WxWatcher007

PTC Two coming at 5pm.

PTC Two coming at 5pm.

100% It’s cheaper, it’s easier, and often a better experience. I can swap between games and toss ones that are clunkers.

We have wind (trade aided) but now LLC yet.

I really want to find time to do a tropical update. Ugh. Recon has arrived at the invest. This one is more organized now that it’s moving past 50W, but we’ll see if it’s enough to to get designated. It’s going to pass very low, almost scraping South America, which is pretty uncommon, en route to Central America. Meanwhile the gfs continues to show development of the wave after 94L. I’m fact the 12z run takes it into Florida next week as a weak TS. The environment is much more hostile after 94L so grain of salt there. Ensembles have been showing a signal though, hence the lemon issued today.

Recon has arrived at the invest. The key thing is whether it has a closed LLC.

Months and months of monotony.

Happy birthday!

Recon is scheduled to investigate this afternoon.

Yeah, it looks like this one stays south. Interestingly, it looks like the ensembles are hinting at the following wave having a shot at development.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Tropical Atlantic: The low-level wind field associated with a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean has become better defined today, but the wave is only producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Tropical Atlantic: The low-level wind field associated with a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean has become better defined today, but the wave is only producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

I’ve noticed this on the guidance and yeah, maybe some weak homebrew for the Gulf possible.

The wave had been designated Invest 94L.

I love big heat, so this is really cool lol

It’s early so it’s just speculation at this point, but we know that given how far south the wave is and the time of year, this one is unlikely to gain a lot of latitude before getting into the central Caribbean. That said, once it gets there, the ensemble guidance today has been less aggressive with ridging. This one could be a long tracker with an eventual trip to the Gulf/SW Atlantic. It does kind of have an Elsa vibe. Long way to go obviously…

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a bit more concentrated this evening, and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week as this system moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Papin

20/40 odds now and that should only go up. The upper environment to the west, especially in the Caribbean, is highly anomalous with very little shear. We’ll see if the current wave is able to maximize potential should the pattern materialize, but it’s one to watch.

12z EPS

Euro comes in hot with development of the wave in 5 days. Operational guidance at this range should certainly be taken with a grain of salt, but given the awfully favorable upper level environment, I do think there’s greater than 50% odds for another named storm to develop next week. I’m interested. With the wave being so low in latitude, the odds of it hitting something are high. Watch the amplitude of the ridge…

The 12z guidance so far today is a little more aggressive with TC genesis.

The EPS is now squarely on board with tropical genesis occurring with the current wave in the eastern Atlantic. It’s early climo wise for action in the MDR and east/central Caribbean, but guidance across the board shows a relatively favorable upper level environment with dramatically reduced trade winds. Anomalous for this time of year. The wave itself is convectively active, but disorganized. The NHC now has a lemon on it. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development of this system by early next week as the disturbance moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Yeah it’s been pretty dry here. The rain is welcome. At the very least it’s a change of pace. Clearly I wouldn’t do well in San Diego.

Still a little early for CV season, but now it’s time to start watching the MDR with a closer eye.