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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    A very nice kind of similar theme is starting to develop now that we are inside 24 hrs lol. still a lot of variation between some models but we are getting there.
  2. fountainguy97
    so the HRRR ticked north which its not even in its wheelhouse yet. 12km NAM came in really bullish and the 3km is now much less bullish haha I feel like all this flipping around is just indicative of the mesoscale nature of this one. We may never get a uniform solution across models until right at game time tonight. It really feels like we are tracking individual supercells on the long range hrrr and 3km nam with how much they are jumping haha.
  3. fountainguy97
    12z 12km nam looks much better. coming in line with its high res counter part. 12km actually buries the Eastern Valley
  4. fountainguy97
    Yep Hrrr stepped toward other models. It’s still it’s long range too. Usually not reliable until 12-14hrs out or so
  5. fountainguy97
    Yeah the 3km 06z is a beautiful example of this. Looks like a bowling ball of heavy precip just rotating over portions of Eastern and NE TN. Most models do have that and the EURO has consistently shown it. hopefully we can get the hrrr back on board
  6. fountainguy97
    Looks very similar to 3km NAM. Concerned about the hrrr coming in so snowless for East TN but it’s prone to random runs like that. I think at 12z this morning we should get better model agreement.
  7. fountainguy97
    For what its worth the 3km and RAP are super close together. Just need the RGEM to hop on board and we have the trifecta of high res models on our side. The RGEM isn't my favorite model. But it does do well at times.
  8. fountainguy97
    this 12km run lol 9 inches of snow in 6 hrs in southern Unicoi
  9. fountainguy97
    Almost always. Yes. Most globals have convective feedback issues which can stunt precip growth away from the center of a storm system. Iike @Daniel Boone said it’s time for high res models to take the lead. But I find it encouraging to see euro coming in beefy for the mountains.
  10. fountainguy97
    i feel like you are right. Mostly because globals often struggle with the mesoscale nature of convection. And that explains why the GFS family struggles and the EURO does a tad better. EURO imo has always been the better ULL model. And speaking of. 12z euro is also starting to pick up an enhanced band of convection. although not as expansive north as high res models. Nice to see EURO still delivering significant snowfall to the Eastern areas and backing up the high res amounts. This to me validates those beefier high res runs of the RAP and 12km NAM.
  11. fountainguy97
    ULL driven events like this are the absolute worst type of winter event. haha this thing will be "trending" one way or the other up to the last minute most likely. I have to say I'm pretty optimistic with 12km nam, RGEM, RAP and the 3km all showing enhacned banding features. just a matter of where they end up. Its possible a band of 2" hr rates swings through most of NE TN. and wherever it pivots could get slammed.
  12. fountainguy97
    The 15z RAP is just absolutely absurd. Dumping wet paste like crazy. We know it wont verify but wow check it out.
  13. fountainguy97
    Hr 54 looks very euro-esque
  14. fountainguy97
    Yeah I didn’t follow it hardcore because I was in Raleigh and a little grumpy about missing it hahaha but I remember the gfs being terrible. Hoping we do get the Euro camp to verify.
  15. fountainguy97
    The difference between the 18z GFS and EURO for NE TN is just a joke. Gfs has no snow while euro has a legit major winter storm. Onset is inside 3 days....
  16. fountainguy97
    amazing rates right now. Looks to last a good while too. What a surprising storm. Video below. Click Here!
  17. fountainguy97
    33.4 and crashing. Ripping tiny flakes.
  18. fountainguy97
    Half way into the valley in Erwin, TN (Unicoi county). 2000ft.
  19. fountainguy97
    On the cusp here. 36 surface with a tiny warm layer left. Sky across the valley is heavy and white with peaks above 3k in the clouds. Feels like snow Upstream radar is looking so good. I am pumped.
  20. fountainguy97
    Yeah I’ve always thought the NaM had a wet bias but they did upgrade it last year. It’s consistently been the driest with backside energy with all models significantly wetter. Will be an interesting system to watch.
  21. fountainguy97
    Am I dreaming?? NAM and HRW families keep upping snowfall. And my high today was a solid 8 below modeled. someone pinch me.
  22. fountainguy97
    Models slowly upping my snowfall toward 3-4 inches. Still wary of them as it’s tough to nail down the elevation influence but man this looks promising. Cautiously optimistic. Although I’ve been burned on NW flow before.
  23. fountainguy97
    Our system is well on its way this morning! everything looks right on track using the upper air WV loops. Going to be a beautiful phase later during this storms life. the darker and light yellow dry air trough over the Dakotas is our northern stream energy. hoping for 1-2 inches here at 2000ft in Erwin! Small potential to bust higher than that I think in this setup.
  24. fountainguy97
    Hope this look holds! Of course it’s the LONG range NAM and loves to over amp.
  25. fountainguy97
    Hey all. Interesting storm. Tons of small variables can really enhance or suppress our backside moisture. Hoping to squeeze out an inch or two here! Waiting to see what high res models show over the next day. Very fascinating storm evolution. 3km has a legit line of broken cells and then snow a few hrs later.. going to be a wild few days.
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