WxWatcher007

I just need it to be chaseable.

Tropical season can’t get here soon enough.

It may be a fail but at least it’s a pretty one.

Friend up in Maine said it was an active day.

Here’s hoping we get a few good statewide hits this winter. The last few seasons have strained my relationship with winter.

It’s a tough business searching for interesting wx in New England. The good stuff is few and far in between.

Ribbing of Wiz aside, he’s right. If we can’t get something marginally decent down here we should pack it up.

There it is

You had your wild severe streak. You’re good for another decade. Snow included

Making a run at 90 here at home with this clearing. That’d make Day 7 of the heat wave here. HFD is very close.

Would like to see the line to the NW fill in a bit, but I’d be surprised too if we didn’t get strong storms at least. It’s pretty much going the way it would have needed to…there’s clearing here and not too much crap to the south to rob CT like Thursday, or so I think..

Still think it’s a little early for a spike, but I’m sweating it a bit for forecasting purposes.

Storms also beginning to fire near the NY/MA border.

Congrats Long Island?

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and New England this afternoon through early evening. ...New England/Mid-Atlantic States... The region will be influenced by a low-amplitude shortwave trough and speed max today, with moderately strong mid/high-level winds noted in regional 12z observed soundings as far south as roughly the Pennsylvania/Maryland border vicinity. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon along and ahead of a surface cold front including near a pre-frontal trough. Pre-frontal showers and residual cloud cover persist particularly from New Jersey/eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England, but gradual destabilization and an erosion of boundary layer inhibition is occurring especially across southern New England late this morning and midday. Even with lingering residual cloud cover, the corridor of strongest destabilization this afternoon should largely parallel the I-95 general vicinity from Virginia into southern New England, where MLCAPE may reach/exceed 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes will generally range from a supercell-supportive 40-50 kt over New England to around 25-30 kt southwestward into Virginia/eastern West Virginia, where a deeply mixed boundary layer will nonetheless support pulse/multicell-related wind gust potential. Severe/locally damaging wind gusts will be the most common severe risk (almost exclusively) overall, but a tornado cannot be ruled particularly across southern New England where deep-layer shear and low-level shear/SRH will be stronger.

Whew boy

We’re in the same boat lol. Maybe today things switch up and south of me gets the goods.

First severe warning up on the MA/NH border.

Adding a visual to Wiz’s comment

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, northern-stream flow is becoming characterized by broadly cyclonic character across the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and Northeast, with the Great Lakes part being nearly zonal. This is in response largely to the presence of two dominant cyclones over Canada: 1. A long-lived gyre over the James Bay region, forecast to move eastward across northern QC. A shortwave trough over its southern sector is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the northern ON/QC border across northern Lake Huron and portions of Lower MI. This trough will pivot across southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley region today, with its southern fringe glancing the northern NY/northern New England area. A weaker, trailing vorticity lobe will move eastward from Lake Erie across NY this afternoon/evening, then weaken as it crosses New England. 2. A strengthening vortex digging southeastward from the SK/NWT border region across northern MB. Heights will fall across the Dakotas late in the period (overnight) as a basal shortwave trough approaches. In advance of that, a small shortwave trough -- initially apparent over southeastern MT/northeastern WY -- will move east-southeastward to central SD today, while weakening, then across southern MN overnight. At 11Z, the surface analysis showed a cold front from western NY across central OH, the lower Ohio River Valley, and MO Ozarks, becoming a warm to stationary front across southern KS to a low between LBL-GAG. By 00Z, the cold front should reach eastern New England, southern PA, eastern KY, western TN, then become a wavy/ quasistationary front over southwestern MO and southern KS. By 12Z, the front should extend across NJ to eastern KY, then quasistationary near its previous position across MO/KS. A separate cold front -- related to the trailing northern-stream cyclone over central Canada -- will move southeastward across the northern High Plains overnight, reaching from eastern ND to central WY by 12Z tomorrow. ...New England and northern Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form through this afternoon along/ahead of the surface cold front, near a prefrontal surface trough, and farther south over portions of the Virginias, over strongly heated higher terrain in the warm sector. An existing plume of clouds/precip and widely scattered embedded thunderstorms, from northern ME into PA, should continue to break up gradually on the north end this morning, permitting some destabilization in its wake, but also setting up localized to mesobeta-scale areas of differential heating that may aid storm initiation from midday into the afternoon as well. Scattered damaging gusts, and several severe/50-kt gusts, are possible with the midday/afternoon activity. A marginal/conditional tornado threat also may exist over northern areas, where low-level and deep shear will be the greatest under relatively maximized flow aloft. Instability generally will increase with southward/southeastward extent away from the early cloud cover, as well as between it and the front, under cooler air aloft. Meanwhile, boundary-layer moisture will remain favorable across the entire swath (i.e., surface dewpoints upper 60s to low 70s F). This will offset modest midlevel lapse rates to foster a plume of MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg from northern VA and the Chesapeake Bay area, narrowing northeastward to the southern/eastern coastal areas of New England away from marine-layer influences. MLCAPE should diminish northwestward from there, but still may reach 500-1200 J/kg over ME, except for Downeast areas with onshore flow. Forecast effective- shear magnitudes range from a supercell-favoring 40-50 kt over northern New England to around 20-30 kt or less across central VA to eastern WV, though a more strongly-heated, deeply mixed boundary layer may develop in southern areas in support of pulse/multicell gust potential.

Will those lapse rates remain through the day, though? I like seeing DCAPE over 1k but I have to admit I’m still a little skeptical. Still think it’s active, but maybe not realizing today’s full potential. I’ll readily admit though that I’m far more in my wheelhouse with tropical than severe.

There is very little reason at this time to think this season will end up anything other than above average, though the MDR is a little cooler than I'd probably expect. That said, below the surface, things still look fine, especially in the western Atlantic. The monsoon trough is an issue right now in the MDR, but that won't last forever and even if it did have an extended stay, as CV season begins waves often muddle through a hostile eastern MDR to find more favorable conditions further west. No concern over a busted forecast at this time. As for the steering pattern, that's hard to predict five days out let alone 4-8 weeks. Stick with climatology and the statistical analysis of past activity. The more active, the greater the risk to the US and Caribbean.

I was watching that line and then the radar went down. Looked pretty good pre-passage lol.

Agree. I do think the shear forecast will make tomorrow interesting, even if instability is capped for lack of a better term. I am just dubious of the "outbreak" language in that FB post.

I don't know about tornado outbreak...I care less about CAPE for that and more helicity especially near the surface. I do think tomorrow has some potential for damaging winds and maybe a couple spinners if we don't get crapvection in the morning. SPC didn't hint at an ENH this afternoon, but let's see what tomorrow holds. It does look pretty legit on paper IMO.