WxWatcher007

I owe you. Will pay by the end of the week.

Can't really tell either. That's not a bad hook on radar for CT.

Was just about to post.

Right. Models aren't going to be able to pick out exact locations for something like this. It'll be interesting to see how close we get to maximizing potential. BOX just took their forecast up to 4-6" across much of central and eastern CT. The images out of parts of RI are pretty crazy right now.

That's very helpful, thanks. Looking at the HREF, it's quite aggressive across CT. Even the mean is impressive. It looks like the max is just south of HFD.

Was just thinking the same thing. Maybe an upper level low in the Gulf so not quite tropical (or enough time to become tropical)? Even the trough that kicks Earl OTS looks like it could become subtropical. The basin isn't dead that's for sure.

Chillin and grillin?

I'd be pretty surprised if there wasn't a good smoking in CT with this one. Still worry a little about SW CT, but I think they're good there too for a nice event.

Good to have you back. What an event that was.

We seal gaps and prepare for the flood. Bring it.

They never learn.

Folks up in far NE CT are getting smoked right now. FFW up for that area.

.21” so far

Heh, looks a little like the GFS. How much of this is that weak coastal low that pops?

Thanks. It looks like you can see it getting pulled back under the deeper convection on radar which is pretty cool. I wonder if it’s going to be able to sustain with shear nearby.

Looks like recon is having communication issues.

I think it’s more like a dimmer. We’re slowly turning it up. Conditions have been terrible in the tropical Atlantic, you can’t sugarcoat that. It has gotten somewhat better, however. Our first two September storms are likely to end up hurricanes. That’s not something that was possible at any point in August (especially early/mid month). I think @Floydbuster is right to an extent. Some are a little harsh in essentially trying to cancel the season. There’s still plenty of activity that happens on the other side of September 10, and much of it tends to be high end activity. Plenty of time for activity and numbers to come up. Especially in the western part of the basin.

We have radar out of PR and recon is in the air.

The structure of this system is leaps and bounds better than it was 24-48 hours ago. Recon finding higher FL winds and a continued center pressure drop on that latest pass. Euro and GFS gets this to a hurricane in a few days after it makes the right turn.

Recon finding Earl a bit more organized this afternoon, with an extrapolated pressure of 999.2mb. Looks like a tighter center as well that has moved under the convective burst. Not bad for a first pass.

Looks like Danielle is off and running again.

Euro was awful early but keep in mind that climo shifts the favored development areas out of the MDR later in the peak period—late September into October. Could we continue to misfire through the rest of the season? Absolutely. But I think it’s a little early to pull the plug on the entire basin. Not saying you are. I have pulled the plug on the tropical Atlantic part of the MDR. I don’t care what it does at this point. My forecast called for activity in early September followed by a lull and more activity late September into October. More backloaded by necessity LOL.

Was a little surprised by the spread in the EPS overnight.

Another one! Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (2)Hurricanes: 6 (1)Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)