WxWatcher007

Earl let me down in not becoming a major, and it looks like the ones above will go 0/3. Just a struggle to get anything really going this year.

Earl flopping hurts but I still think my forecast will be fine at the end of the day. Homebrew region needs to produce.

Haha I just posted this in the Kay thread.

Another underperformer

Basin sucks. That is all.

It’s a chilly start here. Low of 51.5.

While it’s a known bias for the Euro to overdevelop AEWs, it’s actually incredible to see the operational and ensembles consistently spin up what are effectively fantasy storms in the MDR. The only one it’s done a reasonably good job with is Earl, and even then the operational was too aggressive. We don’t even need to go into the seasonal forecast, which is objectively an all-time fail. The GFS hasn’t been much better, with a truly awful consistently wrong forecast in the western Caribbean (another known bias) and overdevelopment at times too. Part of it is the tropical Atlantic being overwhelmingly hostile, but even short term forecasts have been way off, Earl and Danielle being two examples.

Probably the best thing the previous owners here did was install solar and a new roof simultaneously. I’m still trying to figure out the lease vs purchase thing and when to do it, but my bill has been cheap. I’m about +600 kWh this year.

These systems are fascinating. It intensified in high shear and weakened (a bit) when shear relaxed. Probably related to the earlier dry air intrusion and expanded wind field as @NorthHillsWxsaid.

Recon is making a SW to NE pass.

That’s fair lol but be careful we don’t need another morality debate.

It’s spectacular out here today. Beautiful.

And to be clear that doesn’t necessarily mean I’m talking high end stuff every week in October lol.

I think there’s going to be a lot of research on why we’ve underperformed so much during August in the tropical Atlantic. At this point, I need to see something develop out there to believe it. I’ve pulled the plug on that part of the MDR. Just look at the naked swirl that is 95L. Can’t make it up But it’s far too early to even look at the plug for the western Atlantic. I agree with the eastern Gulf being the main zone for landfall risk, and then the Carolinas (really NC) to a lesser extent. While the more frequent troughs will probably keep whatever develops out in the Atlantic OTS, when TC genesis happens in the western Atlantic it would pull those north/NE. It’s not terribly hard to get something to pop under a trough by the time we get to October.

It’s all or nothing with this crowd. July and August were dead. Historically dead. Fact. September has only produced two storms so far. That’s not a lot. Fact. Both eventually became systems that put us above normal ACE for the period. Fact. Would you rather have 5 middling tropical storms with two threatening the US or two hurricanes that churn OTS? You get to the same place objectively but it’s different subjectively. Also, late September and the first 2/3 of October are literally the downward slope of the climatological peak, with a secondary “peak” of hurricane activity in October. It’s not analogous to a snow weenie talking about March and certainly not April. I really don’t care if people crap on the season—it’s been an all-time underperformer thus far. The MDR has been a nearly unmitigated disaster. But we can do a lot better than analysis that thinly veils whether we like tropical activity or not. Over the next six weeks, climo shifts out of a continuously hostile tropical Atlantic toward the Western Atlantic, where stability and to a lesser extent wave breaking induced TUTTs are less of an issue. Yes, there are probably going to be issues too in this part of the basin, but I don’t think we’re barreling toward either hyperactive or dead. Most of the time we end up near the middle anyway.

Hurricane of yore

Yeah, I’m still at the stage of figuring out what’s necessary and what’s just nice to have.

I mean it’s up at 45N

It’s running out of time as a hurricane and didn’t quite meet its intensity potential, but this has been quite an impressive system at this latitude.

Sigh. I guess it makes sense.

Wait a minute, should I get a dehumidifier for my basement?

We're all Atlantic focused, but this deserves a thread. Getting bona fide tropical impacts in southern California is rare, but the potential is there as Category Two Hurricane Kay weakens as it skirts the Baja California coast before "recurving" out to sea. While there's a fair amount of consensus on the guidance about the track, the rate of decay and proximity to land are still unknown. Discuss.