WxWatcher007

It takes a while for SSTs to really build, and Franklin left a really big wake. Note that the little blob of higher SSTs directly above the wake is erroneous. Right, given the comments I’ve seen so far today people will meh this when it reintensifies, but I think this gets back to a 4 once the shear abates some, which I believe will happen.

This place is so dumb lol That place is dumber

Nah, borderline 3 based on recon. Elliptical eye.

Much better appearance on IR. Outflow reestablished, deep convection over a more symmetrical center, strong rotation around the center with a lightning burst.

Looks like the heading hasn’t changed

Maybe close to steady state? Looks like FL & SFMR support 100kts.

It’s going to eventually turn northward—the trough is definitely going to erode the ridge, but as @STILL N OF PIKE said, this seems like a wildcard. Not sure why we haven’t had environmental sampling yet from recon. Plane issue? Edit: also, watch the recon fixes. That’ll give us the realest sense of short term heading. Easy to be fooled by satellite, especially with a less organized storm.

Yeah not quite sure what to make of it. Every degree matters, especially since the trend has continued to be a more extended northward push. I don’t think this gets to 75W obviously…but some westward drift toward 70-71W could mean a greater chance of direct impacts in ENE/Atlantic Canada.

What did I come back to?

Obviously conditions were ideal 24 hours ago, but it’s clear from recon that shear absolutely rocked the inner core today. It may not even be a major hurricane right now. No guidance saw that coming. That said, this may take off again once the shear abates. I wonder what’ll happen to the wind field when it tries to reorganize.

Yeah, the second period of RI for Lee was one of the strongest observed in the basin.

Meh

Congrats!

Yeah, it’s ugly for them verbatim. I don’t know much about the topography, but I imagine the surge would be bad. Hard to believe this is all still 8-9 days out on the guidance lol. Close, but Fiona was further east—center hit Cape Breton Island, was such a massive storm though I noted significant wind damage all the way into New Brunswick. We need ‘em though. Not getting a big dog north without one. It just so happens that 95% of them are kickers when there’s something tangible nearby.

Yep. Troughs galore this time of year. OTS is still squarely on the table, even as the potential for Atlantic Canada has increased.

Don’t worry @Hazey, we get these all the time. Just a breezy nor’easter from what I’ve been told.

You’re basically Louisiana now.

Apparently.

The shift in medium range guidance there was one of the most extreme shifts I’ve ever seen for tropical.

At this range I agree about Atlantic Canada, though plenty of time for shifts a la Franklin.

I don’t think it’s an ERC. I think it’s just the shear has undercut it some. It’s not a 5 anymore but certainly still a strong 4.

Well that’s social media. I’m talking about this thread. I get that people are imby here so if it’s not a category four over your head it’s meh and boring, but this is worthy of tracking with expectations in check. To be clear—I’m not saying that folks should only talk about the hit possibilities. I appreciate the analysis about the continued less than “ideal” troughing from some, or the need to move past 70W, or there being too many moving pieces to feel confident in any additional westward shift, but that’s what I want to see. Analysis.

Also, what’s with this chasing outlier ensembles narrative? Kev’s been doing his hype thing, but even he was at like 30% odds when sober. Weenies will weenie but it’s no different than any other season. To my knowledge nobody has seriously said this is a high likelihood thing.