WxWatcher007

Hopefully the rubber band snaps back soon. Not holding my breath.

It would have been nice to see a quick spin up, but that’s just not the basin environment we have. Whatever develops here and elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic is going to go through a prolonged and ugly process. The further south and west a disturbance is, away from dry/stable air and shear by incessant wave breaking induced shear, will have better odds. Problem is a wave has to avoid being suffocated by dry air or run through the wood chipper by shear before getting to the fabled Goldilocks zone.

Residents hearing the sound of a boat sloshing through the flood, looking out the window watching Phil sail by saying “Now that’s a lot of worter”

I had .03” in that one.

Too much rain?

They’re all different, but yeah.

I’ve got some WOR folks very upset with today’s outcome.

1.30” here at home. High rain rate of 2.6”/hr. I guess I got lucky

The damn gutter had a clog. Water was flowing over the gutter and into the window. No major damage thankfully.

Wife calls me during a meeting to let me know the living room in my new house took on water. Christ.

Pouring here in Hartford. It’s beautiful.

Yeah this should be an interesting one to track. It has potential, but it’s heavily dependent on an environment we’re not quite sure about yet.

Radar looks solid for central and eastern CT.

Seems a little early for an invest, but I guess we get extra data. SHIPS has a pretty hostile environment ahead, consistent with my thought (and operational guidance) that this doesn’t develop until it reaches 60W at least.

Nice. Good luck!

We don’t do patience well around here lol

College?

There may be some serious melts if this underperforms

I'm not on board for the widespread 1.5-2", but I think anything less than .50" imby would be a fail. My guess is I'll end up somewhere around .75 for the two days.

We don't spike yet. Still time for a fail. Got my fingers crossed for this one. It looks good here.

Currently, I am watching four areas over the next ten days. Not all will develop, but they seem worth a casual eye. 1. Current Atlantic Lemon This lead wave crossed into the Atlantic this weekend, and while it isn't terribly active convectively, it has a nice moisture envelope that could serve it well as it plows through a SAL plume in the central Atlantic. Any development of this one IMO would happen after about 60W, the Antilles vicinity. The guidance has a weak signal for development, in large part because of the uncertainty of the environment in the western Atlantic. 2. Follow up Atlantic Wave A second robust wave is expected to leave the African coast in 5-7 days and at least right now, it looks like it'll have a lot going for it with regard to environment. First, it's likely to come off the coast further south, into a better moisture and SST environment. Second, it'll be trailing the first wave closely enough where SAL shouldn't (famous last words) be as much of an issue. Third, it'll be coming off as the MJO amplifies and CCKW passes, which should enhance convection. This one has potential to be a long tracker, but it's just potential for now. 3. Caribbean/Gulf Wave There's a light but consistent signal on the ensembles that a wave in the Caribbean will traverse into either the Gulf or BOC next weekend. 4. Offshore East Coast Low This one wouldn't be a threat to land based on current guidance, but there's a consistent signal on the Euro/GFS operational guidance that a wave of low pressure develops either off the East Coast or in the Central Atlantic the last few days of August before heading further out to sea and intensifying.

The guidance that tried to develop this quickly has obviously backed off, but I think this one is a legitimate candidate to develop past 60W for a couple reasons. First, it's moving through the basin at a time when we see a favorable MJO and CCKW passage. That raises the odds that when it does find a more favorable environment it is able to fire convection and organize. Second, unlike the other waves thus far, this one has a large moisture envelope. CIMSS has some wonderful tropical products, and one of them tracks PW. While the wave is too broad and too close to the SAL to develop now, it may be able to start its sputtering engine when it is clear of the stable layer. The caveat is that something so broad can take so long to tighten that it runs right through its development window without TC genesis. Time sensitive loop You actually see this fairly consistently on the operational guidance--showing the wave near the Antilles in about a week and still somewhat coherent. It's enough to make development a coin flip but it's a marginal shot at this range absent better information on what shear will look like. I actually like this wave because of what it does for the follow up one. That has a relatively high level of support among ensembles for MDR development because it should be coming in further south into an even more favorable environment as currently modeled. We'll see what happens but I'd actually be shocked if one of those two waves didn't develop.

It’s really interesting how with the exception of the EPAC, cyclone activity has been practically nonexistent.

It was a very nice call, and a good win for the models. The game was over as soon as recon finished the first leg of its initial flight. It was nowhere close and this morning did not get it done. Edit: although it would have been nice to break the name drought, I still love these homebrew scenarios regardless of result because I think they’re all great opportunities to learn and better recognize legitimate TC genesis windows.