WxWatcher007

I miss the days when tropical storms were only named when they had 3/4 of an eyewall developed.

NOAA just doubled down on an above average season. Would need the basin to light up soon for that to happen IMO.

Doubling down?

Interesting…

Noticed it too late last night. It looks like dry air is more of an inhibitor than shear and 06z looked a little more organized entering the Gulf than 00z. Would need a lot to develop but as long as it’s convectively active it’s worth a casual eye?

In addition to decaying fronts, I do think we will see a couple of the larger tropical waves that struggle in the MDR find a more favorable environment in the western Atlantic. I also think that once the stability issues break in the eastern MDR we see an uptick in development there, before most of those systems get recurved or shredded by the TUTTs that will be lurking. It looks like the eastern MDR heating up is about 6-10 days away. Unlike last week, it looks like the signal for activity is moving up in time rather than getting consistently pushed back on the ensembles.

Enjoy that while you can lol

It has been relentless and the crabgrass is trying to make a resurgence. Shrubs and bushes are massive now lol.

Congrats PF on the NAM What a model

Yeah more scattered stuff on the HRRR.

How often is Tokyo directly impacted by a TC?

Definitely odd to see the Euro more bullish in the long range, but I do think we’re starting to see signs of life right around when climo begins to take off ~Aug 20. Delayed to be sure as I thought late July/early August would have a window, but I don’t think we get through the month with a shutout.

I’m not a believer that this’ll be a good winter down here, but I divorced winter last year so it’s whatever.

Let’s get one of those tropical waves to pop close to home.

Back to earth

Solid discussion from BOX highlighting the uncertainty tomorrow and flooding/severe potential.

Euro bullseyes SE MA tomorrow. Definitely north compared to yesterday.

HREF is pretty impressive for tomorrow.

GFS is meh

I don’t think so. Everything about this looks non-tropical to me. For that kind of scenario you really want a low to pop off the SE coast, acquire tropical characteristics, and tangle with a trough as it rolls NE.

It has been unreal. I’m just under 14” since July 2.

All kidding aside, tomorrow does have the look of another heavy precipitation event in SNE, provided the low doesn’t slide as far south as the earlier Euro depicted. For CT, I don’t think we get a low north enough to warm sector and bring a severe threat, but SE MA maybe?

We want NAM. We NEED NAM. Big rains/Big storms or bust.