WxWatcher007

Yep, that haze over the coastline is SAL. As bad as it is though, it was much worse just a few weeks ago. July 31 Today It just…takes time.

I think I went something like 21/10/5. It’ll be hard to get 18 more NS, but the other two are doable. Given the western Atlantic. Need October to make up for a dead first 1/3 - 2/3 of August though.

I don’t remember this, but it looks beautiful.

We’re better off than we were two weeks ago, but it’s still objectively ugly, especially in the eastern and central Atlantic as a result of stability and mid level dry air more than anything. It’s a false start. We need to be patient and see if this advertised pattern change is realized. If it’s not, we’re probably cooked for anything well above normal. I think hyperactive is off the table.

Basin still sucks right now.

It’s become a broken record at this point, but the Atlantic is just too hostile right now.

Today was very impressive here. High of 98.5 and the humidity was about as high end as you can get around here.

I wouldn’t blame ‘em. I’ve been outside all morning and I usually like testing my physical limits of heat and cold—it’s rough for me.

This is real heat out here. Contractor had to stop work the house was so hot. VP2 says it feels like 110 outside lol

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more limited associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. While some gradual development of this system is possible over the next couple of days, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Papin

Looking pretty disorganized this morning.

Amazing how everything that spins in the PAC is blowing up. Seven hurricanes out there so far lol.

Just a couple sprinkles where I was. I guess I’ll have to take what I can get lol.

Stein did me dirty today. That’s a nice line that developed just a few miles south of me.

Much different depiction at 12z but I’ll tell ya, I think this is a more likely long tracker to watch if it remains weak early and fails to gain latitude while that trough lifts out next week. Too strong too soon and Early, but just a thought that could be wrong lol.

A generally conducive environment, as the NHC said, but not a slam dunk right now if this muddles its way to the central Atlantic.

It woke me up, but I know that's one for the weenie folder and not the analysis folder.

I'll see myself out now.

Tropical folks probably shouldn't post here That said, even without a hurricane (Gloria '85/Bob '91) we've been on a relative heater with impactful tropical. Setting aside last season (post-tropical Ida and MEHenri), we've had Isaias '20, Sandy '12, and Irene '11. That's not bad for a region with some of the longest tropical return times in the US.

We have an invest with the strong tropical wave that left the coast of Africa this weekend. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde islands is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form around the middle to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Papin The GFS is most aggressive with development so far, while the other operational guidance have nothing noteworthy and a modest ensemble signal for development. As is usually the case with these early systems, there's high uncertainty 10 days out let alone 5. That means the long range weenie or totally dead runs are pretty meaningless. It is convectively active, but we'll need to see if there's any meaningful organization taking place in the next few days.

I knew the weenies would come out At least the GFS finally threw some chum in the water for us.

Let’s save the annual morality debate until there’s actually a storm please.

Same here. Brutal.