WxWatcher007

Glad everyone is ok. Looks like that ENH worked out.

The cell in far northern CT was legit. I was on it for a bit. Finally a chase in but I’m clearly rusty. I screwed up and missed getting truly ahead of the goods.

That cell SW of Pittsfield looks nice.

AEMATT to the delight of all homeowners west. It’s my fault. I’m dense. A hurricane force low before it became Wanda in the open Atlantic lol. I recorded just above 980mb in Orleans. Definitely cat 1 gusts early that morning.

Sarcasm frequently flies over my head

It’s the opposite. It goes from south of Long Island to the VT border in 4 hours. It was moving extraordinarily fast. That’s part of the reason why it maintained its intensity so far north.

Yeah. Way too disorganized. Euro was most bullish and support basically evaporated overnight. It has a lot of work to do to have a meaningful shot at development.

Happy birthday!

Same here—I’m up all night tracking interesting events when they’re happening and it’s awesome to experience the power of wx. I just don’t get too hung up over the busts anymore. Tropical is my obsession, and I’m sure if a legit cane were barreling down on the region the thread for it would be on par with a blizzard. That is, until the grid collapses It’d be severe in New England for sure, but the meteorology of it—the evolution of the steering pattern, the internal structure of the TC upon landfall and extra tropical transition, and the real-time data from across the region—would be fascinating.

Yeah, those have been good. I was just reading through last October’s thread. That was higher end stuff. I feel like I can generally make whatever wx work. I just want interesting or active. I have been leaning toward wanting more big dogs recently though. I know everyone up here loves winter and I still do too, but tracking it is tedious. The threads are mini insane asylums.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Gradual development of this system is possible if it can remain offshore while it meanders near the northern Gulf coast through the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rains will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Products from the Weather Prediction Center can be found at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and local National Weather Service products can be found at weather.gov Forecaster Cangialosi

Yes Yes and YES

65kt intensification in 24 hours.

Not worth much right now but the Euro is consistent in bringing whatever happens in the Gulf northeast. Could be a good rainmaker for some further up the coast?

Darby is a beaut. RI ongoing this morning.

Burlington is beautiful. Spent time up there last week for the first time. Better there than Texas. It could get ugly there this week with a big heat wave.

12z Euro is quite bullish. It meanders a low off the northern Gulf, strengthens it to around 992mb and tracks it NE through the southeast. That would be interesting.

Don’t ever change.

Looks like it's time to watch the northern Gulf with a casual eye, as the NHC now gives a 20% 5 day chance for development along a front. The signal has been weak but consistent on the GFS/Euro, and the ensembles overnight, especially the EPS, showed a modest signal for some type of development. Would fit climo. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low pressure is expected to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico from a decaying frontal boundary currently located over the southeastern United States. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts just offshore of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the middle to later part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rains will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coastline from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation change through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Papin

While the Atlantic basin is quiet and should remain so as we wait for the large scale pattern to change in 2-3 weeks, it's time to watch our tried and true method for homebrew : stalled fronts. The guidance has had a weak but consistent signal that a stalled front in the Gulf will be the focal point for an area of low pressure to develop along the northern Gulf coast. Overnight, both the operational GFS/Euro and their ensembles presented a growing signal for some disturbed weather with development potential. I'm a bit lukewarm on it right now, given proximity to land and potential for shear/dry air, but it's a little early to really get into details. It's something to watch with a casual eye. Why? The northern Gulf has some of the highest SST anomalies in the entire Atlantic, and the warmest SSTs, as is often the case. It's still impressive to see though, and heightens the chance that good convection that can organize gets going in that region. One other thing to note--not necessarily for this potential system but rather the future--there is a sizable warm eddy that could become trouble down the road for a CV that gets to the Gulf. Finally, I'll just draw your attention to TCHP across the basin. The Caribbean is always loaded but off the SE coast and in the Gulf--prime homebrew regions, the building warmth is on par with our recent well above average seasons. While the focal point along the front this time will be the Gulf, given the warmth and climo off the SE coast we shouldn't be surprised if we see potential jump to the SE coast in the next 10-15 days as we see fronts continue to make it south given the current upper level pattern. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low pressure is expected to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico from a decaying frontal boundary currently located over the southeastern United States. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts just offshore of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the middle to later part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rains will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coastline from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation change through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Papin

The most dangerous chase of my life happened here in CT. I was trailing a line of severe thunderstorms and crossed an area that had flash flooding ongoing. That was as white knuckle a drive as I’ve ever done. Fun fact, I carry a life jacket on most of my chases just in case…