d be surprised if the Ukie and Euro don’t tick back toward favorable given the tenor of 00z, but we’ll see. Like I said a few days ago. Down to the wire. It will have been worth it if we thread the needle to a high impact obliteration.

I think the Canadian is going to crush. Again. Very consistent relative to the other guidance the last few days.

Totally agree. Interesting that 00z tonight is trying to play out in a similar fashion it did yesterday, when the 00z suite stopped a bad daytime trend. Hopefully now that the storm is taking shape we get consensus.

Flags for sure but we don’t need much to get a big dog back on the table

700 looks better too. Feeling a little better with the 00z suite so far.

I like what I see from the GFS. Colder surface on Tuesday from 18z. Looks like the bleeding stopped. Eastern Mass crushed at 42.

I hope it works out for you…and my backyard.

With the low tracking to the CT/RI border. Northern border.

That’s real??

The Commerce Department is sending a team now to drug test the office for shrooms.

How long until somebody is posting about the next ten day “potential”?

Down to the wire. Even if 00z pulled back from the brink I’m not sure I’d trust it. We had a lot of discussion but decided to stick with our map.

It’d be an epic disaster.

It’d be something if GON gets 2-3” and verifies a blizzard

I wouldn’t say they fell apart, but things became more tenuous. We crush without that random pos low pressure lobe, but it’s showing up enough to be a concern, especially in southern CT.

I really don’t want to write tonight lol