WxWatcher007

Very close. I love this stuff.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a tropical wave located over southeastern Mexico that is expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow morning. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday or Saturday. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Flynn/Papin

As expected, convection is waning this evening, but it reveals a robust (albeit elongated) mid-level center. This center is moving westward which isn't ideal for time over water, but it should be in the BOC in a matter of hours. From there, we'll see if there's a convective response.

It doesn't but it has the wave train going by around this time next week. Just need the instability to build out there.

Setting aside the models for a minute, the environment looks decently favorable for a quick spin up by my eye. Emphasis on quick, as this will be inland by late Saturday night by current projections. First, the Bay of Campeche usually delivers in aiding the spin of a developing low due to its concave topography. While not a determining factor in tropical cyclone genesis, for something that's on the fence, sufficient time in the BOC can help focus spin. That's necessary here, as something too broad won't be able to organize sufficiently to become a TC. Sea surface temperatures and OHC are not a concern, as these are some of the warmest waters in the basin. Wind shear doesn't look like too much of a concern either, as an upper low seems to be pulling back as the invest moves into the BOC. If this is too slow to occur, that'd put a lid on significant development. Currently, despite the declining intensity of convective activity over Central America and Mexico, we see a disorganized but fairly impressive mid-level structure for 99L with clear mid level spin and hints of outflow. The two biggest limiting factors are time and proximity to land. As I said at the start of the post, this is a quick one. We saw with 98L that the clock really does tick on development. 99L should be offshore tonight and crossing the NE Mexico border by late Saturday. While proximity to land may be an issue early on for development, this may be an instance where it helps right before "landfall", as a northwest (but ideally a NNW) heading toward the coast on final approach could help tighten a circulation. The models may not be fond of this one, but it has a legitimate chance of development. The key things to watch this evening IMO: 1) Does convective activity near the apparent mid-level center increase once it has crossed into the BOC? 2) Does whatever convective activity allow for a center reformation further east, which would provide more time over water (increasing development odds) and allow for a further north track?

Ask and ye shall receive.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico have become a little better organized since yesterday. This system is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where an area of low pressure could form. After that, additional slow development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Beven

Maybe I've cracked or gone full weenie, but I'm still intrigued by the lemon that's now trekking over Central America and southern Mexico. The wave has done a good job of having persistent convection which peaks during the diurnal cycle. It's not organized, but there's modest vorticity. There is some shear present, and I'm not sure how much remains when it gets to the BOC late tonight/early tomorrow. I really do think if this convective cycle continues this one has a legit chance of development. It may need some help with a low developing further east to buy more time before land interaction. Maybe I'm just wrong for the 14,000th time this season I know everyone likes the potential of the MDR stuff, but homebrew is where it's at for me. Good forecasting test.

Winter 2013-14 may be my favorite winter, and I spent it in DC. Basically wall to wall winter from Jan 1 through March.

I went back to 2017 to plot OHC at this time in the basin.

This far away from any land impacts, it’s all in good fun to try to figure out which will develop. I don’t think I’d say 100% won’t develop, but I’m in the camp of it taking another wave or two before the tropical Atlantic opens up. I think the western Atlantic will have had a system or two develop by then.

There’s a guy out here mowing

Hard to buy right now when the tropical Atlantic remains dry and stable. It’ll change, but like I said the other day you may need some sacrificial waves first.

Skipped right over me too. Saw this coming from a mile away.

I’m just saying buyer beware. I love the weenie stuff too but there is such a thing as too much drugs.

That’s just weenie fodder. Even if the GFS consistently showed that, it’s so far away that you couldn’t consider it a serious signal absent multi-guidance ensemble support.

We’re getting there. Hyperactive looks off the table but solidly above average looks feasible as long as we can get some instability in the tropical MDR.

One of the benchmark floods

It’s still disorganized obviously, but that wave in the western Caribbean has held convection together nicely. The only things holding it back are land interaction and some shear to the north. We’ll see how it looks after the Yucatán, but this is as good a candidate as any for homebrew development. Wherever a center forms would be critical to TC genesis chances and eventual track.

Wet ground! .03”

Summer of bore continues.

Active look again today on the operational and ensemble guidance, and it’s not stuck at the end of the runs. Growing confidence the lid is primed to come off as early as this weekend starting with the BOC disturbance.

Ensembles continue to like TC genesis in the BOC in a few days.

The only way to do it lol