WxWatcher007

It has been years since I've watched a whole regular season MLB game. Playoffs are fun though.

This is an interesting westward jog, but I still think it’s highly unlikely this gets disrupted enough to miss the trough altogether. It’s sheared and about to make a longer trip over land, but it’s still a vertically deep storm.

1-12 in pick ‘em after winning week 1. Absolutely unbelievable.

Unfortunately the slow and steady angle of approach is pretty much a worst case scenario from a flooding perspective. The core has only clipped the higher terrain, it is not weakening. But it's driving the southerly feed of moisture off the Carribean right over the island, with orographic enhancement. Maria was horrible and I don't want to say Fiona will eclipse that in impacts. But it may outperform even Georges from a flooding event. This is looking really bad. Yeah, this is about the worst case rainfall scenario for PR. The videos coming out are already really bad.

It’s gone. You’d need to see a massive shift in the steering pattern to make this a continental US threat. @Hazey and Nick should be watching though. The globals have a mean low up there next weekend. For now.

It looks like interaction with PR didn’t slow down organization much at all. I hope the DR is ready for this one.

Atlantic Canada will need to watch this too as the guidance tries edging this more northward as it interacts with the midweek trough.

My lord these late game collapses have me with my worst pick ‘em early afternoon ever.

Atlantic Canada still very much in it, though it’d likely be going extratropical by then.

You look at that radar and IR and you just know there’s going to be catastrophic flooding in PR. Already seeing high end river flood reports.

Hurricane Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 335 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022 ...FIONA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO... NWS Doppler radar observations indicate that the center of Hurricane Fiona has made landfall along the extreme southwestern coast of Puerto Rico near Punta Tocon at 320 PM AST...1920 UTC. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 85 mph (140 km/h). SUMMARY OF 320 PM AST...1920 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 67.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF MAYAGUEZ PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch/Berg

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (3)Hurricanes: 6 (3)Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)

The last three named storms have become hurricanes.

It’s extremely close to a hurricane if it isn’t there already.

70mph/991mb at 8am. Recon showing a gradually organizing system.

Starting to see a few lightning signatures on radar with a ribbon of higher velocities on the northern side as well.

Don’t know why RadarScope comes up so blurry here, but definitely some significant tightening of the center despite the appearance on IR in the last few hours. No response by the winds yet. It still needs to wrap around fully and consistently.

Maybe it is a little more interesting up your way. There have been a few good ones in NS and NL in recent years.

I think it’ll be a hurricane, but that center reformation has me spooked that I’d miss the center. One thing that I think I learned from Josh is island roulette is a dangerous game. If I land in PR tonight and things shift to a landfall in DR or the USVI there’s nothing I can do.

I have a hotel and plane ticket to PR in my cart right now and I’m not sure if I want to pull the trigger on it.

Another case of the IR being deceiving. It’s clearly in flux right now structurally. I do think the center trying to vertically align is a sign that we have higher odds of modest intensification before PR. Interesting that 30 kt RI odds are that high. That’s concerning. Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022 Fiona is going through some structural changes this morning. From a zoomed-out view on satellite imagery, Fiona appears better organized compared to previous days, with the convective envelope becoming more symmetric, and upper-level outflow expanding around most of the storm. However, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the central part of the circulation still lacks some vertical coherency. From the best we can tell from the aircraft data, the low-level center appears to be re-forming farther east near a recent burst of deep convection. The central pressure may have risen a bit during this re-organization process, but maximum winds are still estimated to be 50 kt. With the center re-formation, the initial motion has become more uncertain, although Fiona has definitely slowed down from yesterday. The longer-term average motion is 275/7 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Fiona expected to gradually recurve around the western extent of the western Atlantic subtropical ridge through the 5-day forecast period. The big change, however, is that the adjusted initial position due to the center re-formation has tugged all of the guidance eastward on this cycle. The new NHC forecast is also east of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids, now showing a track near or over the western part of Puerto Rico in about 36 hours. The caveat to this forecast is that additional center re-formations could cause models to shift again, and therefore there's quite a bit of uncertainty in the short-term track forecast. Especially in cases like this, users are reminded to not focus solely on the track forecast itself, and to account for potential shifts in the track east or west. The upper-level environment over Fiona has improved, and deep-layer shear is expected to be light to moderate for the next several days. In fact, along with a favorable thermodynamic environment, the Rapid Intensification Indices have increased, and now show a 1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly Fiona can take advantage of these favorable conditions given its current structure. But either way, intensification is anticipated, and Fiona is likely to be near or at hurricane strength while it moves near Puerto Rico on Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous prediction, but it still lies below the intensity consensus aids. If Fiona gets better organized today, then it's possible that additional increases to the intensity forecast will be forthcoming later today. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto Rico Sunday and Sunday night, and are possible across the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands today and will spread westward to the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later today, and to Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions will reach the Dominican Republic by Sunday night. 2. Heavy rains from Fiona will spread west to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, the Dominican Republic Sunday, and the Turks and Caicos Monday night. This rainfall is likely to produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly in Puerto Rico. 3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen while moving near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through Monday, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.3N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.6N 64.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 17.3N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 18.2N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO 48H 19/1200Z 19.2N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 20.4N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 21.6N 70.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 23.9N 70.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 27.6N 69.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Yeah, it’s not an Ida lol but damn good for that latitude. Anyway, it’ll be in Greenland next run.

What a weenie run that was lol. Still favor much further east though. We’ll see what the 12z suite shows.