WxWatcher007

Adding to @Weather Will's post, I want to share some of the latest ensemble guidance. While the operational guidance is good for eye candy and can be modestly helpful in identifying the major steering players like ridges and significant troughs, the ensembles are still where it's at to get a sense of track potential and sensitivity. 06z Operational Spaghetti Plot 06z GEFS 00z EPS I like this one in particular. This is Tomer Burg's super ensemble of the major operational ensembles. This is dated (yesterday) but does an excellent job of showing the spread in ensembles. Super Ensemble 12z 9/14 I'd guess if we had an image of the latest ensembles overnight, the spread would remain but the ellipse would probably lean more toward the west with the EPS showing a bifurcated range, moreso than the GEFS. The spread would still be quite large.

06z GEFS guidance would likely carry this out to sea after impacting the Greater Antilles, but it's still early to make a lot of judgment calls. I think I'd favor a more close call over a landfall or wide right solution right now but again, early.

Agree and you can see both the dry air and shear having an impact on morning visible (time sensitive) It'll be interesting to see what recon finds and how the sampling of the environment changes the current intensity and track forecasts.

I think recon will be helpful. While OTS after the Greater Antilles is probably favored at this point, there’s a lot that can change depending on how a complicated pattern unfolds in the Pacific.

Speaking of overperformers, I think the most memorable thing about 2005 other than Katrina was seemingly going to bed with lower end storms in the basin and waking up to find them majors. Wilma went from 110mph at 11pm to 175 at 11am one night lol.

Oh it’s far from perfect and still probably has a ceiling pre Antilles as a result, but for something that wasn’t even supposed to be this organized 48 hours ago, this isn’t bad. Especially in this season of suck.

An overperformer in the basin! Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 945 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened to a tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 50 mph (85 km/h). This will be incoporated in the next advisory that will be released before 11 pm AST (0300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 945 PM AST...0150 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 52.0W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Well damn. Gonna need a title change @GaWx Finally an overperformer Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 945 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened to a tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 50 mph (85 km/h). This will be incoporated in the next advisory that will be released before 11 pm AST (0300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 945 PM AST...0150 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 52.0W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

We have Fiona.

Latest ASCAT and microwave passes:

Yeah still a fairly long way to go.

Here’s a great HM inspired thread on the complexities of figuring out the steering pattern. Recon will probably help this a bit, but there’s a lot to sort out with the Pacific having a significant impact on the Atlantic upper level pattern in the next week.

Contender in the long range for the US. Not necessarily New England lol

Although the operationals still have somewhat limited use, the fact that they all basically agree that this runs into the Greater Antilles and still finds a way to intensify in the southwest Atlantic is interesting. Ensembles more or less endorse that idea too. I do think we're past the point where this one fizzles even with land interaction, unless it runs over both Haiti/DR and the length of Cuba. This looks like a TS to me right now. At the moment I think it's going to be just organized enough to survive a day of land interaction but not so organized as to run entirely north of the islands. Not quite an analog, but I can see an Isaias type situation where it's middling along until it gets clear of the islands and begins to turn northward. Tomorrow's recon data for the system itself and the environment ahead will be very helpful. Shear is present and probably caps this before the Antilles, but dry air hasn't slowed this one down much. That alone has me starting to believe this one could be a contender in the long range.

This looks like a TS to me right now. Very nice convection near the LLC.

Far too soon to say. We're just going to be watching this through the weekend to see how the overall steering pattern shakes out.

I’m not so sure land interaction kills this one unless it’s meandering over the mountains, which looks unlikely at this point.

Hard pass. 70 and sunny is better on 9/30.

Often it is but the caveat here is that guidance often has an easier time generally picking out the larger scale steering patterns. We saw that with Earl to an extent. The devil is in the details.

Sorry—for comparison’s sake.

…But the ridge orientation is nowhere close to the GFS.

Unlike the GFS, there’s not as much of a weakness on the 12z Euro, which puts this much closer to the Bahamas in a week.

It introduces a weakness off the coast that allows for an escape route. Could be real but if it’s not the ridge is a big player. Too early to know at this point.