WxWatcher007

WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of the United States from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from St. Catherine's Sound to South Santee River. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border, and Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach southward is discontinued.

The core just looks so impressive. Wherever this comes ashore, it's going to be insane.

I mean…this is pretty wild.

Recon is still sampling, yes.

940.1mb extrapolated

New burst of lightning in the eyewall as more convection fires

After holding steady most of the evening, the pressure here has dropped about 4mb in the last hour. Not very breezy. I'm in Perry, FL.

Just look at the deep ring of convection around the center. Very impressive.

Such an interesting appearance. Extrapolated pressure down to 941.5mb on that pass.

Where is recon? If there were ever a time for it..

Looks like the goalposts are narrowing with the GFS ticking east again.

This is the surreal part of the chase. All the planning, prep, forecasting, and execution of the plan comes down to this, in a place that may be permanently transformed by what is about to unfold. I hope everyone here prepared and evacuated if told to. The surge is looking catastrophic.

The hype would somehow be more extreme than the historic event itself

00z spaghetti models

Relocated to Perry. Now we wait…

Relocated to Perry. Hoping I won’t need to do anything else.

Latest VDM with interesting characterization of the eye Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 22:11ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 12Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 21:44:51ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.28N 84.74WB. Center Fix Location: 180 statute miles (290 km) to the W (262°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 4kts (From the ENE at 5mph)F. Eye Character: RaggedG. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)G. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)G. Outer Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 84kts (96.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (99°) of center fix at 21:41:47ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 181° at 103kts (From the S at 118.5mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix at 21:40:55ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64kts (73.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (244°) of center fix at 21:46:18ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 313° at 64kts (From the NW at 73.6mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix at 21:47:27ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,458m (8,064ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,460m (8,071ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) from the flight level center at 21:40:55Z

Yeah, was just about to post a correction. Thanks.

NE eyewall sampled. 964.6mb extrapolated. FL winds peaked at 103kt. Peak SFMR of 84kt.

Look at the distribution of RI odds, particularly relative to climo.

Note how the NHC track is still east of the model consensus...that is still ticking west. I think there's lower than normal confidence in where the center makes landfall.