WxWatcher007

I definitely think this is a threat for Atlantic Canada. The EPS has been most west, while the GFS has waffled between a NF hit and scrape just to the east. Regardless, both the operational and ensemble guidance has been throwing out some very deep lows as this gains latitude.

EPS have been consistent. GEFS too to an extent but being further east means it's close between a NF hit and barely wide right.

He's done all he can. If the heading continues he may miss the eyewall too but he's right on the edge. There are some really extraordinary rain totals coming out of PR and they have a long way to go. This is from one of my former coworkers that has family there. The family is ok fortunately.

Best show on TV, each and every week. With money on the line too for countless fans between fantasy, pick 'em and straight betting lol.

I think the great thing about football is the scarcity of it. Every game matters so you need to watch. It adds to the drama. There's not a ton of drama to me watching a MLB game in May, June, July, and August. Everybody's different though.

My guess is that when smoothing the track out over 24 hours or so this will be a blip on a general WNW movement, but we just have to wait and see when it makes the turn NW. I don't think it's anything with the steering pattern--these things tend to be wobbles more often than not. But we'll see.

Just south of due west

18z Euro does push this a little further west and closer to the Turks and Caicos. I'd definitely be watching closely there with this westward jog. Recon is also out doing high altitude sampling of the environment ahead. Any adjustments in the steering pattern would be important for the islands, Bermuda, and potentially Atlantic Canada.

It has been years since I've watched a whole regular season MLB game. Playoffs are fun though.

This is an interesting westward jog, but I still think it’s highly unlikely this gets disrupted enough to miss the trough altogether. It’s sheared and about to make a longer trip over land, but it’s still a vertically deep storm.

1-12 in pick ‘em after winning week 1. Absolutely unbelievable.

Unfortunately the slow and steady angle of approach is pretty much a worst case scenario from a flooding perspective. The core has only clipped the higher terrain, it is not weakening. But it's driving the southerly feed of moisture off the Carribean right over the island, with orographic enhancement. Maria was horrible and I don't want to say Fiona will eclipse that in impacts. But it may outperform even Georges from a flooding event. This is looking really bad. Yeah, this is about the worst case rainfall scenario for PR. The videos coming out are already really bad.

It’s gone. You’d need to see a massive shift in the steering pattern to make this a continental US threat. @Hazey and Nick should be watching though. The globals have a mean low up there next weekend. For now.

It looks like interaction with PR didn’t slow down organization much at all. I hope the DR is ready for this one.

Atlantic Canada will need to watch this too as the guidance tries edging this more northward as it interacts with the midweek trough.

My lord these late game collapses have me with my worst pick ‘em early afternoon ever.

Atlantic Canada still very much in it, though it’d likely be going extratropical by then.

You look at that radar and IR and you just know there’s going to be catastrophic flooding in PR. Already seeing high end river flood reports.

Hurricane Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 335 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022 ...FIONA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO... NWS Doppler radar observations indicate that the center of Hurricane Fiona has made landfall along the extreme southwestern coast of Puerto Rico near Punta Tocon at 320 PM AST...1920 UTC. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 85 mph (140 km/h). SUMMARY OF 320 PM AST...1920 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 67.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF MAYAGUEZ PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch/Berg

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (3)Hurricanes: 6 (3)Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)

The last three named storms have become hurricanes.

It’s extremely close to a hurricane if it isn’t there already.

70mph/991mb at 8am. Recon showing a gradually organizing system.

Starting to see a few lightning signatures on radar with a ribbon of higher velocities on the northern side as well.