WxWatcher007

Sometimes you hit a grand slam and sometimes it's a pop fly

Yeah, it's pretty crazy how quickly it came apart in terms of radar appearance. Totally fitting for Elsa though. It has struggled to maintain any organizational progress its entire life cycle. Edit: pressure went up 5mb from the first recon center fix.

This might be a wobble too, but recon has a NNE motion between center fixes.

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 1:14ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 14Observation Number: 12 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 1Z on the 7th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 27.0N 83.3W Location: 84 statute miles (136 km) to the SW (217°) from Tampa, FL, USA. Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1003mb (29.62 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 23.8°C (75°F) 115° (from the ESE) 43 knots (49 mph) 1000mb 25m (82 ft) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 23.7°C (75°F) 120° (from the ESE) 42 knots (48 mph) 925mb 710m (2,329 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 20.4°C (69°F) 135° (from the SE) 38 knots (44 mph) 850mb 1,451m (4,760 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) About 15°C (59°F) 120° (from the ESE) 26 knots (30 mph) 700mb 3,109m (10,200 ft) Other data not available. Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 0:53Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 27.03N 83.29W - Time: 0:53:41Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 27.06N 83.32W - Time: 0:58:39Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE) - Wind Speed: 45 knots (52 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 135° (from the SE) - Wind Speed: 27 knots (31 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 1002mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE) - Wind Speed: 45 knots (52 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404

That said, it doesn't matter a ton with regard to conditions along much of the west coast of FL. This half eyewall is going to scrape a good part of the metro Tampa area unless there's a bigger move to the west in the next few hours. The southwesterly flow on the backside of the hurricane is still going to cause surge issues as well.

Probably a wobble. These things don't really go in a straight line. I've learned that lesson firsthand lol.

Thank you everyone for the birthday wishes! It may not be a 5, but I do have a cane coming my way.

Flight level winds by recon remain quite high to the NE of the center, with a few readings over 70kts, but I don't quite see it translate to SFMR. That could be due to proximity to land though.

Happy birthday @Prospero! Wish you many more! I arrived in Clearwater a few hours ago. Best of luck tonight to everyone in the Tampa area.

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live for the first time in the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season from Clearwater, FL, where we have a Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning. Conditions have been relatively dry, but there have been some fairly strong breezes which have been increasing as Elsa approaches. A number of people have been out and about during the calm, but every person I've met so far is aware of the coming storm. Expecting a busy overnight period.

Elsa has regained hurricane status. 75mph/996mb.

Congrats to everyone that cashed in lol

It was always on the table, just a low shot deal.

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Radar data from Cuba and Key West, Florida, along with surface observations, indicate that the center of Elsa is back over water, having emerged off the northern coast of of Cuba around 0200 UTC. Doppler velocity data from the NOAA WSR-88D at Key West indicate values of around 55 t at 10,000 ft, which supports equivalent surface winds of 49 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft flying just offshore the north coast of Cuba over deep water measured reliable SFMR surface winds of at least 50 kt. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 50 kt. The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Just like over the past three days, no significant changes have been made to the previous track forecast or synoptic reasoning. Elsa is now moving north-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge whose axis extends westward across the Atlantic to central Florida. The cyclone should gradually move around the ridge over the next 36 hours, turning northward on Tuesday and then north-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. By late Wednesday, Elsa should accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough and frontal system, moving across the eastern United States to near Atlantic Canada. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, but was nudged slightly eastward due to the more eastward initial position, and lies a tad east of of the various tightly clustered track consensus models. Some additional strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours, with some of the SHIPS and global models showing Elsa possibly reaching 60 kt just before landfall along the northwestern Florida peninsula. This would typically require a Hurricane Watch for a small portion of northwest Florida. However, given that Elsa has been hugging a very tight mid-level moisture gradient -- a condition that is expected to continue until landfall occurs in about 36 hours -- the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and holds the peak intensity at 55 kt due to expected intermittent dry-air intrusions. Subsequent NHC forecasts can assess the new reconnaissance and model data that will be coming in later tonight, and determine if an increase in the intensity forecast and the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning is required. By 96 hours, the global models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the new intensity forecast continues to shows extratropical transition at that time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 23.5N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 24.9N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 26.9N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 29.2N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 31.6N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 08/1200Z 34.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/0000Z 36.9N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0000Z 43.3N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z 50.5N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

Yep, and the question will be will the two align enough overnight to allow for some modest intensification. I think the answer is no given the projected shear, but sometimes it’s helpful to shed a weak LLC over land to allow for some reformation near a more robust MLC.

Heck of a way to run a drought

EPS looks west of the op.

Trend right up the Bay?

It was definitely slower this run. Maybe there is a trend here.

No

Euro gone wild for some coastal sections lol.

I don't think I buy it, but the Euro tries to go to town in the eastern Gulf as Elsa makes final approach to Florida. Very close to a hurricane by the time it makes landfall.

Edit: it's northwest of the 00z run but still a miss for most.

Looks like the Ukmet as well.

Probably good for some decent wind at the coast too.