WxWatcher007

Despite very low odds currently, the Gulf low has been designated Invest 98L.

Saw a man on a lawnmower the other day and all he was doing was kicking up a pile of dust.

Oof. Might go 0/3. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low pressure is developing over the north-central Gulf of Mexico just offshore of southeastern Louisiana. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple of days as it drifts west-southwestward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. For more information on the system, see products issued by the National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Forecaster Roberts

Nice little nighttime tower up here for a storm that just missed.

This. I’m obviously a tropical weenie. I’ve spent my entire life fascinated with the complexity and power of tropical cyclones. I chase now, which often brings me to places where people will be profoundly impacted, even in non-major events. I try to keep my opinions focused on the facts and interpret things objectively. I know not everyone can or wants to do that, but it’s a better learning experience that way IMO.

Yep, that haze over the coastline is SAL. As bad as it is though, it was much worse just a few weeks ago. July 31 Today It just…takes time.

I think I went something like 21/10/5. It’ll be hard to get 18 more NS, but the other two are doable. Given the western Atlantic. Need October to make up for a dead first 1/3 - 2/3 of August though.

I don’t remember this, but it looks beautiful.

We’re better off than we were two weeks ago, but it’s still objectively ugly, especially in the eastern and central Atlantic as a result of stability and mid level dry air more than anything. It’s a false start. We need to be patient and see if this advertised pattern change is realized. If it’s not, we’re probably cooked for anything well above normal. I think hyperactive is off the table.

Basin still sucks right now.

It’s become a broken record at this point, but the Atlantic is just too hostile right now.

Today was very impressive here. High of 98.5 and the humidity was about as high end as you can get around here.

I wouldn’t blame ‘em. I’ve been outside all morning and I usually like testing my physical limits of heat and cold—it’s rough for me.

This is real heat out here. Contractor had to stop work the house was so hot. VP2 says it feels like 110 outside lol

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more limited associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. While some gradual development of this system is possible over the next couple of days, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Papin

Looking pretty disorganized this morning.

Amazing how everything that spins in the PAC is blowing up. Seven hurricanes out there so far lol.

Just a couple sprinkles where I was. I guess I’ll have to take what I can get lol.

Stein did me dirty today. That’s a nice line that developed just a few miles south of me.

Much different depiction at 12z but I’ll tell ya, I think this is a more likely long tracker to watch if it remains weak early and fails to gain latitude while that trough lifts out next week. Too strong too soon and Early, but just a thought that could be wrong lol.

A generally conducive environment, as the NHC said, but not a slam dunk right now if this muddles its way to the central Atlantic.

It woke me up, but I know that's one for the weenie folder and not the analysis folder.

I'll see myself out now.