WxWatcher007

It took forever, but there’s enough for recon to do a center fix. This one is on the cusp of becoming a depression.

Based on visible imagery, and the latest set of recon observations, it looks like there is a very weak low level center. That said, this still looks very disorganized and maybe not quite worthy of a designation yet. edit: I’m probably too generous. Let’s call it a low level swirl

It’s still messy, but the 12z Euro tries to organize this into what I’m guessing is a depression this weekend. Not sure if it’ll pull the plug later in the model run though.

Recon en route again to see if there’s any organization.

Well keep in mind that climo shifts tropical genesis to the Gulf and western Caribbean too later in September and especially October. I think we know that reaching normal ACE or above active named storms will be a struggle given the hostile environment basin wide, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the later part of the season is destined to be dead too. Especially if AWB relaxes. It’s just something we’ll have to watch unfold.

On the board! Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (1) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)

On the board! Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (1) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)

I agree. It has tried and failed, numerous times, to organize. It looks like it’s trying again this morning so we’ll see what recon finds later.

51.6 this morning.

Very pleasant night here. Hoping I can get into the 40s tonight.

I think the modeled venting could compensate for lower end SSTs, but we’ll see. I think a low end 3 would be the max for this but it’s just fun to finally watch something pop in this basin.

I’ve given up on the MDR at this point lol. I won’t believe anything there until it’s developed. Everything has fallen apart there. It’s extraordinary.

It has a chance.

EPS isn’t buying the op at 12z

Buckle up!

Look at this microwave imagery! We have a special advisory!

I’m still very skeptical 91L can pull it together. The MDR has been a disaster. I’ve kept saying it’s getting better but our current tire fire isn’t much better than what we had in July. That said, if I can get a couple on the board before September 10 I’ll feel better about my peak season forecast. That’s all that matters now to me.

Hmm…it’ll be interesting to see if the ensembles follow.

Recon is about a thousand feet off the decks trying to see if this one even has a pulse.

Bruh you are a trip and I love it Normally a warm tropical Atlantic and cool subtropics are a great combination for instability and tropical activity, but the North Atlantic became a furnace. This stuff is so much more than warm=good and cold=bad.

Yeah, I guess that’s something to keep in mind. Perhaps it stays so moribund that whatever’s left of it misses the trough completely and needs to wait for another ride…or the death blow.

It wasn’t really a TC yet yesterday. It kinda backslid yesterday afternoon and evening and took off overnight. We earned that futility record.

The opposite of everything else so far this season lol

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022 A recent ASCAT pass revealed areas of tropical-storm-force winds and the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt making the system Tropical Storm Danielle. Visible satellite imagery also shows convective coverage expanding and obscuring the low-level circulation. The initial motion of the storm is eastward at 3 kt. The tropical storm is located in an area of light winds and weak steering under an omega block. This will likely cause the system to slowly drift around the same general area until the anticyclone weakens and a mid-latitude trough steers Danielle poleward around day 4. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory prediction and lies between the model consensus aids. Danielle is over an area of warmer than average ocean waters. Atmospheric conditions are also forecast to be relatively favorable, with light- to moderate-northerly to northwesterly shear for the next three days or so. The NHC forecast calls for additional strengthening and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two days and peak in intensity in about 4 days. When the storm moves northward, Danielle will likely weaken as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 38.1N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 38.2N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 38.2N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 38.0N 44.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 38.0N 44.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 40.0N 43.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi