WxWatcher007

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable to support some gradual development over the next few days, and this system could become a tropical depression while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system, as it could bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of that area. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have diminished this morning. Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for development, this system could still become a tropical depression later this week while it moves toward the west-southwest or west at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable to support some gradual development over the next few days, and this system could become a tropical depression while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system, as it could bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of that area. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have diminished this morning. Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for development, this system could still become a tropical depression later this week while it moves toward the west-southwest or west at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Brown

You went a little wild there but you're a new poster. Enthusiasm is good. Just keep in mind that those model runs will jump all over the place as it tries to sort out a complex environment. Yeah, I think some short term development is looking increasingly likely, but I think we probably will agree it's going to find a hard time hanging on in the western Atlantic if it runs straight into Haiti/DR or Cuba and then encounters the PV streamer that's progged on some of the guidance near Florida. Of course, that can be hit or miss, so certainly something worth watching over the next few days.

That lead wave/western edge of the monsoon trough has been designated Invest 94L. Of all the disturbances we've seen the last few days, I've thought this one had the best chance of development if it could avoid land interaction. It is disorganized and ugly looking right now, but looks better than it did 24 hours ago (same could be said for 93L) as it is more convectively active. Has a lot of work to do and it's far from certain it develops.

what happened in here last night?

Beautiful day here in upstate NY. Not quite PF level scenery lol but this’ll do.

Central Atlantic wave is now designated Invest 93L. NHC jumped the gun with the last two invests so we’ll see if the third time’s the charm.

Some modest support for waves 1 & 2 on the GEFS. Virtually nothing for 92L.

Just an observation—not saying it’ll happen—but that GFS run was close to an impact somewhere. TC comes in as the high builds over the top and blocks a quick recurve. Get that to happen sooner and it’s much closer to a coastal scraper in the SE at least. Edit: that, or removing/weakening the trough that creates the weakness in the ridge.

Yeah—I still think it’s a little wild but some development closer to the Antilles is a legit possibility. Note that the lead part of the monsoon trough tries developing too albeit much weaker due in large part to land interaction.

Something could pop eventually out of that monsoon trough, but that’s a classic GFS gone wild run IMO. MDR still isn’t quite ready for Primetime

All depends on the environment whenever a system got there. Just look at Marco and Laura last year. Both ran into the Gulf and had entirely different outcomes just a few days apart due to the conditions they met.

As I was saying yesterday, I think that lead wave (current NHC lemon) is something to watch as it reaches the Antilles. If it’s able to track north of the larger islands it may run into a more favorable environment, at least with regard to OHC and moisture. Shear TBD. It’s no surprise the guidance is struggling with projecting what, if anything, comes out if this monsoon trough. We’re kind of at the point in the season where MDR environmental conditions are favorable enough for a signal but still hostile enough to preclude a robust one with what we’ve got going on currently. Sure, something could develop, but we’re probably jumping the gun by a week or two in having a truly conducive pattern for TC genesis. Of course, that’s why climo is climo.

Dog days for sure. Glad football is starting to ramp back up.

Yeah I’m definitely starting to wake up now. Neither wave is guaranteed to develop but if the lead wave in the central Atlantic can avoid land it could have a window for some development in the western Atlantic. I know 92L is the focus right now but I wouldn’t take my eye off either as something to casually watch.

CSU updated outlook was released and no surprise an above average peak us expected despite CSU dropping overall numbers a touch. Both SSTs and shear so far this year track in between our above average and hyperactive years.

Is 92L the ONE?

No surprise but that wave coming off Africa is now designated Invest 92L.

Yeah, sorry guys. I’m retired.

Yeah watch the western MDR in particular. We should get a couple of waves that’ll have a chance with the more favorable MJO phase.

You came all this way and didn’t visit me? RUDE. I know I tried burying you alive a few years back, but I thought we were past that.

Great stuff. I’m still riding above normal but short of hyperactive. I don’t really take much of a position right now on the predominant steering pattern in September/October but the pattern certainly looks ripe for August. We’ll see if that second wave is able to develop.