WxWatcher007

Just shy of moderate now forecasted for Hartford, which would be the highest crest since 2011 from what I can see.

Well that overshot the forecast a bit

.50” on the day. CT River at Hartford however is forecasted to have its highest crest since 2020 this week (still minor flood stage)

Someone is going to get smoked when that area south of LI makes landfall. Nice burst of lightning and a little spin.

That’s legit terrifying. I keep a life jacket in my car just in case on some of these chases.

I did, though iirc it was originally a severe warning that turned into a water event. That was crazy. I also chased Florence knowing the water risk, but did a really good job researching a relatively dry location for that. The area was inundated.

Posted in the wrong thread

Insane

Yep, Ida. That may have been the first high risk too in NE?

I’ve chased a lot of things…I’d never chase flash flooding. It can get very dangerous extremely fast. Be extremely conservative if you do go.

Anytime you have a high risk, something ugly is coming.

It’s going to be hard going from severe warnings for baseball size hail, 70 mph gusts, and possible tornadoes back to warnings for gusty showers and pea size hail.

Congrats PF in winter AND summer

Sucker holed just in time for my return lol Proposed to my now wife at Acadia during peak fall color. It’s a fantastic park and Bar Harbor is a great community.

A few more from the Lamar supercell yesterday

Final chase report. What a trip. Just wish yesterday popped a little earlier.

Chaser Report: 7/6/23 It was a classic hurry up and wait day, as a complex forecast evolved over eastern Colorado. I decided to hold in Denver, as the CAMs remained confident in the cap breaking and we had clearing that allowed for substantial destabilization. It was late afternoon when we had convective initiation, with two transient supercells just east of Denver. Both dropped funnels, and there were reports of a tornado and landspout. Once we reached Limon, things quickly picked up. New storms popped to my north and south It became apparent very quickly that the southern storms, which were explosively developing before my eyes in an environment of 3,000 SBCAPE, 2,500 MLCAPE and 50-70kts effective shear were the ones to track. The chase…was on… What were distinct cells ended up congealing into a monster long track supercell with a hail core at at least one initial tornado report. The sun was setting so it was hard to see how close it was to producing a tornado but I did see a wall cloud behind the frequent lightning. Rather than try to cut behind the storm and beat the other supercells that were developing to get to Lamar, I called it after these photos. It was an excellent call, as the supercell became tornado warned, dropped more baseball hail, and caused flash flooding along what would have been my route. The only downside is that yesterday became a nocturnal threat as the cap broke late. I pushed it to the limit and it paid off. It was an epic chase overall. This is my third time out here and each time I’m getting better at forecasting and tracking.

It’s complex and fascinating just how different a world it is out here. Shortly after this post, two storms popped to my north and south, each dropping funnels and at least 1 tornado and/or 1 potential landspout. Initiation happened because of the “Denver Cyclone”. Then, CI happened just as I arrived in Limon due to an impulse east of Pueblo, and the real chase was on. It went from a series of thunderstorms to a congealed cluster, and finally, into a monster long track supercell. Said it before and I’ll say it again—you’d love it out here. I’m still learning how to do it right but I’m getting better each time.

It’s not as picturesque, but it was something to behold from convective initiation to when it became a monster. I have some other pics on different cameras and hopefully one of them has a funnel.

What an evening. Ended up on the eventual Lamar cell. Had to stop due to darkness and that was a great call because Lamar really got hit hard.

Just just between the two cells that each produced funnels.

For the purposes of today at least (I’m in the Denver area) if there’s a way to determine the threshold llvl lapse rate to overcome a cap for the explosive convective initiation.