WxWatcher007

What places have blown past their return time in the hurricane landfall department? Just thinking out loud… Aside from NE I can only think of: GA coast (probably more overdue) FL east coast Houston Tampa

It’s hard to even comprehend how crazy a repeat of ‘38 up here would be. There’s just something about tropical that’s always fascinated me. September is the best wx month for me and it’s not even close.

Nothing to write home about at all with that recon mission, which is helpful in itself.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become better organized during the last 24 h, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate winds near 30 kt. However, both the aircraft and scatterometer data show that the disturbance does not yet have a well-defined circulation center. Since the system is likely to develop further and make landfall as a tropical storm in less than 36 h, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four with Tropical Storm Warnings being issued for portions of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south Texas. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/12. The disturbance is on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and a general northwest motion should continue until the system moves inland over northeastern Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. The disturbance is in an environment of light westerly vertical shear, and this should continue until landfall. This should allow continued development until the system reaches the coast, and the official intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 40 kt near landfall. It should be noted, though, that the global models do not develop the system significantly before landfall, and if they are correct any development could be slower than currently forecast. The system will weaken after landfall, and by 60 h it is forecast to be absorbed into a larger low pressure area forming over western and northern Texas. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. 2. Rains from the system may begin to affect the eastern coast of Mexico from northern Veracruz into southern Tamaulipas tonight into early Saturday. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rain from this system may move into far south Texas during the day on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 20.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/0600Z 22.0N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 20/1800Z 23.8N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 25.6N 98.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1800Z 27.1N 99.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

NHC will initiate advisories on PTC 4 starting at 5pm EST.

Looks like a lot more honestly. This is why recon is so valuable.

Hurricane Bob anniversary is today.

Still no evidence of a closed LLC so far from what I can see, but it's still fairly early. Probably going to be good enough for at least a PTC designation though.

Getting a lot of flagged reports now. Too much rust from sitting idle during our dead period

There are already some flagged and unflagged SFMR readings over 34kts. However, the sampling just began and we don't know the state of a potential LLC.

Recon has descended. Will be in the Invest soon and we'll get a much better sense of the structure.

It’d be wild for all the guidance to miss TC genesis for two waves, at such a short range, simultaneously! I’m still skeptical since it’s running head first into the driest and most stable part of the MDR, but we’ll see.

Euro follows the GFS this run lol.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form later today, tonight, or on Saturday while the system moves northwestward across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the system. Interests along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Beven

From your lips to God’s ears.

It has been awful. I’m with you by the way that there’s a memorable TC somewhere in the US this year, even if the season as a whole underperforms.

Recon is in the air and en route to Invest 99L.

That ridge building over the top with a trough coming in behind would make folks sweat no doubt about it.

Just playing around with the run…it looks like the trough to the north isn’t enough to kick it OTS. Ridge rebuilding in the Midwest. No ridge over the top or GL cutoff though so no direct line toward the US.

This is the lead wave? I lost track. It’s so odd that it plows it right into the heart of the dry air lol. I will say, it’s a good sign for TC genesis generally to see the MDR with convective activity.

What is the GFS trying to do out in the MDR???

Still need to see what recon finds, but I said it yesterday—the convective cycles were really nice with this one over a few days and this morning would be important for TC chances. It checked the box. Now, it’ll need to tighten up and continue its convection through the downward convective diurnal phase. Still a little early but it looks like the shear has relaxed a little on visible. It wasn’t really impacting the apparent MLC though.

What a difference a year makes.

The shear is certainly nearby at first light, but I don’t think it’s having a significant impact yet looking at visible imagery. Not sure if recon still plans to fly this morning.

I’ll take that as a don’t get your hopes up lol. Thanks.