WxWatcher007

If it even develops…

Not in Tolland apparently

RIP Stein. The drought, not the man.

It’s a complicated setup. It’d take time even in a great environment. Probably worth an invest though given the other crap we’ve had designed so far this season.

Got a good one out today. Felt good.

If it's anything like me actually seeing interesting weather, never.

AND I ******* MISSED IT

I just deleted a post that would have gotten me a timeout and then deleted another that would have had my wife put me on the couch for a month. I am uncharacteristically apoplectic right now and I will simply ask for thoughts and prayers.

I just had a meltdown of epic proportions missing that tornado warned storm.

Caught a time lapse of when it blew up. Awesome stuff. Will post later.

We’re not in Kansas, but boy is it beautiful. This is the backside of the line looking toward Tolland.

What a beaut. Severe warned storm just north of Hartford.

I track everything this time of year so I’m a little different, but yeah, it’s boring out there in the Atlantic relative to what we should be seeing. It’s really put up or shut up time for the tropical Atlantic. I do think we get something out of that area next week.

It’s usually quiet here, but I love the wx. Even if we have above average temps, the days and evenings are fantastic on balance. October has produced some GREAT storms recently.

Blasphemy. September is easily the best month.

Disregard the crap over Africa lol, but with the guidance starting to converge on something developing in the MDR, odds are likely going up that we have something real in the next 5 days. GFS continues to go way too wild with the Caribbean feature, but I still think that's one to watch too.

Gotta see what happens when the CV wave and this area interacts, but it's looking increasingly likely that something come out of this. Maybe in time to prevent an August shutout, though it'll add virtually no ACE to the monthly total of...zero.

Nothing like college. The real golden years with no responsibility.

Looks like the GFS moved toward the Euro at 00z

You can get stuff to pop out of that--we just saw that with the wave that's now in the eastern Caribbean. The Euro and GFS differ in their latest runs. The Euro tries to get the eastern wave (the right near the CVs) to interact with part of the trough and that becomes a TC. The GFS, probably due in part to another burst of dry air, keeps everything strung out. I think the main takeaway is that there's a real chance for development in the tropical Atlantic. How high I don't really know. I think models are going to struggle, especially in this environment, to pick up where and how in that region. Posting the ops because these are inside 90 hour forecasts.

It's the monsoon trough inside the ITCZ. This can have an impact on eventual TC genesis, but the feature itself doesn't become tropical. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N17W southwestward to across the Cabo Verde Islands to 14N30W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 10N55W. In addition to the deep convection noted with the easternmost tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 30W and 37W. The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends east from Costa Rica near 10N83W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N76W to the coast of Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 13N in the SW Caribbean Sea. https://severeweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV_Workshop2017/05b_MonsoonTrough_HughCobb.pdf

Hyperactive ain’t happening. We can barely get clouds. Let’s get the show on the road

What about a trifecta? Just kidding. There will be no hurricanes this year.