WxWatcher007

Great day to wash my car

Last night I was watching TWC, and they were highlighting the January 2018 blizzard. It brought back some great memories of Ocean City.

It’s a niña. We’re on to 2023.

The only comfort that gives is that both football and tropical are around the corner. I love these long evenings.

DCA has to be getting smoked

Higher end moisture in these. Matter of time before warnings go up in DC proper if this continues.

Could see that FFW coming from a mile away. Stay safe, everyone.

That’s crazy. My brother was born in Hurricane Bob, and my dad used to tell the story of how he had to drive my mom to the hospital around downed trees and leaning power lines here in CT. I used to watch the TWC tropical update religiously. I was as big a tropical weenie as they came. I guess I still am since I post more about tropical than everyone on this site combined at times. I’m following my calling, but there’s always an itch to go back to school for a met degree and just focus on tropical.

There is no doubt in my mind that people would move right back to those areas.

I know we say it here every year, but the general public has no idea how fortunate we’ve been in recent years. Rapidly weakening tropical storms and brushes are nowhere near the power of an actual direct strike from a legit cane. Bob is probably the best example of what one of those could do. Because it’s harder for that flush hit here, I think it makes it all the the more damaging whenever it does happen. Right. The devil’s in the details and the thing is, we probably won’t have a good handle on the forecast until it’s literally on our doorstep. I went back to look at NHC forecasts from 48-72 hours out for a number of recent systems and it’s incredible how even excellent forecasts display significant uncertainty.

Seeing that forecast for Irene has me thinking. What’s the reasonable worst case scenario here? It seems to me, given the historical record of 1635, 1938, and 1954, that a high end category 3/low end category 4 of 125-130mph/940-950mb is the extreme upper end boundary. A 1 in 500 year event? First, it seems that any hurricane would need to be exceptionally strong as it reached the Bahamas. A high end 3 wouldn’t cut it as it’d almost certainly encounter weakening on final approach due to cooler SSTs north of the Gulf Stream, among other things. A high end 4 or a Dorian like intensity would certainly put us in the ballgame even if significant weakening occurs. I think it’d need to be a long track CV, because those would have almost certainly undergone ERCs that would both broaden the wind field and make it more inertially stable—less resistant to rapid weakening under marginally hostile conditions. Second, it’d be a delicate environment up the coast, because too far off the SE coastline and you miss higher SSTs and TCHP needed to maintain a high end hurricane. Too close and you risk a myriad of troubles, from land interaction to shear, to continental dry air intrusions. I think a system with a Carol like track in the western Atlantic (coming from north of the Greater Antilles via the eastern MDR) could thread the needle, especially since it’d get a final boost (or at least a shot to maintain intensity) by paralleling the NC coast. It’d probably weaken some, but if it reached the Outer Banks as a moderate cat 4, which is already asking a hell of a lot given the historical record, you’re really talking about a historic impact. Third, the track post Carolinas is everything. At least for CT, I think the worst case would be a slingshot north that takes the center just west of the Connecticut River and then bends NNE into CNE and NNE. At this point, if the other boxes are already checked we’re probably talking about a hurricane that has a large wind field and may be becoming post tropical so it wouldn’t matter as much that it’s rapidly weakening post landfall. Finally, it’d need to be moving very fast. That’s obviously a staple of bona fide tropical strikes in New England. The faster it moves the more intensity it can retain as it moves over the colder waters and inland. Honestly, even a legit cat 2 checking some of these boxes would be historic to catastrophic given the density of trees and number of weakened/dead ones still standing. It’s crazy to even think about. But I did.

I’m bored out of my mind so I used part of my lunch break to look at the NHC forecast for Irene. At one point five days out they had the center of a 70kt Hurricane Irene in central Maine. Yikes. Tropical is hard up here.

Any time you have a front draped like that during this boring time of year it’s worth a little attention, but the signal is weak at best right now. We’re about 3-4 weeks away from the pattern becoming much more favorable for TC genesis if the guidance is to be believed. The homebrew regions are warm, a niña seems a lock for the peak of the season, and the WAM is active which should mean plenty of good waves during CV season.

This—a pretty rare phenomenon in itself but it’s basically unheard of for a system to jump basins and then become a major hurricane.

Massive and razor sharp chunks of ice leveling structures and smiting nonbelievers?

Yeah unless things pop along a front, I think we’re quiet for a few weeks. Get your sleep now.

Good stuff. Setting aside activity, on balance the biggest CONUS event was Ida by a mile, which doesn’t really denote a memorable season in terms of lasting impact outside of the devastation in Louisiana and NJ/NY. The best way to look at it is this: Nobody talks about the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season—a below average season itself—they talk about the storm, Andrew. The same holds true for 1999, which was very active in terms of major hurricanes, and while one of those made landfall in the CONUS, it’s the category two hurricane, Floyd, that’s memorable in terms of impact. Those storms were the season. Surely severe in impact, but not reflective of the season on balance. On the opposite end, people know of years where there are multiple severe to catastrophic events across a region or multiple regions. 1954 (Carol, Hazel, Edna) 2004 (Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne) 2005 (Too many to name) 2017 (Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate—for Central America) 2020 (another obvious one IMO) Here, the seasons themselves are known. They are known not necessarily for an individual storm, but the number and ferocity of impacts. We’ll see what happens this season. Agree with 40/70 on New England. A lot of impacts which is statistically anomalous for sure, but outside of Ida in parts of CT and historic river flooding in some locations, nothing truly memorable. The October system was a beast though. That was my best chase all season. That was basically a category one hurricane impact for much of coastal Mass and the damage, while localized, was substantial.

I found this to be absolutely hilarious.

For posterity. Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Earlier microwave images reveal a well-developed inner core structure with a 10-nm-wide eye, and impressive curved band features in the west and south parts of the cyclone. The surrounding cloud tops have cooled quite a bit during the past few hours, but the eye temperature hasn't warmed that much. The initial intensity is increased to 100 kt for this advisory and is supported by a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. It appears as though modest northeasterly shear has begun to restrict the outflow some in the north portion of the cyclone, and this shear is expected to persist during the next 24 hours. Consequently, some fluctuations in strength are possible during the period and the NHC forecast shows a slight increase in intensity in 12 hours in deference to the recent inner core improvement. Afterward, the inhibiting shear should decrease, however,the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS intensity models show the cyclone traversing cooler oceanic surface temperatures and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic surrounding environment. A combination of these negative intensity contributions should cause Bonnie to slowly weaken through the remainder of the period and the official forecast follows suit. Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/12 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone should keep it on a west to west-northwest heading through the entire forecast period. Around mid-period, however, a weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop over the Baja California peninsula, which should temporarily slow Bonnie's forward speed. The track forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond day 3 and is based on the TVCE multi-model consensus aid. Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.3N 104.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 16.3N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 17.4N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 18.2N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 20.4N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

It’s my birthday! Now shower me with praise and wishes of successfully chasing a strong category two hurricane with a tractor tire eye!

This is my first dreary birthday in recent memory, though last year I was on my way to Florida to chase Elsa.

Definitely maximizing its potential out in the EPAC.