fountainguy97

Very interestingly I just pulled my first batch of analogs for the winter and low and behold they fall right in line with you thoughts outlined above. I just looking for similar ENSO progressions and pulled these years. I omitted a few that had strong ninos/ninas but left a few that actually hovered neutral but dipped back into Nino. Analogs: 92-93, 95-96, 03-04, 05-06, 10-11, 12-13 Purple zones are similar to 2020. Brown designates ENSO which mostly correspond to the way 2020 is evolving (some lag by a few months) Red is a zone that stands apart of the 2020 map. The older maps are more coarse so who knows how similar they truly are. Anyway, in general these years all share some very similar global SST patterns. I'm just throwing these in here. This is how those analogs evolved vs how we are evolving so far. PDO Analog Comparison QBO analog Comparison PNA Analog Comparison Hurricane Activity Comparison I found this extremely interesting. 5 of the 6 analogs were hyperactivte cane seasons. While things are not set in stone it is pretty likely that this year comes out very active as well. Analog US temps/precip in next post

I wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM. Check this error.

Nice trend for increased CAD. Pretty large trend to be so close.

There I fixed your post. What a sad debate. You would certainly fail in a debate class. Keep up the wonderful and informative posts.