WxWatcher007

12z Euro

Yeah I’m thinking it’s probably in the 940-50mb range which is already big time. It is extraordinary to see the ensemble members of the EPS be so deep though.

920s would be hard, but 940s/950s certainly look doable, especially if Fiona takes off further south and is slower to weaken. Like Ray said, the transition blows this up. The angle of approach probably maximizes potential too.

I’ve been closely tracking it for a few days now. It’s pretty incredible to see the EPS members throwing out these solutions. We’ll see if it verifies.

Good catch. Fixed. Thanks.

Heh, since writing that 97L became a TD and is expected to become a NS, and 98L became a cherry with a special NHC update.

I don't really think they jumped. The explanation in the 5am disco was compelling to me. It does look borderline now though.

This one is definitely interesting. Beat me to posting the EPS

Welcome to the peak. Delayed but not denied, the Atlantic basin gradually picked up in early September. Now we have multiple areas of activity with two threats to land. The last three named storms have become hurricanes, and this morning we have our first major of the 2022 season, Category Three Hurricane Fiona. So far, Fiona has exceeded expectations. Major Hurricane Fiona Fiona made its first landfall along the extreme SW coast of Puerto Rico, bringing gusts up to 113mph along the coast. The worst aspect of the hurricane, however, has been rainfall. Fiona brought catastrophic rain to much of southern Puerto Rico. From there, it wobbled WSW, causing a second landfall over Hispaniola. Unexpectedly, not only was it minimally disrupted, it quickly intensified. This morning it looks like it is undergoing some reorganization as we see pressure continue to drop, but not much of a response by the winds, yet. The forecast for Fiona now is pretty straightforward post-Hispaniola. Another trough is set to traverse the northeast and turn Fiona NE/NNE. The timing should allow Fiona to miss Bermuda, but it creates a problem for Atlantic Canada. The guidance has been producing some extraordinary solutions for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland as the trough essentially captures Fiona and pulls it northward and maybe even NNW into the region. It won't be a major hurricane at this point, but the guidance shows some exceptionally deep lows as it transitions to a post-tropical system. We'll see if that holds, but we're looking at a high end event in Atlantic Canada as currently modeled. Just as Earl likely reshuffled the deck for Fiona, Fiona is likely to clear the deck for our next threat, newly designated Invest 98L. Invest 98L This one hasn't been on many radars until very recently, but it is a great example of how waves that find hostile conditions in the tropical Atlantic can find more favorable conditions once they get further west in a higher OHC and more moist environment. To be clear, there's still some dry air nearby as evidenced by arc clouds. There's also some shear imparted by Fiona's outflow. This should hold development in check for a bit. Once Fiona clears though, the upper level environment becomes highly favorable for development. That's trouble, because the departure of Fiona also allows for a more favorable landfall upper level steering pattern through the Caribbean. I'm showing the operational Euro here from 00z to illustrate the upper level steering pattern. It's just easier to see 98L on this than the EPS. Until Fiona departs, there's not a lot of development for 98L. However, once Fiona's influence is gone we see ridging start to build in after another northeast trough. This is a significant signal, and given the current look of 98L, I feel more confident that usual that this will be a problem for somebody. The issue here is not only that there's likely a favorable environment for TC genesis and intensification, but that ironically, what helped keep Fiona an Atlantic Canada threat is probably going to cause this to be a bona fide continental US threat. There's likely to be enough ridging to build in to steer 98L west, and then troughing later next week should allow 98L to gain latitude into the Gulf. Whether that the western or eastern Gulf is unclear. As we saw with the 06z GFS, an earlier weakness could cause issues for Florida and the east coast. Again--it's too early to do much other than speculate. It's pretty clear to me though that this is a legitimate threat to land. Invest 97L Finally, we have 97L. This one isn't worth much ink because it's not a threat to land, but it does look like it's in the process of becoming a short lived TC as long as shear and dry air doesn't halt the current organizational trend. Not much impact other than on my peak season forecast. Today, I got my first MH, and I think another is quite possible with 98L eventually. It looks like the switch has flipped, and I still expect activity continuing into early October when we shift to homebrew season. So far, my forecast is doing very well. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (3)Hurricanes: 6 (3)Major Hurricanes: 4 (1)

Post incoming

It probably has more room to tick west, but you also have to factor in that these sometimes tick east immediately before landfall. Not sure if it happens as often in Atlantic Canada as it does down here in New England. Regardless, blending the ensembles gets a landfall between Cape Breton Island and the western tip of NL. Basically the NHC track. What's impressive to me is the intensity the ensembles bring to the region. If that verified, that'd be something.

Yep, we’re in business now.

These runs for Atlantic Canada are pretty wild lol There's a pretty solid consensus for a significant event up there at this range. The GFS has continued to tick west for now.

Not there yet in the NE quadrant.

Just a disaster. Can't even punch it in from the 9.

110mph/971mb at 11pm Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved significantly this evening. The eye has warmed and become more distinct and the surrounding ring of deep convection has cooled and is more symmetric. More recently, the eye has become smaller in size and this has also been observed by both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been sampling the storm this evening. The aircraft have reported that the eye has shrunk to around 10 n mi in diameter. The NOAA plane has measured a peak flight level wind of 104 kt at around 8000 ft, while the Air Force aircraft has reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 93 kt. Peak SFMR winds of 94-96 kt have also been found, and these data support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt. The hurricane's outflow is somewhat restricted over the western portion of the circulation owing to some moderate southwesterly shear of the storm. Although this shear is not forecast to abate much, the intensity guidance indicates that warm water and a moist atmosphere should allow for continued intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours. Given the recent improvement in structure, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a slightly faster rate of strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is at the upper end of the intensity guidance. The official forecast shows Fiona becoming a major hurricane overnight, and brings the hurricane to category 4 status in a day or so. Eyewall replacement cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity in the 24-72 h time period. By day 4, the hurricane is forecast to interact with a strong mid-tropospheric trough, which will start the system's extratropical transition. The process is forecast to be complete by the end of the period, and Fiona is expected to remain a powerful extratropical cyclone through day 5. The initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. There track forecast philosophy again remains the same as the previous few forecast cycles. The hurricane should gradually turn north while moving around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After 72 hours, Fiona is forecast to turn north-northeastward and accelerate as a strong mid-level trough nears the northeastern United States. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across parts of Puerto Rico and across northern and eastern Dominican Republic through tonight. These rainfall amounts will continue to produce life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. 3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 20.6N 70.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 21.8N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 23.3N 71.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 24.6N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 26.3N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 28.5N 69.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 31.1N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 39.8N 60.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 49.7N 58.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

He looks like Jameis Winston. Good lord.

Recon coming around for a NE to SW pass so we're going to find out shortly whether it's done enough to attain major status.

Can't worry about blowing a lead when you play the entire game like you don't belong on the field!

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 2:09ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303Storm Name: FionaStorm Number & Year: 07 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 17Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 1:31:30ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.42N 70.41WB. Center Fix Location: 86 statute miles (139 km) to the SSE (147°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,856m (9,370ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.71 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Open in the southG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 96kts (110.5mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NNE (20°) of center fix at 1:28:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 89° at 86kts (From the E at 99.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the N (9°) of center fix at 1:27:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 71kts (81.7mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix at 1:35:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 223° at 69kts (From the SW at 79.4mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix at 1:35:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E (84°) from the flight level center at 23:37:30Z

Well I just mean the system itself. It’s a phenomenal environment for TC intensification as modeled.

This looks legit for Atlantic Canada.

It’s coming.

Very close to our first major of the season. Very impressive period of intensification today.