WxWatcher007

Hmm… I think 91L will get a name first. It has strong convection and what should be a tightening center. I’m worried it’ll sputter on dry air though and lose momentum. I think 93L will be our first hurricane.

91L should lol

All I care about now is getting my peak forecast as close to right as possible lol. This would be a good start, with the Euro highlighting more activity through early September.

Looks like the race is on between the two invests this morning.

The race is on in the Atlantic! Maybe it took a little competition from 93L to get 91L in gear, but it has a strengthening mid level center and deep convection despite nearby dry air that should allow further organization. Place your bets! Who will be the first NS? Who will be the first hurricane? 91L? Or 93L?

The low in the central Atlantic has been designated Invest 93L.

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure has formed along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system drifts generally eastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

I love this one. Models have coalesced around tropical genesis along a decaying boundary in the north central Atlantic. Still has work to do, but with a favorable environment, this should develop. I think this beats 91L to a name.

Let's do a quick look around the tropics this morning, as we are poised to end August with no named storms for the first time in over 20 years. 1. North Central Atlantic Low This one may have disappeared on the guidance for a while, with a number of false starts on the models about what would develop in the north central Atlantic, but with a stalled boundary, we finally had a mechanism for what is likely to be tropical genesis. Hard not to get a chuckle this morning as this one stands the best chance of breaking the drought during peak season. This one is worth an invest, and I lead with it because while it still has work to do (it's attached to a now decaying boundary) this one looks primed to develop. The caveat here is that everything has struggled in the Atlantic, but with a pocket of low shear and importantly--a more moist environment, it's likely to pick up a name. Ceiling TBD, but for 2022, this one looks pretty damn good. I think this could become a hurricane, which would be peak 2022. 2. Invest 91L Now we turn to our old and disappointing friend, Invest 91L. It's been trying, but hasn't found a way to organize effectively in large part due to a dry environment around it. This is the MDR in late August, folks! My mocking aside, this does look organized enough to develop into a named storm, and as some of the guidance suggests, it may take a few more days and a different heading to allow for enough favorable conditions to get this one to go. Until then, we watch and wait. This one isn't a threat to land IMO, and probably doesn't even threaten Bermuda. 3. East Atlantic Low This one is looking better this morning, but it's about to run into a buzzsaw! A number of factors will take this seemingly promising wave more northwestward into a quick recurve, which will put it right into more (you guessed it) dry air and cooler SSTs. Not sure it can get a name, but here's hoping for my forecast.

It's trying. That's about all I can say. The deep convection last night has waned, but according to a (training lol) mission from recon it looks like there's at least a weak mid-level center that convection is trying to fire around. This one is really middling along, but it should develop in more favorable conditions, even if it takes a few more days.

I should be able to pick up two NS at least with 91L and the central Atlantic lemon. Very strong consensus for that one now. It may actually beat 91L to the punch if the models are worth anything inside 72h.

.50” of rain in about 15 minutes!

Ripping nicely here.

#1 was killed by dry air. #2 is 91L. #3 was killed by shear and dry air. #4 disappeared for a while but is now back on the models now that there’s a tangible boundary. It’s (more or less) the central Atlantic lemon. #5 was killed by shear and dry air. Just holding my forecasts accountable.

Hey @GaWx what do you know about 1961? That was apparently a big backloaded season.

Probably going to be waiting a while longer for a US threat lol

We've had something like 8 or 9 active to hyperactive years in a row. Without the ridiculous subtropical wave breaking persisting abnormally long into the ASO this year, the general consensus would have most likely been correct. That is it was supposed to be active and even hyperactive. We've also got 8 more weeks to play with. But I wouldn't sweat it. I agree. The wave breaking has been lethal so far this year. If I bust on the forecast it is what it is, but you're right about having more time. I have to imagine that things open up more by the latter half of September and that homebrew season in October will produce. Agree--it's pretty crazy to know that we're really in 2013 (or worse) territory looking at the basin. I think the lack of activity in the western Atlantic is a function of waves being annihilated before even getting that far. Usually we have at least a couple trackable waves that get to the western end. The Caribbean one for example looked relatively good before running into the wood chipper. This season just ain't it right now. That said, things can change as climo shifts westward and you don't need those waves to be the seedlings.

Oh it's gone. Bermuda threat, if that.

A potential effect of the monsoonal depression persisting over the same location for so long is that the elongated surface gyre with multiple MCSs is likely cooling SSTs a degree or two to that central and significant location of the MDR. Though 91L may eventually go on to organize into a TC and move on into the Western or Northwestern Atlantic basin, such a long duration broad convectively active gyre may leave a large area of sub 28° SSTs for systems that traverse that locale down the road. Though it's still warm early September in the tropics so that should rebound some. My forecast is in trouble. The basin is a disaster. I’m going to need late September and October to produce. Rough season for this tropical weenie.

Good convective bursts continue with 91L, but it's easily apparent that it's still a disorganized mess.

For whatever it’s worth, not a whole hell of a lot at this stage probably, there’s some deep and fairly persistent convection over the southern lobe of the elongated low. This is where recon found a semblance of a mid-level feature earlier. Not sure what’s happening under the hood but if it doesn’t get gutted by dry air it could help with organization by persisting overnight. Further south may be better for quicker development odds but dry air is everywhere. Crazy.

Really loving these historical look backs. Thanks.

What I find most interesting is that virtually all the basins have been extraordinarily quiet or had long stretches of quiet.

Nice. I’m dipping my toe in the water. It’s great to do something different and take on a new challenge.