WxWatcher007

Looks like Danielle is off and running again.

Euro was awful early but keep in mind that climo shifts the favored development areas out of the MDR later in the peak period—late September into October. Could we continue to misfire through the rest of the season? Absolutely. But I think it’s a little early to pull the plug on the entire basin. Not saying you are. I have pulled the plug on the tropical Atlantic part of the MDR. I don’t care what it does at this point. My forecast called for activity in early September followed by a lull and more activity late September into October. More backloaded by necessity LOL.

Was a little surprised by the spread in the EPS overnight.

Another one! Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (2)Hurricanes: 6 (1)Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)

Give me a wide right hurricane. Took it long enough to pull itself together.

Not the best organization, but it looks like a TS to me.

Feeling good seeing 91L try to get a name. I feel like if I can get two hurricanes out of this period I’m in decent shape with my forecast.

91L is making a run to be our next named storm. Vortex message has SFMR at 38kts with a max FL wind of 44kts. Likely a minimal TS with that report—though again, the NHC may stay conservative here and wait until 11 to see if this persists.

I was too young. That was ‘96 right? I remember Bonnie as my first heartbreaker and it never had a chance up here lol.

We just suck this year smh. It is what it is.

Recon confirming that this is now extremely close to being a depression if not already one. Latest center fix puts it closer to the deeper convection. Still fragile, but likely already a TC imo. NHC wants to see this persist per the special discussion and I don’t blame them. Organizational attempts have collapsed numerous times thus far.

Nothing impressive at the surface, but recon is finding higher FL winds.

It took forever, but there’s enough for recon to do a center fix. This one is on the cusp of becoming a depression.

Based on visible imagery, and the latest set of recon observations, it looks like there is a very weak low level center. That said, this still looks very disorganized and maybe not quite worthy of a designation yet. edit: I’m probably too generous. Let’s call it a low level swirl

It’s still messy, but the 12z Euro tries to organize this into what I’m guessing is a depression this weekend. Not sure if it’ll pull the plug later in the model run though.

Recon en route again to see if there’s any organization.

Well keep in mind that climo shifts tropical genesis to the Gulf and western Caribbean too later in September and especially October. I think we know that reaching normal ACE or above active named storms will be a struggle given the hostile environment basin wide, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the later part of the season is destined to be dead too. Especially if AWB relaxes. It’s just something we’ll have to watch unfold.

On the board! Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (1) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)

On the board! Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (1) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)

I agree. It has tried and failed, numerous times, to organize. It looks like it’s trying again this morning so we’ll see what recon finds later.

51.6 this morning.

Very pleasant night here. Hoping I can get into the 40s tonight.

I think the modeled venting could compensate for lower end SSTs, but we’ll see. I think a low end 3 would be the max for this but it’s just fun to finally watch something pop in this basin.