WxWatcher007

I don’t think it’ll blow up to a major or anything like that, but the disco also mentioned having more time over the Gulf Stream, which should help with convection. I do think there’s still a well enough defined center on radar that it could become more of an inner core with time.

Yikes. Charleston flooding is always a lock.

I expected intensification after that ERC that night, but it was stunning to see how far it went.

Back out over water now. Maybe Ian overperforms again? There’s going to be legit surge along the coastline.

Yeah, normally you’d see that come up the coast some or hook right OTS

Hard pass on snow in October. Too early.

Weeks and weeks of boredom

East money. Obviously the last minute explosion was wild but the environment was primed for a big dog. You could see it from a mile away. Still thinking October produces a couple good storms too if we can get some seeds in the Caribbean.

I’m back in DC for the first time in three years!

Yeah, I’d definitely wait to see if it’s even worth it. While it sucks to miss a storm, it also sucks to chase an underperformer. I know from experience lol.

Not much of a window IMO for it to adjust that much east. You also have to consider whether you’d be wasting money if you travel and this washes out as a strong TS with an ill defined center. Even if it comes in as a 75kt cane you won’t likely be close enough to see those gusts because that’s a flood/surge zone near Charleston. If it were a high 2 or 3 it’d be more worth it I think, but until I see a more definitive move toward that potential it’s a very low likelihood.

Good luck. Keep us updated if you can. You’d need to head further south, I think, otherwise it’s a waste. It’ll probably degrade quickly if you’re not near the center. It’s also still unclear how good the structure of Ian will be after it crosses. I think it’ll be a hurricane at the next landfall, but based on the current track it doesn’t look like there’s a lot of time to maximize potential. If I were chasing, and lord knows I tried figuring it out, I’d probably position in North Charleston and be ready to go west or east. Much of Charleston will be underwater no matter what Ian does so I wouldn’t do that.

I was just about to post. One of the wildest live shots I’ve ever seen. They had to call him in lol.

Extremely close. They may upgrade that pre-landfall period on reanalysis, but it looked to me that Ian got right up to the line and maybe pulled back a bit based on the recon observations. No difference for the landfall zone, though. The damage there will be catastrophic.

God as my witness, and forgive my whining, but I don’t know how to describe the feeling of missing this one. I barely remember the wins, but I can never forget the missed opportunities.

I wish. This is Michael all over again for me. Stuck at work while a big dog is landing in Florida. This ******* sucks.

Latest VDM from recon Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 10:55ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: IanStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 28Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 10:23:12ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.79N 82.86WB. Center Fix Location: 85 statute miles (137 km) to the SW (227°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 940mb (27.76 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 55° at 19kts (From the NE at 22mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 137kts (157.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix at 10:13:09ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 20° at 160kts (From the NNE at 184.1mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix at 10:13:02ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 101kts (116.2mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 10:41:21ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 154° at 139kts (From the SSE at 160.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix at 10:40:39ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,452m (8,045ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,451m (8,041ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 160kts (~ 184.1mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) from the flight level center at 10:13:02Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 26°C (79°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (84°) from the flight level center

Not boring.

This is why blindly locking in tropical forecasts is complete folly. Sometimes you have to work the problem all the way through the end.

I thought with the ERC completed last night that intensification would occur, but this is truly extraordinary. There were some signals for intensification near landfall from the hurricane models, most notably HAFS.