WxWatcher007

From zero to two invests!

Just updated the OP to provide a little more context.

This evening the NHC designated the broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic Invest 91L. This began as a complex interaction between the most vigorous African wave of the season thus far (top), and a feature in the monsoon trough (bottom). There was growing consensus in development in the ensembles, and that is slowly being realized as the two features in the August 25th image above began to interact and form the broad low we see this evening. There is strong consensus on the guidance that this becomes a tropical cyclone in the next five days, with the Euro operational model and ensembles showing tropical cyclone genesis in the next 48-72 hours. The other guidance also shows development, increasing confidence that despite the omnipresent dry air that has dominated the Atlantic, this area has the best odds yet to overcome and develop. The ensemble guidance and operational models, once again led by the Euro, show a potentially favorable environment as the low reaches the SW Atlantic. It is early to discuss track guidance as we do not have a well-defined low yet, but for now at least, long range guidance suggests ridging in the Pacific Northwest that may allow for troughing to keep this one away from the US coast. Again, very early and not worth much discussion yet IMO. The first step is development, and we will see if this gradual organization over the course of the day and evening convective activity allows for us to break the named storm drought.

Life above the tree line is a whole different world. You’ll love it regardless of the direction. Congrats.

12z EPS—It’s a pretty strong signal that this doesn’t really get going until the Antilles, but development likely happens sooner. Not really thinking about track at this point.

I’ve been fortunate to accomplish a lot in life so far, but one of my greatest came two years ago when I successfully chased Hurricane Laura. A beast.

I need the rain

I’m not doing play by play, but the Euro is relatively robust for the disturbance even at 24h.

GFS continues wanting to develop the Carribean disturbance which counters upper ridging with a TUTT thereby inhibiting favorable conditions for the Atlantic system. The ECMWF is completely opposite with no WCARIB development thereby allowing a nice upper level pattern to develop downstream for a hypothetical hurricane nearto or north of the Greater Antilles. I still think that Caribbean disturbance has a chance, but I’m not as bullish as the GFS lol.

Yeah, far from a slam dunk imo. That said, I’m a little wary of the gfs having so much troughiness out there. It seems to try to roll a lot of dubious stuff up.

If it even develops…

Not in Tolland apparently

RIP Stein. The drought, not the man.

It’s a complicated setup. It’d take time even in a great environment. Probably worth an invest though given the other crap we’ve had designed so far this season.

Got a good one out today. Felt good.

If it's anything like me actually seeing interesting weather, never.

AND I ******* MISSED IT

I just deleted a post that would have gotten me a timeout and then deleted another that would have had my wife put me on the couch for a month. I am uncharacteristically apoplectic right now and I will simply ask for thoughts and prayers.

I just had a meltdown of epic proportions missing that tornado warned storm.

Caught a time lapse of when it blew up. Awesome stuff. Will post later.

We’re not in Kansas, but boy is it beautiful. This is the backside of the line looking toward Tolland.

What a beaut. Severe warned storm just north of Hartford.

I track everything this time of year so I’m a little different, but yeah, it’s boring out there in the Atlantic relative to what we should be seeing. It’s really put up or shut up time for the tropical Atlantic. I do think we get something out of that area next week.