WxWatcher007

Don’t know why RadarScope comes up so blurry here, but definitely some significant tightening of the center despite the appearance on IR in the last few hours. No response by the winds yet. It still needs to wrap around fully and consistently.

Maybe it is a little more interesting up your way. There have been a few good ones in NS and NL in recent years.

I think it’ll be a hurricane, but that center reformation has me spooked that I’d miss the center. One thing that I think I learned from Josh is island roulette is a dangerous game. If I land in PR tonight and things shift to a landfall in DR or the USVI there’s nothing I can do.

I have a hotel and plane ticket to PR in my cart right now and I’m not sure if I want to pull the trigger on it.

Another case of the IR being deceiving. It’s clearly in flux right now structurally. I do think the center trying to vertically align is a sign that we have higher odds of modest intensification before PR. Interesting that 30 kt RI odds are that high. That’s concerning. Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022 Fiona is going through some structural changes this morning. From a zoomed-out view on satellite imagery, Fiona appears better organized compared to previous days, with the convective envelope becoming more symmetric, and upper-level outflow expanding around most of the storm. However, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the central part of the circulation still lacks some vertical coherency. From the best we can tell from the aircraft data, the low-level center appears to be re-forming farther east near a recent burst of deep convection. The central pressure may have risen a bit during this re-organization process, but maximum winds are still estimated to be 50 kt. With the center re-formation, the initial motion has become more uncertain, although Fiona has definitely slowed down from yesterday. The longer-term average motion is 275/7 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Fiona expected to gradually recurve around the western extent of the western Atlantic subtropical ridge through the 5-day forecast period. The big change, however, is that the adjusted initial position due to the center re-formation has tugged all of the guidance eastward on this cycle. The new NHC forecast is also east of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids, now showing a track near or over the western part of Puerto Rico in about 36 hours. The caveat to this forecast is that additional center re-formations could cause models to shift again, and therefore there's quite a bit of uncertainty in the short-term track forecast. Especially in cases like this, users are reminded to not focus solely on the track forecast itself, and to account for potential shifts in the track east or west. The upper-level environment over Fiona has improved, and deep-layer shear is expected to be light to moderate for the next several days. In fact, along with a favorable thermodynamic environment, the Rapid Intensification Indices have increased, and now show a 1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly Fiona can take advantage of these favorable conditions given its current structure. But either way, intensification is anticipated, and Fiona is likely to be near or at hurricane strength while it moves near Puerto Rico on Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous prediction, but it still lies below the intensity consensus aids. If Fiona gets better organized today, then it's possible that additional increases to the intensity forecast will be forthcoming later today. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto Rico Sunday and Sunday night, and are possible across the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands today and will spread westward to the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later today, and to Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions will reach the Dominican Republic by Sunday night. 2. Heavy rains from Fiona will spread west to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, the Dominican Republic Sunday, and the Turks and Caicos Monday night. This rainfall is likely to produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly in Puerto Rico. 3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen while moving near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through Monday, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.3N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.6N 64.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 17.3N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 18.2N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO 48H 19/1200Z 19.2N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 20.4N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 21.6N 70.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 23.9N 70.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 27.6N 69.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Yeah, it’s not an Ida lol but damn good for that latitude. Anyway, it’ll be in Greenland next run.

What a weenie run that was lol. Still favor much further east though. We’ll see what the 12z suite shows.

Low of 49 here this morning. Low of 45 yesterday.

If I can just weenie out for a second, that 00z Euro run was an all timer of a run for NS. I mean my God lol. And yes, to really weenie out--the busted gust product

10:37z so just a few hours ago. There is another new blowup of convection near the center, but you don't really see a nascent core developing yet here or with some of the recon obs on the first pass.

Thanks. I think it's going to be hard for this to miss either trough. The first still looks to turn it northwestward/northward into the weakness between ridges--the weakness is there no matter what, and that D6 trough looks too big to miss. It does look disorganized currently per recon and microwave imagery, so I do think we'll need to wait to see how Hispaniola impacts it before locking things in.

Yeah I still don’t think this dissipates over Hispaniola so I agree that’s a low probability outcome, and I also agree the second trough gets it late so a straight WNW push into say the SE is unlikely. But the orientation of that trough (progressive vs cutoff) matters for Bermuda and maybe maritime Canada. I’d still place odds at 75% no land impacts post Antilles right now. Still, something to watch as the details of the steering pattern are still being sorted out and we haven’t seen how disruptive an Hispaniola hit will be.

I’m not really sure what to think of it honestly. I still strongly lean toward a GFS non continental US outcome, but the overnight guidance had some substantive upper level changes with the kicker trough IMO. Maybe it’s a hiccup run, but it’s likely an indication that it’s still too early for any locked in solutions post Antilles—another landfall or harmlessly OTS. We probably need to see what this looks like after the Greater Antilles, and I’m very concerned about the slowdown and flooding risk.

Hmm. I’d like others to chime in, but it seems the overnight operational guidance turned that trough from a progressive kicker to something that cuts off. It could be a hiccup suite like the ones that drove this into land a few days ago, but if that becomes a trend, it’s a substantial shift even if it’s just for maritime Canada. It happens at different times on the guidance which results in radically different outcomes between the Euro/CMC and GFS, but it’s there. I didn’t expect that. The Euro in particular has been stubbornly holding onto this one. Not really changing my odds from yesterday, but it’s interesting.

At least one of us is close to the action

Oh yeah, flood risk would be top of mind. If there's any risk there it's an easy call to go. Even big wind can be manageable in a sound structure.

Yeah it’s close. Unless you had the stomach (no disrespect) to stay and let the chase come to you and live with the consequences, I’d probably prepare to leave by Sunday. You have to consider if you could deal with potentially being stuck at least a few days after a hurricane, with power out and scarce supplies.

18z Euro is a good bit stronger than 12z through the end of the run, 90 hours. Track is similar to 12z and goes through the eastern part of Hispaniola.

It looks like the USVI/PR and Haiti/DR are in for a rough ride. Hopefully the rainfall threat doesn’t materialize down there.

When were you originally scheduled to leave?

No matter the intensity, it’s unlikely to miss the second trough. That has trended stronger and keeps the ridge from building over the top.

Tropical has produced more than winter the last few years around here.

Even the western outlier Canadian, which still puts Fiona near the Bahamas has a clear recurve steering pattern that kicks it out well offshore.

It’s 2nd and 38 and the punter is warming up.