WxWatcher007

Oh it's gone. Bermuda threat, if that.

A potential effect of the monsoonal depression persisting over the same location for so long is that the elongated surface gyre with multiple MCSs is likely cooling SSTs a degree or two to that central and significant location of the MDR. Though 91L may eventually go on to organize into a TC and move on into the Western or Northwestern Atlantic basin, such a long duration broad convectively active gyre may leave a large area of sub 28° SSTs for systems that traverse that locale down the road. Though it's still warm early September in the tropics so that should rebound some. My forecast is in trouble. The basin is a disaster. I’m going to need late September and October to produce. Rough season for this tropical weenie.

Good convective bursts continue with 91L, but it's easily apparent that it's still a disorganized mess.

For whatever it’s worth, not a whole hell of a lot at this stage probably, there’s some deep and fairly persistent convection over the southern lobe of the elongated low. This is where recon found a semblance of a mid-level feature earlier. Not sure what’s happening under the hood but if it doesn’t get gutted by dry air it could help with organization by persisting overnight. Further south may be better for quicker development odds but dry air is everywhere. Crazy.

Really loving these historical look backs. Thanks.

What I find most interesting is that virtually all the basins have been extraordinarily quiet or had long stretches of quiet.

Nice. I’m dipping my toe in the water. It’s great to do something different and take on a new challenge.

I’m teaching a course on law and public service at UConn this fall. Time flies.

Hopefully the October run continues. That was an awesome storm.

My first class was a success this evening!

It’s hard to believe, but 15 years after I first stepped on campus, I led my first class at UConn. Beautiful evening on campus.

Really incredible rapid intensification from 91…oh wait, sorry, this is the other side of the globe.

I still have hope I’m not going down in flames! It’s only August…it’s only August…it’s…only…

I’m not worried about my 10/6/4 forecast…yet…

Considering we can barely get convection in the entire basin, that’s a step up

It’s pretty wild. Ray really has me wondering if the volcano eruption has something to do with it.

We flush the GFS

Oh yeah, Grace was one that was supposed to have a high ceiling on the guidance and come more north early on in the but it muddled along right up to the western Caribbean and plowed straight west as the track there shows.

I know it’s still extremely early, but it just seems to me if the steering pattern collapses this one goes OTS.

From zero to two invests!

Just updated the OP to provide a little more context.

This evening the NHC designated the broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic Invest 91L. This began as a complex interaction between the most vigorous African wave of the season thus far (top), and a feature in the monsoon trough (bottom). There was growing consensus in development in the ensembles, and that is slowly being realized as the two features in the August 25th image above began to interact and form the broad low we see this evening. There is strong consensus on the guidance that this becomes a tropical cyclone in the next five days, with the Euro operational model and ensembles showing tropical cyclone genesis in the next 48-72 hours. The other guidance also shows development, increasing confidence that despite the omnipresent dry air that has dominated the Atlantic, this area has the best odds yet to overcome and develop. The ensemble guidance and operational models, once again led by the Euro, show a potentially favorable environment as the low reaches the SW Atlantic. It is early to discuss track guidance as we do not have a well-defined low yet, but for now at least, long range guidance suggests ridging in the Pacific Northwest that may allow for troughing to keep this one away from the US coast. Again, very early and not worth much discussion yet IMO. The first step is development, and we will see if this gradual organization over the course of the day and evening convective activity allows for us to break the named storm drought.

Life above the tree line is a whole different world. You’ll love it regardless of the direction. Congrats.

12z EPS—It’s a pretty strong signal that this doesn’t really get going until the Antilles, but development likely happens sooner. Not really thinking about track at this point.