WxWatcher007

It almost certainly does to an extent, but this isn’t even a calculated risk lol Maybe I’m overthinking it and they’re just drunk..

This is insane.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi On this site you can follow recon visually with overlays or just follow the data from recon flights. Hope this helps.

I’m bad at sarcasm

I don't know. I think flooding was expected but not to this extent.

Yeah this was a pretty quick ERC and it looks like the eye is contracting. Unless shear or dry air disrupts the center, it stands to reason that it would begin a period of (re)intensification overnight.

First VDM from recon Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 2:26ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302Storm Name: IanStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 24Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 2:05:00ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.68N 83.00WB. Center Fix Location: 77 statute miles (124 km) to the W (276°) from Key West, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,703m (8,868ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.12 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 85° at 5kts (From the E at 6mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the westG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 89kts (102.4mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NNW (331°) of center fix at 1:59:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 71° at 102kts (From the ENE at 117.4mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (327°) of center fix at 1:58:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 92kts (105.9mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 2:11:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 156° at 117kts (From the SSE at 134.6mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 2:12:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 2:12:00Z

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 2:16ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302Storm Name: IanStorm Number: 09 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 24Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 2Z on the 28th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 24.7N 83.0W Location: 77 statute miles (124 km) to the W (277°) from Key West, FL, USA. Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -439m (-1,440 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 952mb (28.12 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 25.7°C (78°F) 85° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph) 925mb 257m (843 ft) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.0°C (77°F) 115° (from the ESE) 8 knots (9 mph) 850mb 1,000m (3,281 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 20.9°C (70°F) 110° (from the ESE) 6 knots (7 mph) 700mb 2,676m (8,780 ft) Other data not available. Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 2:05Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 24.66N 83.00W - Time: 2:05:20Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 24.66N 83.01W - Time: 2:09:14Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 707mb to 951mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 95° (from the E) - Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 952mb (Surface) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 25.7°C (78°F) 850mb 21.8°C (71.2°F) 20.9°C (70°F) 764mb 17.8°C (64.0°F) 16.4°C (62°F) 700mb 17.2°C (63.0°F) 12.8°C (55°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 952mb (Surface) 85° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph) 911mb 120° (from the ESE) 9 knots (10 mph) 850mb 110° (from the ESE) 6 knots (7 mph) 707mb 355° (from the N) 2 knots (2 mph)

High end flooding occurring in Key West

Recon is about to confirm whether it is done or not.

I usually hold my tongue, but he should know better than to use the HRRR.

Also starting to see lightning increase in the southern part of the outer eyewall in the last hour on radar.

That main thread is a work of art.

Good time for recon to head out. It looks like the cycle is concluding but recon would obviously confirm. I think the question now is whether the new eyewall will contract and bring the maximum winds up, or whether the energy becomes dedicated to broadening the hurricane force winds via a larger wind field.

Here are the 00z spaghetti models. I do wonder how far out over the Atlantic this one will trend. Probably won't make much of a difference as we're currently talking about a minimal category one versus a strong TS, but it is one of those areas where there is still a fair amount of uncertainty and the trend doesn't seem to have stopped yet. A more progressive track over Florida probably means a greater (to a limit) shift over the Atlantic.

There is nothing like a tracking thread on AmWx when something big is coming

Storm mode Radio show coming? lol

96 frame radar image from the COD site. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=BYX-N0B-0-96-100

Recon is by far the best way to receive the data necessary for real-time analysis of tropical cyclone structure and strength. There are many times where we see a great (or terrible) IR appearance and recon finds otherwise. These are complex processes and sometimes it takes time for winds to respond to pressure falls, expanded wind fields, etc. IR can give you a sense of an overall structural trend, but recon tells you what's actually happening.

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 The well-defined eye of Ian emerged off the coast of western Cuba about an hour ago. Earlier reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ian strengthened up through landfall, with an estimated pressure of 947 mb over western Cuba. While the hurricane has filled somewhat due to the passage over Cuba, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data show that it has grown in size. The initial wind speed is set to 100 kt. Ian is moving northward, or 005/9 kt. Dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft indicate a potent upper-level trough is over the western Gulf of Mexico. The strength of this trough, the associated southwesterly flow, and the vertical depth of Ian appear to be the keys to the forecast. There has been a notable trend toward the hurricane remaining more intact up through landfall, meaning Ian is likely to turn to the northeast and not move as slowly as previously anticipated. However, it should be emphasized that this track remains very uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering features leading to big speed and track differences down the line, not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. The latest forecast is adjusted to the southeast for this advisory, showing landfall 6-12 hours faster than before, and we will have to see if the southern trend continues in the afternoon guidance. The rest of the forecast after landfall has been adjusted to the northeast as well, though it is still slower than the consensus guidance at longer range. The hurricane should remain in a favorable environment for restrengthening over the next day or so while it moves over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in light-shear conditions. While the shear should increase by tomorrow, it isn't expected to be enough to significantly weaken the hurricane before landfall. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for an extremely dangerous hurricane landfall for southwestern Florida. The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Watch for portions of extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a watch. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected to continue in portions of western Cuba today. Devastating wind damage is expected near the core of Ian. 2. Life-threatening storm surge looks increasingly likely along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders if made for your area. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Residents should rush all preparations to completion today. 4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south Florida today, spreading into central and northern Florida tonight and Wednesday, into the Southeast U.S. by Thursday and Friday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding is expected across central Florida into southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina, with widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 23.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 83.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 27.1N 82.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 27.8N 82.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 30/0000Z 28.5N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z 33.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

While we wait for our tropical number to be called, today is the anniversary of Gloria. The last CT hurricane strike predates me.