WxWatcher007

Yeah, we know how to miss a great opportunity around here lol. Nice lightning producer out near Goshen.

Yeah not thinking widespread, but an active afternoon seems on tap which is nice.

The watch is up for Litchfield and Hartford counties.

Woah, that’s intriguing.

It's good to finally have something worth posting about I just went through the GEFS and EPS, it looks like one of the main differences is where the energy coalesces. On the GEFS, the signal is for more eastern development in the western Caribbean, which the EPS mostly keeps things suppressed and develops more in the EPAC. Climo kinda favors EPAC right now, but if we can get moisture to stream more north toward the Yucatan, that increases odds of something forming on our side of tracks. Still not quite ready for primetime yet with any higher end tropical development absent excellent upper level conditions, IMO.

I was surprised to see that 45% wind too. Hopefully we can at least get a line that holds together near central CT so I can get good vid/pics.

Good luck!

Congrats. Just happened to roll snake eyes with cloud cover here.

Scattered clouds here are making it hard to see anything.

An 18z GFS wouldn’t be shocking. Sloppy system that scoots northward and interacts with a trough to bring rain to the SE.

I think the gfs has become a good tropical model, and in some ways, better than the euro, but it can get too ahead of itself in tropical genesis this time of year in the western Caribbean. This graphic is dated since we’ve seen preseason activity every year basically since this but climo favors western Caribbean. If you don’t get activity squashed into the eastern pacific, as is usually the case this early when high pressure dominates the southeast. This far out, I’m not buying yet, but I have one eye on it. I’m probably at a 2/10 in terms of interest right now.

Preseason is here, and for the last half decade we've had action in the basin. The guidance, mainly the GFS, has been consistent in signaling the first potential development of the year in the western Caribbean before entering the Gulf, but I'm skeptical. That said, it's probably time to fire up the legacy thread. With a Nina present and likely through the summer, another active season is expected. Let's begin.

Yeah, I’ll try to fire one up tonight.

Silly GFS

D3 slight risk for most of the region.

Ah yes, the good ole GFS. I’m not quite ready to run with anything. Excited to get back in the swing of things soon though.

You rang?

We burn?

Dusting off the old camera!

Gorgeous evening. Dusting off the old camera.

I hope the divorce lawyer is a good one