WxWatcher007

This one has shown up pretty quickly, as it wasn't designated until late yesterday as a potential area of interest. The environment is marginal in this region, especially with regard to SSTs near the coast. It's early for a system in this particular spot, but as you can see, 91L has a fairly robust mid and developing low level circulation while devoid of significant convection. This one could become a short lived depression or storm before crossing the Texas coastline in the next day or so. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 2. Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Ok, it's time to get back into the swing of things. This is our first cherry of the season and will likely become a named storm, extending the streak of named preseason storms to 7 years. Not expected to have any US impacts. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure area centered about 450 miles east-northeast of Bermuda have become better organized during the past several hours. The low has not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics. However, if current trends continue advisories could be initiated on the system later today or tonight as it moves westward to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda. Subsequently, the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday. Additional information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Invest 91L is looking more organized this morning and quickly went from nothing to an orange. Still a marginal environment, especially near the coast. Needs some convection to raise the chances of TC genesis and bring the first landfall of the season. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure area centered about 450 miles east-northeast of Bermuda have become better organized during the past several hours. The low has not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics. However, if current trends continue advisories could be initiated on the system later today or tonight as it moves westward to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda. Subsequently, the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday. Additional information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Beven/Papin

Happy birthday

I reached out to a mod. Hopefully we can fix it.

I was on my way out but some friends pulled me back. I know…it totally sucks. Not sure why a whole thread needs to go when the OP does. Didn’t realize I started so many threads but I guess the last few years it’s just been me and you starting these things here. Maybe an admin can see if they’re archived somewhere?

NHC dropping a lemon on that disturbance off the Texas coast now. 20% odds of development.

Good spot. Pretty easy to head west, east, or south into Florida from there to chase.

12z Euro could be spazing out but it takes that little MCS off the Texas coast and develops it into a short-lived low over the next 24-48 hours. These old features are a way to get tropical genesis, but the SSTs off the Texas coast are marginal. Wonder if the ensembles follow. Last year the Euro really struggled with TC genesis.

NOAA outlook has arrived and no surprise it’s calling for another active season. MDR (Main Development Region) remains behind last year’s historic pace in temp anomalies but just like the past few seasons, we’re seeing big warmth in the homebrew regions. Given that a neutral ENSO reduces shear, that’s a meaningful signal for a favorable western Atlantic provided the steering pattern is ridge dominant. SST Depth 26° C TCHP Current Anomalies (note that the SST distribution in the subtropics north of the MDR now tends to translate to above normal MDR temps during the peak of the season)

Yeah, nothing of interest for the US but it’ll likely continue the streak of preseason development.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms has developed several hundred miles east of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within this broad cloud system a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda by tomorrow and produce gale-force winds. The low is then forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters on Friday, and will likely become a short-lived subtropical cyclone late Friday and into the weekend near and to the northeast of Bermuda. The system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing system, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

40% now with regard to 5 day odds.

That's exactly what happened. I was leaving the board and was preparing to delete my account but asked an admin to try to save the threads. I guess that didn't work out... I'm not sure if they're archived somewhere or not. I guess I started a lot of prolific tropical threads. Sorry guys.

We're baaaaacckkk Another active season is expected, though there is enough uncertainty with ENSO that a hyperactive season seems unlikely at this point. We have our first orange of the season. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda by tomorrow afternoon and produce gale-force winds. The low is then forecast to move west-southwestward over warmer waters on Friday and could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone over the weekend to the northeast of Bermuda. The system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by Monday. For more information on this system, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Blake

Tropical?

I’m back home now.

I just saw on Twitter! Beautiful storms!

Nice view from here in East Hartford.

From yesterday in CO And Kansas No tornadoes, but fun times.

Posting here too. Excellent time on the Plains.

Chase Report—5/14/21 Even before heading to the Midwest, it looked like Friday had a pattern that would produce, with the greatest (but still modest) level of instability, moisture, and lift mechanism via a shortwave diving through the region. The SPC issued a slight risk with hatched wind & hail probabilities and my target location was Burlington, CO. It was another great call as by later in the afternoon our first supercell began to develop. I approached from the east near Seibert, CO. Unlike yesterday, this one had a more classic lower precipitation presentation and had multiple wall clouds on it. This area had a manageable road network and I was able to stay on it as it traveled S-SSE. The last attempt for the supercell to form a tornado was its best, with a horseshoe forming before a gradual collapse of the storm. Once the storm collapsed I headed back east into Kansas, where the best instability was. Boy did that pay off handsomely. There were three other supercells that blossomed in my path. Two were fairly transient in producing wall clouds and I was perfectly positioned at the edge of each hook echo. Then we had the big dog. I missed the worst of it to the south but the final supercell near WaKeeney, CO was big time with a hail core and excellent rotation per radar. It was getting dark but the radar and ground truth even away from the worst of the storm was big time. There was accumulated hail on the highway where the worst of the hail core passed. That one produced prolific lightning for a long time. There’s still a ton of other images to process but overall I made the very best of a bad severe wx pattern. No tornadoes, but a lot of great storms and each chase day had something. My forecasting of target locations was average on Tuesday in Texas but excellent on Thursday and Friday in Kansas and Colorado. God willing, I’ll be back out on the Plains next season. Heading back home today and soon I’ll be preparing for my real chase season…

Epic day. No tornadoes but I saw four supercells, three wall clouds, four instances of small hail, and incredible lighting. Made the absolute most out of a bad severe pattern. I’m so happy.

THREE different storms with wall clouds. Driving through hail while another cell with a hook is to the NW. Absolutely nuts.