WxWatcher007

Hello, Ana!

Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the central convection associated with Ana has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with a complex of small bands near the center at this time. The initial intensity will be held at 40 kt based on the latest intensity estimate from TAFB, although recently-received ASCAT data suggests this could be a little generous. Although the cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, Ana remains a subtropical storm based on its position near the center of a large upper-level low pressure system and the current lack of anticyclonic upper-level outflow. The initial motion is 270/3. Ana and the large low it is embedded in are expected to turn northward later today as a developing mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Canada and the New England states erodes the subtropical ridge west of Ana. After that, the storm is expected to turn northeastward on the southeast side of the mid-latitude cyclone. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than, the various consensus models. Little change in strength is expected for the next 12 h or so. After Ana recurves, a combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should cause the storm to gradually weaken tonight and Sunday. The large-scale models agree upon Ana opening up into a trough of low pressure in 36-48 h, and the official forecast shows this happening just after 48 h. The remnant trough will likely be absorbed by a cold front associated with the mid-latitude cyclone shortly thereafter. The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 34.3N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 34.8N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 35.8N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 37.2N 57.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 39.7N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

91L up to 60% odds. Not a lot of time left to develop. 2pm outlook. Odds up to 60%. 2. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday. Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2pm outlook. Odds up to 60%. 2. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday. Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Very close to advisories per the 2pm outlook. Still at 90% odds.

The NHC started naming subtropical storms in 2002 but they had a separate designation (numbers, rather than a name) for decades. More info here: https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/tropical_stuff/sub_extra_tropical/subtropical.htm

This one has shown up pretty quickly, as it wasn't designated until late yesterday as a potential area of interest. The environment is marginal in this region, especially with regard to SSTs near the coast. It's early for a system in this particular spot, but as you can see, 91L has a fairly robust mid and developing low level circulation while devoid of significant convection. This one could become a short lived depression or storm before crossing the Texas coastline in the next day or so. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 2. Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Ok, it's time to get back into the swing of things. This is our first cherry of the season and will likely become a named storm, extending the streak of named preseason storms to 7 years. Not expected to have any US impacts. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure area centered about 450 miles east-northeast of Bermuda have become better organized during the past several hours. The low has not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics. However, if current trends continue advisories could be initiated on the system later today or tonight as it moves westward to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda. Subsequently, the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday. Additional information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Invest 91L is looking more organized this morning and quickly went from nothing to an orange. Still a marginal environment, especially near the coast. Needs some convection to raise the chances of TC genesis and bring the first landfall of the season. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure area centered about 450 miles east-northeast of Bermuda have become better organized during the past several hours. The low has not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics. However, if current trends continue advisories could be initiated on the system later today or tonight as it moves westward to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda. Subsequently, the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday. Additional information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Beven/Papin

Happy birthday

I reached out to a mod. Hopefully we can fix it.

I was on my way out but some friends pulled me back. I know…it totally sucks. Not sure why a whole thread needs to go when the OP does. Didn’t realize I started so many threads but I guess the last few years it’s just been me and you starting these things here. Maybe an admin can see if they’re archived somewhere?

NHC dropping a lemon on that disturbance off the Texas coast now. 20% odds of development.

Good spot. Pretty easy to head west, east, or south into Florida from there to chase.

12z Euro could be spazing out but it takes that little MCS off the Texas coast and develops it into a short-lived low over the next 24-48 hours. These old features are a way to get tropical genesis, but the SSTs off the Texas coast are marginal. Wonder if the ensembles follow. Last year the Euro really struggled with TC genesis.

NOAA outlook has arrived and no surprise it’s calling for another active season. MDR (Main Development Region) remains behind last year’s historic pace in temp anomalies but just like the past few seasons, we’re seeing big warmth in the homebrew regions. Given that a neutral ENSO reduces shear, that’s a meaningful signal for a favorable western Atlantic provided the steering pattern is ridge dominant. SST Depth 26° C TCHP Current Anomalies (note that the SST distribution in the subtropics north of the MDR now tends to translate to above normal MDR temps during the peak of the season)

Yeah, nothing of interest for the US but it’ll likely continue the streak of preseason development.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms has developed several hundred miles east of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within this broad cloud system a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda by tomorrow and produce gale-force winds. The low is then forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters on Friday, and will likely become a short-lived subtropical cyclone late Friday and into the weekend near and to the northeast of Bermuda. The system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing system, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

40% now with regard to 5 day odds.

That's exactly what happened. I was leaving the board and was preparing to delete my account but asked an admin to try to save the threads. I guess that didn't work out... I'm not sure if they're archived somewhere or not. I guess I started a lot of prolific tropical threads. Sorry guys.

We're baaaaacckkk Another active season is expected, though there is enough uncertainty with ENSO that a hyperactive season seems unlikely at this point. We have our first orange of the season. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda by tomorrow afternoon and produce gale-force winds. The low is then forecast to move west-southwestward over warmer waters on Friday and could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone over the weekend to the northeast of Bermuda. The system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by Monday. For more information on this system, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Blake

Tropical?

I’m back home now.