WxWatcher007

Can’t recommend enough taking a cross country trip. The Tetons were phenomenal. Yes, that’s a snow squall obscuring mountains to the right.

It’s certainly unusually active in the basin right now. Aside from 96L, 95L is looking pretty decent today as the guidance tries to develop it (again) and the wave behind 95L is looking robust on guidance, at least right now. With the general steering environment, something that’s able to make it to the SW Atlantic or western Caribbean could make things interesting near or just after the holiday. Climo starts to open up in July for CV or MDR development, but it’s still early and we’re seeing robust waves coming through.

Thanks. Even as ENSO is looking more neutral, we're seeing a pretty active season so far with some signals that suggest the peak of the season is active.

The BOX discussion specifically said the upper level ridge was pushing 99th percentile of climo (edit: and the guidance has upper 90s possible for urban areas), so this doesn't strike me as run of the mill heat. Something can be hazardous without being historic and we know for heat a lot of it depends on the context you're living in. Most will be fine, some will not if they don't take it seriously or don't have access to AC/cooling.

This wasn't totally shocking. The guidance, while not explicitly forecasting TC genesis, had been trending stronger with the disturbance. Given the SST profile, and window for lower shear, we're seeing what could be some modest development. Let's see what the convective trends are over the next 12 hours as it approaches a better SST environment.

We've got a hot one! Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate that a small low pressure system has formed about 500 miles east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface pressures have begun to fall across the area, and showers and thunderstorms have recently become better organized. Some additional development of this system will be possible later today, and especially on Monday when the system will move across the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form before the system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The low is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern United States by late Monday. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate that a small low pressure system has formed about 500 miles east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface pressures have begun to fall across the area, and showers and thunderstorms have recently become better organized. Some additional development of this system will be possible later today, and especially on Monday when the system will move across the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form before the system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The low is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern United States by late Monday. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

So let's talk 96L It's the latest in a line of homebrew region (in this case western Atlantic/off SE Coast) disturbances that is attempting to develop. It didn't come out of nowhere. As I usually say, if you are only following surface depictions on the models for TC genesis, you are missing a lot. There were signals that we'd see a robust disturbance (but short of an actual TC) for days. The trend has been stronger in the most recent runs. I like looking at 850mb vorticity. As you'll see below, the last 8 runs have been more robust with the disturbance's vorticity, which is key to TC genesis. But of course, there's more to it than that (though having some spin is essential). Let's take a look at SSTs. As @George BM noted, they've been warming quite nicely, even as temps near the coastline are a bit below normal currently. Having a sufficiently warm SST profile, a pocket of lower wind shear, and marginal moisture aloft has allowed for some gradual organization of 96L. In fact, it actually looks pretty good at the moment, with a low level circulation developing and convection firing near it. Consistent convection near the center would substantially raise the odds of some weak development, and that looks like a decent bet as the system passes near the Gulf Stream tonight/tomorrow. That said, there are some key environmental factors that strike against too much development. First is the dry air that is near the coast. While adequate, a more moist environment would be good for convection to fire. The other thing is shear. This disturbance is impacted by a nearby upper level low, and while it's in a pocket of lower shear now, there could be increasing shear near the coast. That's something to watch. The other thing is time. While there are conditions close to the coast that make TC genesis generally more favorable, the flip side is that anything that develops has a small window to intensify. That's good for the people of the coast of course. Overall, the signals, while weak, were there with this one. I think given what we're seeing on satellite right now, we have a fragile invest that is attempting tropical cyclone genesis.

The area of disturbed wx off the SE coast has been designated Invest 96L

Just designated as 96L. Homebrew

Probably not a lot of time to pop, but homebrew has been hot the last two years

Latest GFS throwing out a 99 at Hartford on Wednesday. This heat wave could be an over performer. Let’s crack 100

Happy birthday!

Not sure if they have AC, but I hope your parents get through it ok @fourseasons. Just keep checking in on them.

Extraordinary

Indeed. Insane heatwave out there.

It’s actually a bit sad to see. This’ll be damaging to the environment at elevation.

All time record for Portland.

Portland up to 106/61 Wow

Here’s the NWS tweet. Some model guidance has the 500mb temp approaching just -2C.

It’s insane. I saw a tweet saying the local NWS is warning about runoff because the freezing level will basically reach the top of mountains. Incredible to see how they can torch which makes me wonder what’s the hottest we could do here if the mid/upper level pattern lined up for epic heat. Maybe 107-108 at say BDL?

I'm wild and I know it.

It’s unreal to me that those places can torch like that. I’d personally love to experience heat like that someday, but that’s dangerous stuff.

My college football viewing has declined in recent years but NFL Football is still the best show on TV IMO, no disrespect to others’ preferences lol.