WxWatcher007

This modeled steering pattern ain’t it. Too many troughs. Ridges out of place. Bleh.

I knew that first comment would set things off

I think any tugs away from the coast greatly reduces the odds of impact even if the trough is missed. There’s another one right after it, and it doesn’t cut off. We’d be in business if it did but those are reserved for April lol.

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022 Convective activity is occurring much closer to the low-level center of Fiona this morning, suggesting that the deep-layer westerly shear has decreased a bit. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been flying through Fiona during the past several hours, and winds as high as 57 kt were reported about 2500 ft above the surface, along with SFMR winds slightly higher than 45 kt. The initial intensity remains 45 kt for now, but Fiona could easily attain 50 kt soon if the deep convection remains close to the center. After losing latitude most of the day yesterday and overnight, Fiona has started moving north of due west, with an initial motion of 275/12 kt. A north-of-due-west motion with some slowing of the forward speed is expected through early Sunday, with Fiona steered across the Leeward Islands and the far northeastern Caribbean Sea by subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic. Fiona then reaches the western extent of the ridge just beyond 48 hours, and it is expected to move more slowly and turn northwestward across Hispaniola in 3-4 days, and then be near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas in about 5 days. The spread among the deterministic track models and the ensembles has decreased since yesterday, and there's therefore a little bit more confidence in the NHC track prediction. In addition, there has not been much shift in the guidance since the previous forecast cycle, and the updated NHC forecast lies very close to the previous prediction, and in the middle of the guidance envelope close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Fiona is located near a tight gradient of deep-layer shear, and it's possible that its south-of-due-west motion since yesterday brought it into a lighter-shear environment for the convection to build back closer to the center. Model guidance indicates that the shear is likely to remain moderate for much of the forecast period, but at the same time, upper-level divergence and mid-level moisture are forecast to increase. Coupled with the expected decrease in forward speed, these factors could allow Fiona's structure to become more vertically stacked over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, and gradual strengthening is still anticipated during the next 3 days. Based on this forecast, Fiona could be very near hurricane strength as it approaches the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. The terrain of Hispaniola is likely to disrupt Fiona's circulation, but the global models suggest that Fiona shouldn't have much trouble reorganizing itself once over the far southwestern Atlantic, and the NHC forecast now calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane by the end of the 5-day forecast period. This prediction is slightly below the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the Leeward Islands within the warning area starting this afternoon, and will spread westward across the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday and Puerto Rico late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Dominica tonight and in the British Virgin Islands on Saturday. 2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands by this evening, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic Sunday, and the Turks and Caicos Monday night or Tuesday. This rainfall may produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 3. Fiona is expected to strengthen gradually over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, and it could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the southern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and early Monday. Watches could be required for portions of the Dominican Republic later today. 4. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving across Hispaniola early next week, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 16.0N 59.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.2N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.6N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 17.0N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 17.3N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 17.8N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 18.5N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...S COAST OF DOM. REP. 96H 20/1200Z 20.5N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 21/1200Z 22.5N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tropical is my thing and all I need is something reasonably chaseable, so I’m interested in this one. Personal interest aside, I agree that regardless of what models may show, the window for significant direct impacts in the US is not open that much. We’re still fairly far out and without much upper level recon data near the storm, but that’s where we are. I’d probably put the odds of a US hit, including an OBX scrape, at ~25% currently.

Somewhere @WinterWxLuvr is pulling out his knife and is ready to cut anyone in the region wishing for rain.

Sharing this one here too. We’ll see if this is a brief deviation or something models will need to adjust to. There are some great products at this site btw.

Man there are some good products out there. I forgot about this one.

That sounds amazing

I may wrap myself in a Canadian flag and sing O Canada if the CMC scores a coup here.

Keep the weenie runs coming.

Perfect evening. Spent it working on the front yard. What a disaster the prior owners left. Weeds everywhere.

I’d be surprised if it collapsed given how resilient it has been in the face of shear. It’s up to 60mph at 5pm despite the structure.

Minimum pressure and maximum sustained winds up at 5pm.

Recon is in and is finding some strong FL and SFMR readings. Doesn’t speak to the organization of it, but it’s an interesting data point nonetheless. Winds haven’t weakened yet despite the exposed LLC.

Is that a personal preference or is there something more to be gleamed from using that?

12z yesterday 00z 12z today

Yeah, there are some serious flooding concerns down there even if this doesn’t intensify. They don’t need this.

Would be pretty funny if in keeping to the theme of an underwhelming season, this one becomes a US threat.

Interesting, but we’ll see if the ensembles follow.

Jesus, the Euro’s caving to the Canadian. I kid, but that’s a significant shift for this model. Shows how sensitive this one is and yes, OTS is still favored.

Euro still runs it through Haiti/DR between 96 and 120, and then interestingly has it brushing eastern Cubs at 144. Pretty weak verbatim but may have some downstream impacts on track.

The mid-level change on this run is radically different at the time frame than the prior three runs, which speaks to the volatility of the pattern itself. We’ll see what the ensembles do. Edit: not sure if it’s truly radical, but there are significant changes verbatim in the amplitude and placement of the ridge/trough. Not a big deal in the whole scheme of things as it’s still early and we don’t have recon, but just worth discussing the model run.

There’s a big kicker over the northeast. Likely well out to sea verbatim.

I’m thoroughly ashamed to say it, but at the very least I just want to see some big weenie op runs. I was almost a new man at work yesterday after that GFS run.