WxWatcher007

Yeah, the midseason shutoff was historic, and the late season explosion was historic. I don't think anyone called for the shutoff, but I did believe that once the lid came off the basin last year, that things would go into November. I look at it a little differently given the parade of really strong waves in the eastern Atlantic--had we not had stability issues basin wide the combination of exceptional SST/OHC and ENSO driven low shear would've led to a historic season. I think the risk this upcoming season is far more weighted toward an underperforming season than overperforming one. Totally agree with you on the Allison example. I do think though that some of these short fuse tropical systems should be named when the data says it. Minimal TS by their very nature are often ugly pieces of crap--that doesn't change that they're tropical. If a swirl would get named close to land, it should get named in the open Atlantic. Otherwise this becomes too subjective imo.

Beautiful! Spring is here! Being off the devices and outside is good for the soul. I’ve been more or less off the site for months and I’ve loved it. Kinda wish I knew what happened though.

Another F here, but we’re on to spring. Great graphics as always. I know that’s a lot of work.

Thank God. High of 86.6°. Totally fine with this being a one day shot across the bow. Climo norms are rising quickly and this can be a fantastic time of year before the heat arrives in force. Fortunately for ya it’s a one day hit. Anomalous stuff…just like waking up to measurable snow imby a week ago with a high of 39.1°. Out of place but plenty possible. I love the variety.

Tropical?

I think we’ll get a few CV storms—but I think most of the action is in the western Atlantic & Gulf. As for numbers, if I had to guess right now I’d probably go 18/10/4. If I had to range it it’d be 17-20 NS/8-11 H/ 3-5 MH

My 19” snow season says otherwise At least with severe, you know the climo sucks.

It’s not surprising to see SSTs come down in the tropical Atlantic given how historically high they’ve been, but there’s still plenty of warmth in the western Atlantic. OHC though is pretty solid in the Caribbean, and even just east of the Antilles (and note the loop current in the Gulf). As long as ENSO doesn’t lean Nino which seems unlikely, another active season is likely, even if not as historically active as recent years in raw numbers.

I measured .5” this weekend. 100%. Time for real spring.

Since @yoda summoned me I guess I’ll leave a couple cents here. While I do think solidly active is on the table, I’m still tempted to lean slightly above. 1) We don’t see anywhere near the expanse/depth of ++SST/OHC anomalies in the tropical Atlantic as we have in recent years. 2) While cool neutral ENSO is probably most likely, I think there’s still a little uncertainty with that. 3) The SST anomaly distribution in the tropical Atlantic could lend itself to more stability issues, which has been a dominant feature this decade. With a cool neutral ENSO it’s probably not a huge deal if we’re looking at a 17-20 NS season, but it’s something to respect. If I were to guess right now, I’d say it’s a homebrew type year with systems struggling again in the deep Atlantic but finding far more favorable conditions west, and perhaps a more muted season in activity across the board until we get to September. Major caveat being we’re only now coming out of the seasonal temperature nadir so let’s see if things are running hot mid May.

I am summoned!

It’s April. Winter had its chance DJFM and it failed miserably, per usual the last decade. Here in the hinterlands of the south, let it rain. I can see wanting to hang on as long as possible up there but it’s beyond useless imby.

I pop in just to see what’s going on and no surprise the same characters are still tracking ghosts god love ‘em.

70° on the nose. First of the year, thank God.

It’s still early, but I haven’t really seen much to change my thought that this season will “cool” to something closer to normal.

The best severe by far is on the front range of Colorado or in Kansas where there’s literally nothing but an occasional homestead or cow.

Truly truly wonderful I have to find the original image lol I only have a copy right now.

Huge fire on Long Island with the smoke plume showing up on radar.

With respect to those still tracking wintry chances, now that we’re in March I figured it’s time to fire up the grading thread. It’s another F for me, although the very wintry period and glacier in February, along with below zero temperatures here in central CT in January made that F a little harder to get to. Still, however, I ended up sub 20” of snow again and somehow worse off than last year. Even when I canceled winter in January my prediction for snowfall for the rest of the season was too optimistic which is insane. Good years will return eventually, but of the last seven here, only one got close to climo.

I can’t wait for the rubber band to snap back. I had a tortured relationship with this winter lol but I always genuinely appreciate any chance for wintry wx. I take nothing for granted.

Ok I’m going to get serious here. I know there’s a lot of apprehension right now, but one of the best lessons I’ve learned in life is this: what seems like a crossroads or inflection point today is often a footnote in your story years later. You should be immensely proud of what you’ve accomplished, and excited for your life and career ahead. I know you know that life and careers aren’t a straight line and certainly not as illuminated a path as we hope, but you will find your place, even if it takes a little time. Be encouraged, enjoy your final semester, and remember that hard work, openness to challenge, determination, and just being a good person that people want to be around can take you a very long way.

OH MY!

Interesting season. I doubt I see more meaningful snow but I had the longest snow cover since 2021. This year was more enjoyable for a time but had less snow than last year. I canceled winter in January but was like 50% too optimistic on snow for the rest of the season. March will probably be a torch for a time here followed by cold and rain into April lol.