WxWatcher007

Recon has descended. Will be in the Invest soon and we'll get a much better sense of the structure.

It’d be wild for all the guidance to miss TC genesis for two waves, at such a short range, simultaneously! I’m still skeptical since it’s running head first into the driest and most stable part of the MDR, but we’ll see.

Euro follows the GFS this run lol.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form later today, tonight, or on Saturday while the system moves northwestward across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the system. Interests along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Beven

From your lips to God’s ears.

It has been awful. I’m with you by the way that there’s a memorable TC somewhere in the US this year, even if the season as a whole underperforms.

Recon is in the air and en route to Invest 99L.

That ridge building over the top with a trough coming in behind would make folks sweat no doubt about it.

Just playing around with the run…it looks like the trough to the north isn’t enough to kick it OTS. Ridge rebuilding in the Midwest. No ridge over the top or GL cutoff though so no direct line toward the US.

This is the lead wave? I lost track. It’s so odd that it plows it right into the heart of the dry air lol. I will say, it’s a good sign for TC genesis generally to see the MDR with convective activity.

What is the GFS trying to do out in the MDR???

Still need to see what recon finds, but I said it yesterday—the convective cycles were really nice with this one over a few days and this morning would be important for TC chances. It checked the box. Now, it’ll need to tighten up and continue its convection through the downward convective diurnal phase. Still a little early but it looks like the shear has relaxed a little on visible. It wasn’t really impacting the apparent MLC though.

What a difference a year makes.

The shear is certainly nearby at first light, but I don’t think it’s having a significant impact yet looking at visible imagery. Not sure if recon still plans to fly this morning.

I’ll take that as a don’t get your hopes up lol. Thanks.

Unrelated to the two posts above lol but question for the northerners: How bad does the wx have to be at Mount Washington to close the auto road or cog? If a wind weenie wanted to catch hurricane force winds would the summit be open to said weenie?

Very close. I love this stuff.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a tropical wave located over southeastern Mexico that is expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow morning. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday or Saturday. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Flynn/Papin

As expected, convection is waning this evening, but it reveals a robust (albeit elongated) mid-level center. This center is moving westward which isn't ideal for time over water, but it should be in the BOC in a matter of hours. From there, we'll see if there's a convective response.

It doesn't but it has the wave train going by around this time next week. Just need the instability to build out there.

Setting aside the models for a minute, the environment looks decently favorable for a quick spin up by my eye. Emphasis on quick, as this will be inland by late Saturday night by current projections. First, the Bay of Campeche usually delivers in aiding the spin of a developing low due to its concave topography. While not a determining factor in tropical cyclone genesis, for something that's on the fence, sufficient time in the BOC can help focus spin. That's necessary here, as something too broad won't be able to organize sufficiently to become a TC. Sea surface temperatures and OHC are not a concern, as these are some of the warmest waters in the basin. Wind shear doesn't look like too much of a concern either, as an upper low seems to be pulling back as the invest moves into the BOC. If this is too slow to occur, that'd put a lid on significant development. Currently, despite the declining intensity of convective activity over Central America and Mexico, we see a disorganized but fairly impressive mid-level structure for 99L with clear mid level spin and hints of outflow. The two biggest limiting factors are time and proximity to land. As I said at the start of the post, this is a quick one. We saw with 98L that the clock really does tick on development. 99L should be offshore tonight and crossing the NE Mexico border by late Saturday. While proximity to land may be an issue early on for development, this may be an instance where it helps right before "landfall", as a northwest (but ideally a NNW) heading toward the coast on final approach could help tighten a circulation. The models may not be fond of this one, but it has a legitimate chance of development. The key things to watch this evening IMO: 1) Does convective activity near the apparent mid-level center increase once it has crossed into the BOC? 2) Does whatever convective activity allow for a center reformation further east, which would provide more time over water (increasing development odds) and allow for a further north track?

Ask and ye shall receive.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico have become a little better organized since yesterday. This system is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where an area of low pressure could form. After that, additional slow development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Beven

Maybe I've cracked or gone full weenie, but I'm still intrigued by the lemon that's now trekking over Central America and southern Mexico. The wave has done a good job of having persistent convection which peaks during the diurnal cycle. It's not organized, but there's modest vorticity. There is some shear present, and I'm not sure how much remains when it gets to the BOC late tonight/early tomorrow. I really do think if this convective cycle continues this one has a legit chance of development. It may need some help with a low developing further east to buy more time before land interaction. Maybe I'm just wrong for the 14,000th time this season I know everyone likes the potential of the MDR stuff, but homebrew is where it's at for me. Good forecasting test.