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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    EPS have been backing west the last three runs. We'll see if that continues over the next few days as Fiona intensifies. It looks like the strongest members are furthest west.
  2. WxWatcher007
    Good luck down there.
  3. WxWatcher007
    In a big way Probably worth another post soon. For all the talk of this period being quiet there's a lot going on. Peak finds a way.
  4. WxWatcher007
    It's a legit threat up there. Not sure how much further west it can adjust but 5 days out a lot can happen. Thinking the GFS is probably too far east and the Euro is a little too outrageous, but a significant one may be on the table for eastern NS and NF. Interesting that the stronger members are further west on the GEFS.
  5. WxWatcher007
    Targets your highlighted area for the season.
  6. WxWatcher007
    And sure enough, it took off on the 12z Euro.
  7. WxWatcher007
    It's not the GFS, but the 12z Euro does have more development of that wave in just a few days time.
  8. WxWatcher007
    The cane is probably fantasy, but there is a signal for TC genesis across guidance once Fiona moves out.
  9. WxWatcher007
    90mph/975mb at 2pm with a rapidly improving satellite appearance.
  10. WxWatcher007
    I know they have been burned, a lot, by waves this year, but the NHC should probably tag this one for tracking. It has a significant signal for TC genesis across guidance and the environment does look conducive for development once Fiona gets out of the way.
  11. WxWatcher007
    Looks like deep convection is firing and trying to wrap around the eye again.
  12. WxWatcher007
    I'm probably running behind on NS, but I still feel pretty good about my forecast, especially with half of my hurricane forecast verifying and Fiona likely to attain MH status (though that was also the case with Earl and to a lesser extent Danielle). Still think we see an active period late September into early October as we move into homebrew season. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (3)Hurricanes: 6 (3)Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)
  13. WxWatcher007
    It looks like the eye will be out over the Atlantic in the next few hours based on Fiona's current heading on radar.
  14. WxWatcher007
    It looked very close last night, but he nailed the eye.
  15. WxWatcher007
    Both the GFS and Euro have western Caribbean activity late this week/early next week.
  16. WxWatcher007
    Looks like the structure really pulled itself together right after I went to bed. Very impressive radar and IR appearance.
  17. WxWatcher007
    Whew, Fiona would go nuclear for a bit if that jet stream evolution played out.
  18. WxWatcher007
    I definitely think this is a threat for Atlantic Canada. The EPS has been most west, while the GFS has waffled between a NF hit and scrape just to the east. Regardless, both the operational and ensemble guidance has been throwing out some very deep lows as this gains latitude.
  19. WxWatcher007
    EPS have been consistent. GEFS too to an extent but being further east means it's close between a NF hit and barely wide right.
  20. WxWatcher007
    He's done all he can. If the heading continues he may miss the eyewall too but he's right on the edge. There are some really extraordinary rain totals coming out of PR and they have a long way to go. This is from one of my former coworkers that has family there. The family is ok fortunately.
  21. WxWatcher007
    Best show on TV, each and every week. With money on the line too for countless fans between fantasy, pick 'em and straight betting lol.
  22. WxWatcher007
    I think the great thing about football is the scarcity of it. Every game matters so you need to watch. It adds to the drama. There's not a ton of drama to me watching a MLB game in May, June, July, and August. Everybody's different though.
  23. WxWatcher007
    My guess is that when smoothing the track out over 24 hours or so this will be a blip on a general WNW movement, but we just have to wait and see when it makes the turn NW. I don't think it's anything with the steering pattern--these things tend to be wobbles more often than not. But we'll see.
  24. WxWatcher007
    Just south of due west
  25. WxWatcher007
    18z Euro does push this a little further west and closer to the Turks and Caicos. I'd definitely be watching closely there with this westward jog. Recon is also out doing high altitude sampling of the environment ahead. Any adjustments in the steering pattern would be important for the islands, Bermuda, and potentially Atlantic Canada.
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