WxWatcher007

Low of 49 here this morning. Low of 45 yesterday.

If I can just weenie out for a second, that 00z Euro run was an all timer of a run for NS. I mean my God lol. And yes, to really weenie out--the busted gust product

10:37z so just a few hours ago. There is another new blowup of convection near the center, but you don't really see a nascent core developing yet here or with some of the recon obs on the first pass.

Thanks. I think it's going to be hard for this to miss either trough. The first still looks to turn it northwestward/northward into the weakness between ridges--the weakness is there no matter what, and that D6 trough looks too big to miss. It does look disorganized currently per recon and microwave imagery, so I do think we'll need to wait to see how Hispaniola impacts it before locking things in.

Yeah I still don’t think this dissipates over Hispaniola so I agree that’s a low probability outcome, and I also agree the second trough gets it late so a straight WNW push into say the SE is unlikely. But the orientation of that trough (progressive vs cutoff) matters for Bermuda and maybe maritime Canada. I’d still place odds at 75% no land impacts post Antilles right now. Still, something to watch as the details of the steering pattern are still being sorted out and we haven’t seen how disruptive an Hispaniola hit will be.

I’m not really sure what to think of it honestly. I still strongly lean toward a GFS non continental US outcome, but the overnight guidance had some substantive upper level changes with the kicker trough IMO. Maybe it’s a hiccup run, but it’s likely an indication that it’s still too early for any locked in solutions post Antilles—another landfall or harmlessly OTS. We probably need to see what this looks like after the Greater Antilles, and I’m very concerned about the slowdown and flooding risk.

Hmm. I’d like others to chime in, but it seems the overnight operational guidance turned that trough from a progressive kicker to something that cuts off. It could be a hiccup suite like the ones that drove this into land a few days ago, but if that becomes a trend, it’s a substantial shift even if it’s just for maritime Canada. It happens at different times on the guidance which results in radically different outcomes between the Euro/CMC and GFS, but it’s there. I didn’t expect that. The Euro in particular has been stubbornly holding onto this one. Not really changing my odds from yesterday, but it’s interesting.

At least one of us is close to the action

Oh yeah, flood risk would be top of mind. If there's any risk there it's an easy call to go. Even big wind can be manageable in a sound structure.

Yeah it’s close. Unless you had the stomach (no disrespect) to stay and let the chase come to you and live with the consequences, I’d probably prepare to leave by Sunday. You have to consider if you could deal with potentially being stuck at least a few days after a hurricane, with power out and scarce supplies.

18z Euro is a good bit stronger than 12z through the end of the run, 90 hours. Track is similar to 12z and goes through the eastern part of Hispaniola.

It looks like the USVI/PR and Haiti/DR are in for a rough ride. Hopefully the rainfall threat doesn’t materialize down there.

When were you originally scheduled to leave?

No matter the intensity, it’s unlikely to miss the second trough. That has trended stronger and keeps the ridge from building over the top.

Tropical has produced more than winter the last few years around here.

Even the western outlier Canadian, which still puts Fiona near the Bahamas has a clear recurve steering pattern that kicks it out well offshore.

It’s 2nd and 38 and the punter is warming up.

This modeled steering pattern ain’t it. Too many troughs. Ridges out of place. Bleh.

I knew that first comment would set things off

I think any tugs away from the coast greatly reduces the odds of impact even if the trough is missed. There’s another one right after it, and it doesn’t cut off. We’d be in business if it did but those are reserved for April lol.

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022 Convective activity is occurring much closer to the low-level center of Fiona this morning, suggesting that the deep-layer westerly shear has decreased a bit. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been flying through Fiona during the past several hours, and winds as high as 57 kt were reported about 2500 ft above the surface, along with SFMR winds slightly higher than 45 kt. The initial intensity remains 45 kt for now, but Fiona could easily attain 50 kt soon if the deep convection remains close to the center. After losing latitude most of the day yesterday and overnight, Fiona has started moving north of due west, with an initial motion of 275/12 kt. A north-of-due-west motion with some slowing of the forward speed is expected through early Sunday, with Fiona steered across the Leeward Islands and the far northeastern Caribbean Sea by subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic. Fiona then reaches the western extent of the ridge just beyond 48 hours, and it is expected to move more slowly and turn northwestward across Hispaniola in 3-4 days, and then be near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas in about 5 days. The spread among the deterministic track models and the ensembles has decreased since yesterday, and there's therefore a little bit more confidence in the NHC track prediction. In addition, there has not been much shift in the guidance since the previous forecast cycle, and the updated NHC forecast lies very close to the previous prediction, and in the middle of the guidance envelope close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Fiona is located near a tight gradient of deep-layer shear, and it's possible that its south-of-due-west motion since yesterday brought it into a lighter-shear environment for the convection to build back closer to the center. Model guidance indicates that the shear is likely to remain moderate for much of the forecast period, but at the same time, upper-level divergence and mid-level moisture are forecast to increase. Coupled with the expected decrease in forward speed, these factors could allow Fiona's structure to become more vertically stacked over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, and gradual strengthening is still anticipated during the next 3 days. Based on this forecast, Fiona could be very near hurricane strength as it approaches the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. The terrain of Hispaniola is likely to disrupt Fiona's circulation, but the global models suggest that Fiona shouldn't have much trouble reorganizing itself once over the far southwestern Atlantic, and the NHC forecast now calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane by the end of the 5-day forecast period. This prediction is slightly below the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the Leeward Islands within the warning area starting this afternoon, and will spread westward across the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday and Puerto Rico late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Dominica tonight and in the British Virgin Islands on Saturday. 2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands by this evening, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic Sunday, and the Turks and Caicos Monday night or Tuesday. This rainfall may produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 3. Fiona is expected to strengthen gradually over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, and it could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the southern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and early Monday. Watches could be required for portions of the Dominican Republic later today. 4. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving across Hispaniola early next week, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 16.0N 59.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.2N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.6N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 17.0N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 17.3N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 17.8N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 18.5N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...S COAST OF DOM. REP. 96H 20/1200Z 20.5N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 21/1200Z 22.5N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tropical is my thing and all I need is something reasonably chaseable, so I’m interested in this one. Personal interest aside, I agree that regardless of what models may show, the window for significant direct impacts in the US is not open that much. We’re still fairly far out and without much upper level recon data near the storm, but that’s where we are. I’d probably put the odds of a US hit, including an OBX scrape, at ~25% currently.

Somewhere @WinterWxLuvr is pulling out his knife and is ready to cut anyone in the region wishing for rain.

Sharing this one here too. We’ll see if this is a brief deviation or something models will need to adjust to. There are some great products at this site btw.

Man there are some good products out there. I forgot about this one.