WxWatcher007

I should be out there

Ugh, missed opportunity for me. I wouldn’t be able to make it there in time due to work.

Honest to God part of me wants to pack up and head to Ohio to chase…

Henri?

Those are great shots.

Feel better

It’s a pretty big signal. Hard to believe we’re about a third of the way through June. The next six weeks are huge for the MDR with regard to warming.

This tweet brings up an excellent point. It was certainly impactful in the rainfall department, but in the Gulf it never quite got organized enough to get classified as a named entity.

From underperforming in the Gulf, to overperforming in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 PM AST Sun Jun 05 2022 The satellite presentation of Alex has evolved from a more classic sheared tropical cyclone this morning to that of an extratropical transitioning cyclone. There are still some fragments of convection near the center, but most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is well removed from the center in a band around the eastern portion of the circulation. This change in structure is due to an approaching mid- to upper-level trough and associated dry air that has become entrained into the circulation. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft observations and data from NOAA buoy 41048 indicate that Alex is slightly stronger. Reports from a center drop from the aircraft showed that the pressure had fallen to around 984 mb, and the buoy reported a peak one-minute wind of 52 kt at 4 meters. Based on these data the initial intensity has been set at 60 kt. However, the cyclone may already be beginning to fill as the latest reconnaissance aircraft pass through the center reported that the pressure had risen 4 mb. Alex will be moving over cooler waters and into a higher shear environment during the next 12-24 hours, therefore weakening should commence very soon. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest the system will struggle to redevelop deep convection near the center and the system is now forecast to become post-tropical by 24 hours, if not sooner. The global model guidance now also indicates that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed along a frontal boundary as a new baroclinic low develops from a strong mid-latitude trough moving southeastward from Atlantic Canada in a day or two. As a result, the new NHC forecast calls for absorption within the new low within 48 hours. Alex is moving 060/24 kt. The cyclone should remain on a general east-northeastward motion during the next day or so, with the center passing north of Bermuda on Monday. The new forecast is again faster than the previous advisory and lies near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday, and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late tonight and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 32.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 33.7N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 35.3N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/1200Z 37.4N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Should be up to 55kts now based on dropsonde.

This recon mission is actually pretty interesting. As the NHC notes in their 11am discussion, while the FL winds are quite impressive for a storm with this kind of organization, the winds have not translated down as efficiently. This would be making a run as a hurricane if they did. We'll see if that happens before the intensification window closes tonight.

Up to 60mph now. Someone update the thread to reflect this is a legit tropical storm now pls.

Looks awfully disorganized at this hour.

I don’t know why my wife took that picture of me. I am retired!

I doubt we see a name at 5pm. Looks like a PTC to me as I don’t really see a tight low level center based on recon.

Recon en route Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these areas later today. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. These heavy rains could cause scattered to numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Beven

Like last summer. Went from drought “concerns” to weekly flash flooding. Elsa, Fred, Henri () and the big dog—Ghost of Ida.

This is pretty significant. This is about as aggressive a forecast you can have.

Not following terribly closely, but shame you couldn’t get on that Scranton cell. It looks nice.

You and Wiz need a trip to Kansas.

Yeah, it’s totally unsurprising an early season system struggles with shear. Been a while since we had June eye candy.

I never even realized he was a poster