WxWatcher007

65kt intensification in 24 hours.

Not worth much right now but the Euro is consistent in bringing whatever happens in the Gulf northeast. Could be a good rainmaker for some further up the coast?

Darby is a beaut. RI ongoing this morning.

Burlington is beautiful. Spent time up there last week for the first time. Better there than Texas. It could get ugly there this week with a big heat wave.

12z Euro is quite bullish. It meanders a low off the northern Gulf, strengthens it to around 992mb and tracks it NE through the southeast. That would be interesting.

Don’t ever change.

Looks like it's time to watch the northern Gulf with a casual eye, as the NHC now gives a 20% 5 day chance for development along a front. The signal has been weak but consistent on the GFS/Euro, and the ensembles overnight, especially the EPS, showed a modest signal for some type of development. Would fit climo. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low pressure is expected to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico from a decaying frontal boundary currently located over the southeastern United States. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts just offshore of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the middle to later part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rains will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coastline from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation change through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Papin

While the Atlantic basin is quiet and should remain so as we wait for the large scale pattern to change in 2-3 weeks, it's time to watch our tried and true method for homebrew : stalled fronts. The guidance has had a weak but consistent signal that a stalled front in the Gulf will be the focal point for an area of low pressure to develop along the northern Gulf coast. Overnight, both the operational GFS/Euro and their ensembles presented a growing signal for some disturbed weather with development potential. I'm a bit lukewarm on it right now, given proximity to land and potential for shear/dry air, but it's a little early to really get into details. It's something to watch with a casual eye. Why? The northern Gulf has some of the highest SST anomalies in the entire Atlantic, and the warmest SSTs, as is often the case. It's still impressive to see though, and heightens the chance that good convection that can organize gets going in that region. One other thing to note--not necessarily for this potential system but rather the future--there is a sizable warm eddy that could become trouble down the road for a CV that gets to the Gulf. Finally, I'll just draw your attention to TCHP across the basin. The Caribbean is always loaded but off the SE coast and in the Gulf--prime homebrew regions, the building warmth is on par with our recent well above average seasons. While the focal point along the front this time will be the Gulf, given the warmth and climo off the SE coast we shouldn't be surprised if we see potential jump to the SE coast in the next 10-15 days as we see fronts continue to make it south given the current upper level pattern. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low pressure is expected to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico from a decaying frontal boundary currently located over the southeastern United States. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts just offshore of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the middle to later part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rains will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coastline from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation change through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Papin

The most dangerous chase of my life happened here in CT. I was trailing a line of severe thunderstorms and crossed an area that had flash flooding ongoing. That was as white knuckle a drive as I’ve ever done. Fun fact, I carry a life jacket on most of my chases just in case…

Great day to wash my car

Last night I was watching TWC, and they were highlighting the January 2018 blizzard. It brought back some great memories of Ocean City.

It’s a niña. We’re on to 2023.

The only comfort that gives is that both football and tropical are around the corner. I love these long evenings.

DCA has to be getting smoked

Higher end moisture in these. Matter of time before warnings go up in DC proper if this continues.

Could see that FFW coming from a mile away. Stay safe, everyone.

That’s crazy. My brother was born in Hurricane Bob, and my dad used to tell the story of how he had to drive my mom to the hospital around downed trees and leaning power lines here in CT. I used to watch the TWC tropical update religiously. I was as big a tropical weenie as they came. I guess I still am since I post more about tropical than everyone on this site combined at times. I’m following my calling, but there’s always an itch to go back to school for a met degree and just focus on tropical.

There is no doubt in my mind that people would move right back to those areas.

I know we say it here every year, but the general public has no idea how fortunate we’ve been in recent years. Rapidly weakening tropical storms and brushes are nowhere near the power of an actual direct strike from a legit cane. Bob is probably the best example of what one of those could do. Because it’s harder for that flush hit here, I think it makes it all the the more damaging whenever it does happen. Right. The devil’s in the details and the thing is, we probably won’t have a good handle on the forecast until it’s literally on our doorstep. I went back to look at NHC forecasts from 48-72 hours out for a number of recent systems and it’s incredible how even excellent forecasts display significant uncertainty.

Seeing that forecast for Irene has me thinking. What’s the reasonable worst case scenario here? It seems to me, given the historical record of 1635, 1938, and 1954, that a high end category 3/low end category 4 of 125-130mph/940-950mb is the extreme upper end boundary. A 1 in 500 year event? First, it seems that any hurricane would need to be exceptionally strong as it reached the Bahamas. A high end 3 wouldn’t cut it as it’d almost certainly encounter weakening on final approach due to cooler SSTs north of the Gulf Stream, among other things. A high end 4 or a Dorian like intensity would certainly put us in the ballgame even if significant weakening occurs. I think it’d need to be a long track CV, because those would have almost certainly undergone ERCs that would both broaden the wind field and make it more inertially stable—less resistant to rapid weakening under marginally hostile conditions. Second, it’d be a delicate environment up the coast, because too far off the SE coastline and you miss higher SSTs and TCHP needed to maintain a high end hurricane. Too close and you risk a myriad of troubles, from land interaction to shear, to continental dry air intrusions. I think a system with a Carol like track in the western Atlantic (coming from north of the Greater Antilles via the eastern MDR) could thread the needle, especially since it’d get a final boost (or at least a shot to maintain intensity) by paralleling the NC coast. It’d probably weaken some, but if it reached the Outer Banks as a moderate cat 4, which is already asking a hell of a lot given the historical record, you’re really talking about a historic impact. Third, the track post Carolinas is everything. At least for CT, I think the worst case would be a slingshot north that takes the center just west of the Connecticut River and then bends NNE into CNE and NNE. At this point, if the other boxes are already checked we’re probably talking about a hurricane that has a large wind field and may be becoming post tropical so it wouldn’t matter as much that it’s rapidly weakening post landfall. Finally, it’d need to be moving very fast. That’s obviously a staple of bona fide tropical strikes in New England. The faster it moves the more intensity it can retain as it moves over the colder waters and inland. Honestly, even a legit cat 2 checking some of these boxes would be historic to catastrophic given the density of trees and number of weakened/dead ones still standing. It’s crazy to even think about. But I did.

I’m bored out of my mind so I used part of my lunch break to look at the NHC forecast for Irene. At one point five days out they had the center of a 70kt Hurricane Irene in central Maine. Yikes. Tropical is hard up here.

Any time you have a front draped like that during this boring time of year it’s worth a little attention, but the signal is weak at best right now. We’re about 3-4 weeks away from the pattern becoming much more favorable for TC genesis if the guidance is to be believed. The homebrew regions are warm, a niña seems a lock for the peak of the season, and the WAM is active which should mean plenty of good waves during CV season.