fountainguy97
-
Posts
1,028 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by fountainguy97
-
White is above the value of 1 and I think can be considered untrustworthy. Basically an error. Uniform sized precip like all rain or all snow will be right around the value of 1. Any reduction in the value is a sign of different sized and shaped objects in the sky. Which is why we see the mixing line so well today. Also useful tracking tornadoes. Debris will show up as a very low value.
-
Honestly I never use the precipitation depiction. Correlation coefficient is always the best for discerning Ptypes
-
You should go back to snow after a while. Hrrr pulls the line to the east over the next few hours!
-
Our numbers grow every minute
-
Probably right. Low track makes it irrelevant. Needed it to slide 30-50Miles further south.
-
As soon as heavy clouds rolled in I stopped at 37. Slowly climbing. Afraid it was 2 hrs too late.
-
I wouldn't bet against the HRRR at this point. watch it's trends for the Eastern Valley. It did jump some in accumulations this last run for those areas. I think Eastern areas want as much backside snow as possible.
-
I think it's also the lack of clouds across eastern areas this morning. Heavy clouds will move in at the worst time after the sun has already pumped the valley into the 40s. Earlier runs that had less of a warm look never got eastern areas out of the mid/upper 30s. LP is also north. Surging warmth up the west side of the apps. Just not going to work. I've seen this rodeo before. A lot in Eastern NC with clouds rolling in at terrible times lol.
-
Here comes the sun doo doo doo doo.... haha looks fantastic across the Plateau! Cash in guys!
-
Fv3 trending exactly in line with the GFS. Nice uptick across the entire state really. edit: 12km NAM almost the exact same uptick in qpf.
-
For what it's worth I'm already 32 here in Erwin. Wasn't supposed to hit 32 until 3-4am. May not mean a thing though.
-
you are sitting pretty my friend. A daytime snow on top of that!
-
18z HRRR even warmer for East TN. More snow for the Plateau though!
-
I know. Temps in extreme Eastern TN get into the 40s as the storm is moving in. Not sure if the low is forcing warm air up into the area or what. But it does seem strange.
-
Morristown mentioned this in their disco but the air in front of this is extremely dry in the low levels. We will have to moisten our column from the top down this time. This does help with surface temps east of the Plateau though. Hopefully it doesn't soak up all the precip.
-
models are not being kind to the mountains. Everything dries up. Hopefully you guys further west score! I'm likely out of this one besides an inch or two.
-
Yep. These systems with a weak Low always seem to be sneaky. We are only dealing with tenths of inches so asking a global model to hit it on the head even 3 days out is asking too much. Which is why @Carvers Gap hit it on the head a couple posts up about smoothing the edges out. Add .1-.2 inches across an area with 10-15:1 ratios and that's a significant uptick in snowfall.
-
Is it possible those intense cells are hindering the moisture transport into the rest of the precip shield? Similar to what happens when a Miller A gets strangled dry by a line of intense storms along the gulf. (I remember a few heartbreakers that fizzled for Eastern NC because of this) That could be the reason behind the euros pretty weak QPF besides the swath of .5+
-
Definitely one of those storms where the top end is likely 6". Any more amped for more moisture and this thing misses us all to the north. Models really have locked on to a pretty decent track for a lot of TN. But I'm wary of the NW trend over the next day. Atleast this one is our more favorable cold ground higher ratio event.
-
6" exactly IMBY. All within exactly 4 hours from first to last flake. Very impressive considering the first hour temps were above 32 and ground temps. on frozen ground this was 8" in 4hrs. -
Pivot band setting up over eastern areas. Should be 2-3 hrs of crazy rates. Just hit 32. Everything covered. hrrr says additional 6-7. We will see how much ground truth we get!
-
75/25 snow/rain 37.5 was the mark
-
37.4 all rain. Any minute now...
-
Temp accelerating here too. Down to 38.8. Mostly rain. Some sleet. Shouldn't be long!
-
Right on cue as others. 39.7 and seeing bouncing sleet off the deck.
