WxWatcher007

Just like winter there’s a line that can be walked. But wishcasting and mehcasting are the paths of least resistance. I agree to an extent. Looking at op runs are just weenie fodder at this range. Even looking at 500mb on them independently of one another you don’t gleam much if you’re just looking for will mby get something interesting. There’s a place for that for weenies (myself included so I’m not trying to be holier than thou) so I get it. No different than winter. BUT I do think that a long series of ensembles and op runs at range can tell you a lot about the steering environment and TC genesis/intensification environment if you’re willing to put on blinders on the other stuff. We know it’s “easier” to forecast ACWB, ridge/trough combinations, teleconnections, MJO/CCKW passage at range which all play substantial roles in tropical development and steering. Once there is a center then you can get to the other stuff, but going back to the early Debby conversation—for this area and I’d say for the entire east coast, you can see the outline of an ominous pattern/landfall window long before something develops. What drives me insane in this subforum uniquely is the rush to lock in 1938 or dismiss something that’s a threat even if it doesn’t necessarily end up 1938. You have to work the problem to the end with tropical. There are enough examples of massive guidance shifts just in the last half decade or so that impacted the U.S. or Atlantic Canada. Just my humble and long winded opinion lol. About everything lines up. I expect to be on the road a lot if hits aren’t poorly timed with work.

Seasons in seasons. About 1/3 of the way through August, the climo step down is gradually accelerating, and soon the dog days will turn into school days lol.

Wonderfully beneficial rains out there. Really good to see.

I didn’t realize you needed the rain that bad.

Recurve is always the betting favorite. That’s our climo. Often times you can see the recurve pattern a mile away, other times the steering signal is more interesting. This is the latter right now. If the trough were showing up as flat as a pancake or out in the Atlantic there wouldn’t be anything to discuss. We’ll see what it is should this wave develop in about a week, and when it’s actually approaching the ECONUS some days after that.

They’ve been on a heck of a heater.

I didn’t expect it D2.

Just need to see that the trough isn’t an automatic kicker. This is an eternity away and purely speculative obviously but you roll the dice with this look. Trough weakens and it’s gone, trough cuts off for real and it’s a LI Express.

For this far out, I just want to see what the trough looks like, and it has potential imo.

GFS should be interesting

GFS shows you exactly what I mean. Today’s trough cuts off and draws Debby north. If it were flat and progressive it would’ve kicked Debby east. The very next trough is in a different location, but it effectively cuts off too…right in the danger zone.

Kev knew

Not much but I’d keep an eye on it lol

I don’t have anything scientific here, but I do think seeing how that Midwest trough trended does show that there’s potential this month that future troughs could do the same. Maybe not enough to drive it to Buffalo lol, but I think we get another EC threat (or two) this month.

I think a slight is close to a lock. I’m tracking severe more than rain around here lol.

D2

I think it’s way too early to look at track specifics. The steering pattern broadly? Sure. We just saw how quickly things could change with Debby…and Beryl…

Quite a solid look on IR

Not a bad look at all on IR

It’s too early to really get a good sense of where it’ll track (see Debby forecast ten days ago) but the genesis signal is very strong and with good reason—this looks like a highly favorable environment across guidance.

We’re going to quickly pivot from Debby to this new lemon. Forget the op runs—the environment ahead looks favorable, and the steering pattern as it stands preliminarily is for a close approach. Beware the cutoff trough—if we can get one now, the door is opened for repeats.

Seeing several tornado warnings tonight in NC. Convection has really blown up. Will be an interesting day as Debby keeps moving along.

That actually sounds…pretty good (though I don’t smoke lol). We all have stories.