WxWatcher007

I think the dice have been cast at this point, and it’s not looking good for Florida. It’s very possible that this latest attempt at an inner core falls short, but even if it does the system is undoubtedly more organized. That will make it more resilient to any shear/dry air until upper level diffluence gets involved…which should get it to a new level. This is a short range forecast at this point. Probably inside 60 hours to landfall. If I had to guess right now, we end up somewhere between 105-115kts, but this is a volatile one. I’d also watch for a system with lower central pressure but broader wind field. That’d actually be the worst case for FL.

Outperforming already high expectations..

Recon is now in the air and headed toward Idalia.

Just a really cool loop to watch

Something about this description to someone called SnowLover just cracks me up.

That buoy is displaying a legit pressure fall. Looking at that, IR, and most importantly radar, it looks like Idalia is trying to take this latest mesovortex and turn it into the beginnings of an inner core. The longer the convective towers can fire absent disruptive shear and dry air intrusion, the more likely it’ll be able to go from mesovortex in a broader circulation to nascent inner core. Seeing convection try to rotate upshear on radar is a meaningful piece of data.

I think there’s still a fairly sizable split on it, but odds seem to be increasing that it’ll be moving pretty quickly.

Looks like a localized heavy rain event across guidance now. Haven't been paying much attention.

This x100. Until we can get persistent convection over the center and convection rotating upshear it'll be hard to build a core. Guidance does have that happen eventually but it may take some time. It'll be interesting to see what recon finds tonight.

It looks fine to me. This is the only active flight.

I’d take this to mean that we did get valuable storm structure data for 12z, but much more will be coming in subsequent model suites with high altitude and low level recon continuing through the day and evening.

High altitude sampling flight underway. We'll see if it has any meaningful impact on the track and intensity guidance.

There were some openly wondering whether we'd get through August with no named storms In all seriousness though, hindsight is 20/20, and September still needs to produce because I do think things ramp down quickly after September 20.

Thanks for cleaning up my sloppy geography It looks a lot faster by my eye.

FWIW, Euro is stronger and maybe a touch east? Definitely stronger as the low heads toward the FL/GA coast. 989mb at Savannah at 78.

Just in time to suppress any tropical lol

Gotta love the ole American I haven’t followed it much but I figured with some of the discussion a few weeks ago that warmth was on the table in early September. It’s been an exceptional period of heat to our south and west, and while I don’t expect 100 in September I do think we get pretty warm relative to normal for at least a bit.

Not boring? That’s a 101 at HFD

I’d probably wait until the 00z suite because the models will have data on not just right now but how Idalia evolved over the course of the day.

It’s no surprise that the vortex is tilted, and that’ll limit the risk of rapid intensification in the near term. That said I’d watch the development of shallow convection near the center. Sometimes that can be a precursor for greater convective activity that can organize the center. I’m guessing we see it in spurts however given the apparent northerly shear that’s currently tilting Idalia.

I know, just a little funny to see. They telegraphed it at 11am by saying it could happen at anytime.

WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (5) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 3 (0) Emily, Franklin (H), Gert, Harold, Idalia

That was fast

@STILL N OF PIKE It’s lurking for sure, and you can kind of see how that may keep the system sputtering a bit in the Gulf tomorrow, but then the signal for intensification through landfall Tuesday/Wednesday remains.