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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    33.4 and crashing. Ripping tiny flakes.
  2. fountainguy97
    Half way into the valley in Erwin, TN (Unicoi county). 2000ft.
  3. fountainguy97
    On the cusp here. 36 surface with a tiny warm layer left. Sky across the valley is heavy and white with peaks above 3k in the clouds. Feels like snow Upstream radar is looking so good. I am pumped.
  4. fountainguy97
    Yeah I’ve always thought the NaM had a wet bias but they did upgrade it last year. It’s consistently been the driest with backside energy with all models significantly wetter. Will be an interesting system to watch.
  5. fountainguy97
    Am I dreaming?? NAM and HRW families keep upping snowfall. And my high today was a solid 8 below modeled. someone pinch me.
  6. fountainguy97
    Models slowly upping my snowfall toward 3-4 inches. Still wary of them as it’s tough to nail down the elevation influence but man this looks promising. Cautiously optimistic. Although I’ve been burned on NW flow before.
  7. fountainguy97
    Our system is well on its way this morning! everything looks right on track using the upper air WV loops. Going to be a beautiful phase later during this storms life. the darker and light yellow dry air trough over the Dakotas is our northern stream energy. hoping for 1-2 inches here at 2000ft in Erwin! Small potential to bust higher than that I think in this setup.
  8. fountainguy97
    Hope this look holds! Of course it’s the LONG range NAM and loves to over amp.
  9. fountainguy97
    Hey all. Interesting storm. Tons of small variables can really enhance or suppress our backside moisture. Hoping to squeeze out an inch or two here! Waiting to see what high res models show over the next day. Very fascinating storm evolution. 3km has a legit line of broken cells and then snow a few hrs later.. going to be a wild few days.
  10. fountainguy97
    Here are the analog Temps! Very similar to Carver's thoughts above! The Precip is dry BUT its a dry December, wet January, dry February. Here are the 3 months combined. Here is the wet January Anyway, I thought I'd just throw these out here I'm cautiously optimistic about this winter. Not so much because of a signal for massive cold but more of the chance we have to buck the recent winter patterns we have been stuck in. A weak nina or cool neutral can actually end up very favorable for alot of areas if we have the right setup elsewhere on the globe. PNA is also bucking its recent pattern of - in winter and + in summer (the last THREE winters have averaged a -PNA in DJF then prolonged + in summer). Currently we have seen a nice -PNA this summer. hopefully with some luck that can switch into the fall toward a +PNA through winter.
  11. fountainguy97
    Very interestingly I just pulled my first batch of analogs for the winter and low and behold they fall right in line with you thoughts outlined above. I just looking for similar ENSO progressions and pulled these years. I omitted a few that had strong ninos/ninas but left a few that actually hovered neutral but dipped back into Nino. Analogs: 92-93, 95-96, 03-04, 05-06, 10-11, 12-13 Purple zones are similar to 2020. Brown designates ENSO which mostly correspond to the way 2020 is evolving (some lag by a few months) Red is a zone that stands apart of the 2020 map. The older maps are more coarse so who knows how similar they truly are. Anyway, in general these years all share some very similar global SST patterns. I'm just throwing these in here. This is how those analogs evolved vs how we are evolving so far. PDO Analog Comparison QBO analog Comparison PNA Analog Comparison Hurricane Activity Comparison I found this extremely interesting. 5 of the 6 analogs were hyperactivte cane seasons. While things are not set in stone it is pretty likely that this year comes out very active as well. Analog US temps/precip in next post
  12. fountainguy97
    Got absolutely blasted earlier today. 40dbz on radar. by far the most intense snow squall I’ve ever seen. Was a mix of snow/graupel. Near white out for a few minutes! Definitely a top 1 snow event for me today. enjoy!
  13. fountainguy97
    Wow dumping here under pretty light returns. Was that common for you guys too?
  14. fountainguy97
    Finally. After hours of dry slot. good snow in Unicoi, TN! Let’s see what we can end up with
  15. fountainguy97
    Cold rain here in Unicoi county. COngrats on all seeing snow! Honestly NAM and HRRR have both done poorly with QPF and TEMPS. Watch this loop on HRRR. Temps and precip rates have trended colder and heavier up until hour 1. This has been the case every. single. run today and I fully expect it to continue into the evening and Eastern TN.
  16. fountainguy97
    35. All snow. Normal sized flakes. Already sticking on deck.
  17. fountainguy97
    36.5 temp. Snow mixing in!
  18. fountainguy97
    Just waiting on the surface temps here. Radar and soundings show just the shallow warm nose left here. temp dropping pretty quickly down to 41 now!
  19. fountainguy97
    No way! This is my dad's hometown so I have a lot of family here. Grew up coming here for Christmas. I was here for the December 2010 storm when well over a foot fell! I was sold on weather after that. Yeah Unicoi County is an amazing place for weather. I need to find the best mountain side somewhere around Unicoi/Erwin for snow and buy a house there hahaha Very excited about my first winter in the mountains! And learning an entirely new weather climate.
  20. fountainguy97
    I moved to Erwin, TN back in June! Chasing those first flurries across TN. Its the 3km NAM so probably not going to happen but there is some support from EURO and GFS at least for some mountain changeover. Leaf change in full force here in Eastern TN.
  21. fountainguy97
    I wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM. Check this error.
  22. fountainguy97
    Nice trend for increased CAD. Pretty large trend to be so close.
  23. fountainguy97
    There I fixed your post. What a sad debate. You would certainly fail in a debate class. Keep up the wonderful and informative posts.
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