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Everything posted by fountainguy97
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Pretty surprised. It’s been snowing since about 3am here. Measuring 1.75 all over
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nice squall inbound!
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Moderate now but mostly melted off the ground. Temp up to 31. Must be the sun.
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started here abt an hour ago. sticking to everything even the roads. Ground is frozen solid. Not used to seeing white roads with a dusted yard lol
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Just started here sticking to everything even the roads. Ground is frozen solid
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Temp surprisingly down to 28 already. Let’s see what we can scrape together over the next 12hrs or so. Hrrr has a pretty good second wave tmrw morning as well.
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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
fountainguy97 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Very good consensus for a pretty large NW event. Just waiting for the high res to get in range. GFS is very bullish still. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
fountainguy97 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Good catch. interesting setup this weekend with two drivers for NW snow. Models look cold too so ratios could squeeze a lot out. GFS is pretty bullish with QPF across the upslope areas this weekend. Not super common to see a global this aggressive with straight NW flow atleast in the few winters I've really paid attention. Maybe we can squeeze out a decent event below the 3500 mark. In fact, the UK, CMC, GFSv16 all mirror this look and amounts as well. Interested to see the NAM family as they come into range. I bet the 3km pumps out some ridiculous kuchera totals for the high peaks like it always does. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
fountainguy97 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
love that radar depiction. Where do you get those? -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
fountainguy97 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
12z euro. this is not our 140-170 timeframe. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
fountainguy97 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
UK almost drops a classic Miller A here. Looking good. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
fountainguy97 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
yeah there is a LOT of energy flying around during this time. Highly likely this is one of those systems that could just kind of show a weak signal then pop up randomly around 120hrs. Usually these highly volatile patterns are modeled poorly outside 120-130. and even inside. 12z GEFS isnt quite as bullish but still plenty of signal. Wouldn't mind seeing sporadic Euro/EPS support over the next few days. But I'd say atleast 36-48 hrs before we know if this is legit or not. Maybe even longer. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
fountainguy97 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Same here having 3 very similar big dog members this far out is pretty bullish. Great signal for cold and a low pressure to our south. That’s all we can ask for at this stage. 12z may get interesting if we get some OP support. Gfs is suppressed and that’s exactly where we want it in this range. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
fountainguy97 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
been watching this period for a few days now and the 06z GFS is starting to look very interesting for the 140-170 timeframe. Classic time for a storm as we shake up our pattern on the heels of a large frontal cold shot. This potential slides in just a couple days after much of the Eastern US is plunged into a pretty cool period. Could be a classic setup for the Southeast/Tennessee valley. -
Jan 11-12 Mississippi Mauler: Will it or won't it?
fountainguy97 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
pleasantly surprised here in Unicoi county. nice light/moderate snow. dusting on mulch is starting. I'll take a bust on this side over the last storm any day- 112 replies
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January 7 - 8 ULL obs and nowcast
fountainguy97 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Delayed but not denied! 33.6 and light snow. -
January 7 - 8 ULL obs and nowcast
fountainguy97 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Updated forecast for the rest of today. I do not buy this at all for Unicoi. HRRR has done very well for my area so far. Cant believe it’s verifying when it was by itself for so long. Hopefully you guys have had better luck I’m sitting at 34 with Wet grass. -
January 7 - 8 ULL obs and nowcast
fountainguy97 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Pain over here in Unicoi. Been on this edge for hours -
January 7 - 8 ULL obs and nowcast
fountainguy97 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
37.6 here with some micro flakes flying. Waiting for the band from Asheville to head my way! should atleast manage an hour of good rates if hrrr is right. If other models are right this backbuilds over me. We will see -
January 7 - 8 ULL potential
fountainguy97 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
congrats on those seeing snow! HRRR still concerning for us Eastern areas going into game time... -
January 7 - 8 ULL potential
fountainguy97 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
MRX starting to bite a bit. Now that we are inside 12hrs haha very nice consensus finally forming on our “big 3” meso models. Hrrr is ticking their way each run as well. -
January 7 - 8 ULL potential
fountainguy97 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
12km and 3km are rocking for us tonight! Hrrr leaping and bounding toward them as well. Euro has been showing this for days now. Time to get a little bit excited I think -
January 7 - 8 ULL potential
fountainguy97 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Seems like it’s all in the flow. watch this GIF. You can quickly see the initial dry slot as I assume mountains etc soak up a lot of moisture. Then our flow halts and pivots and you see an explosion of precip in NE TN and the valley. you can see the initial dry slot I assume is caused by just the initial flow and mountains blocking a lot of moisture. Atleast I know for Unicoi this flow often can lead to a lack of precip. then as we see the pivot we see that explosion into the valley and across NE TN. And if this happens we could be talking abt some very nice rates and a very slow moving band. Easy 2” an hour in places. so it’s almost like a two step process. Step one will actually take a while. Don’t be surprised to see a lot of weak precip all around us all through the evening and tonight but that’s expected! The real show is early tomorrow morning when we get that veering flow. -
January 7 - 8 ULL potential
fountainguy97 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Someone is going to see biscuit sized flakes under this. Look at that vertical motion from 800mb to 400mb -
January 7 - 8 ULL potential
fountainguy97 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hrrr is trending better and better now that we are getting into its range. Falling in line with others.