WxWatcher007

An overperformer in the basin! Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 945 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened to a tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 50 mph (85 km/h). This will be incoporated in the next advisory that will be released before 11 pm AST (0300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 945 PM AST...0150 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 52.0W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Well damn. Gonna need a title change @GaWx Finally an overperformer Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 945 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened to a tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 50 mph (85 km/h). This will be incoporated in the next advisory that will be released before 11 pm AST (0300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 945 PM AST...0150 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 52.0W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

We have Fiona.

Latest ASCAT and microwave passes:

Yeah still a fairly long way to go.

Here’s a great HM inspired thread on the complexities of figuring out the steering pattern. Recon will probably help this a bit, but there’s a lot to sort out with the Pacific having a significant impact on the Atlantic upper level pattern in the next week.

Contender in the long range for the US. Not necessarily New England lol

Although the operationals still have somewhat limited use, the fact that they all basically agree that this runs into the Greater Antilles and still finds a way to intensify in the southwest Atlantic is interesting. Ensembles more or less endorse that idea too. I do think we're past the point where this one fizzles even with land interaction, unless it runs over both Haiti/DR and the length of Cuba. This looks like a TS to me right now. At the moment I think it's going to be just organized enough to survive a day of land interaction but not so organized as to run entirely north of the islands. Not quite an analog, but I can see an Isaias type situation where it's middling along until it gets clear of the islands and begins to turn northward. Tomorrow's recon data for the system itself and the environment ahead will be very helpful. Shear is present and probably caps this before the Antilles, but dry air hasn't slowed this one down much. That alone has me starting to believe this one could be a contender in the long range.

This looks like a TS to me right now. Very nice convection near the LLC.

Far too soon to say. We're just going to be watching this through the weekend to see how the overall steering pattern shakes out.

I’m not so sure land interaction kills this one unless it’s meandering over the mountains, which looks unlikely at this point.

Hard pass. 70 and sunny is better on 9/30.

Often it is but the caveat here is that guidance often has an easier time generally picking out the larger scale steering patterns. We saw that with Earl to an extent. The devil is in the details.

Sorry—for comparison’s sake.

…But the ridge orientation is nowhere close to the GFS.

Unlike the GFS, there’s not as much of a weakness on the 12z Euro, which puts this much closer to the Bahamas in a week.

It introduces a weakness off the coast that allows for an escape route. Could be real but if it’s not the ridge is a big player. Too early to know at this point.

I’m not going to lie, I’d love to see our boring period end with a bang. September cane or October nuke.

It’ll be 1,000 miles east of Bermuda next run lol.

Phil frolicking all the way to Quebec City on that run

lol gfs

As soon as that weakness closed and that big ridge popped over the top it was trouble for somebody. Not worth much but we take the eye candy on a miserable day in the office

Not that it matters that much right now but both the GFS and Canadian look strange to me for different reasons. Setting the Canadian aside because of its track record, if anything close to that ridge on the GFS pops that’s trouble. The weakness the GFS briefly produces before the ridging takes over late next week pulls TD 7 more northward than it’d otherwise be if that weakness doesn’t materialize. Edit: but even then you see in subsequent hours that the escape OTS path quickly closes. It’s interesting, but again, far out.