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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Can't get behind the GFS. 3KM NAM paints a .5-1" swatch across the state. I think it's a novelty event. There is very little NW flow of any kind associated with this event. It's nearly all frontal. And even that is in question. Should be a very very minor snow event looking at things this afternoon. Gfs is in need of an emergency shutdown and repair. Maybe this will age poorly lol 12z euro and GFS still have the same qpf. One is frozen one is not. Main show is the sheer amount of cold we will have Friday.
  2. fountainguy97
    There is really no major difference in qpf between euro and GFS. The GFS has the bulk of precip falling behind the 32 line will EURO has it in front. for now the RGEM/NAM seem to favor the gfs although I'm skeptical of meso models until inside 48hrs.
  3. fountainguy97
    06z gfs is actually a nice hit for many. It has MUCH more of the front as snow than euro and crew. I remain extremely skeptical after the GFS performance with this one. I've never had fun with "cold chasing moisture" setups. Although this is on an extreme level. Ratios will be extreme. So even .2 more qpf can stack on 4+ inches.
  4. fountainguy97
    Oh she cutting hard this run. What a storm this is going to be this week.
  5. fountainguy97
    I'll be interested to see how long my inch of snow lasts with this airmass lol. Very impressive cold shot for sure.
  6. fountainguy97
    I feel like this is one of those storms that has 1000 scenarios that mostly don't work for us and only 1 that does. Even if we get more focus on the miller A low it doesn't really matter unless it's the primary. No way we get back to that. In fact, a coastal transfer could end up dryslotting ETN more. This is all or nothing I believe.
  7. fountainguy97
    06z gfs undid all the positive trends and is now the least snowy it's been lol. Towel has been thrown for me. Let's kick the can another 10 days down the road like we have done since thanksgiving
  8. fountainguy97
    Yeah don't think the DGZ level means a whole lot really but still crazy to be on the surface in our area.
  9. fountainguy97
  10. fountainguy97
    With the DGZ literally on the ground I will be extremely curious to see how Meso Models handle the NW aspect of this event. In uncharted territory as far as my NW experience here. Could be single digits and NW flow. The only negative is it's relatively short lived.
  11. fountainguy97
    Gfs has been ticking east since 12z. it may not be 2feet across the entire state but this isn't over. We have a LONG time before it's completely set.
  12. fountainguy97
    I mean the 18z gfs is still a substantial hit. Maybe we can see euro trend toward a snowier solution. I'll admit the gfs scenario does seem a bit odd. Possible. But not sure I've seen anything quite like it before.
  13. fountainguy97
    Although the snow didn't go the way anyone wanted this is still an absolutely incredible cold shot. Even more so now without snow cover.
  14. fountainguy97
    Yet another event we have to kick the can down the road for. Been doing it since thanksgiving. EURO obviously going to win this match.
  15. fountainguy97
    Icon with a big shift to GFS. Single digits and heavy NW flow for most of TN. Meanwhile GFS making a tick toward euro at 500mb so far. We may end up with one of these weird in between systems after all
  16. fountainguy97
    This difference is pretty wild at 48hrs out between gfs and euro. look over Alaska. The GFS already has a much more discreet energy piece. Wonder how it's getting that while no other model is showing it.
  17. fountainguy97
    This would shut up the old timers about how "it used to snow so much" follow this up with multiple runs to zero and below and you have a historic event across ETN for sure
  18. fountainguy97
    Our energy is over Russia currently. It hits the Canadian coastline in 5 days. We have a LONG way to go with this first event. Key for the next 2-3 days will continue to be the ensembles. Typically when the OPs lose a storm in this range and it is a legit threat the ensembles don't budge.
  19. fountainguy97
    Idk if it's the perfect flow or what but this is one of the most intense wind events I've experienced here. It's legitimate mid range tropical storm conditions here. The 00z Euro would be wild. Near zero with NW flow and possible blizzard level winds.
  20. fountainguy97
    I'm not going to lie. All I see is models kicking the can down the road. Nothing concrete has moved into the more confident short range or even mid range. Our first two storms (front passage and suppressed wave behind it) have gone their way. Third one already pretty far north on guidance. 06z gfs continuing that trend. Really hope we don't kick the can in these threats straight into spring.
  21. fountainguy97
    Looks like NW chances have diminished some today. Still a novelty event though.
  22. fountainguy97
    Models starting to come to some semi-agreement in a NW event with this first system. that being said there is a LOT to iron out even with this first system. The chances behind it are even better. Have to like where we are right now. If we can even score with our first system that's gravy on top.
  23. fountainguy97
    18Z GEFS member 8. 1993 anyone?
  24. fountainguy97
    Fantastic! Hoping for a great winter here! Yeah flow is mostly unimpeded for me even down low!
  25. fountainguy97
    I'm in Unicoi County. Below Beauty Spot in Rock Creek area. 2,000 elevation on the nose. I do surprisingly well in NW events considering I'm not very high up. An amazingly complex climate in the Southern Appalachians. Pretty fun to see all the local snow "hot spots." And how it varies so much.
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