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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Daytime, temps above 32, warmer ground, and spotty nature of snowfall doesn't bode well for much accumulation throughout the day. Hopefully we have plenty of moisture tonight! 37 and rain here currently.
  2. fountainguy97
    Hard for me to get onboard with the hrrr being so dry. I feel like this one may slip through our hands even for NW areas. Of course the tip top peaks will score but hrrr keeps most areas with a dusting at best.
  3. fountainguy97
    Wind picking up here slowly. hrrr is extremely unimpressed for Unicoi county. Barely gives me a dusting.. it's not the best on qpf outside 12hrs or so. But it's got me very conservative this afternoon.
  4. fountainguy97
  5. fountainguy97
    Models holding steady this morning. For my back yard NAM and HRRR both advertise an extreme cutoff with about an inch for me. Hoping to squeeze that out!
  6. fountainguy97
    RGEM follows suite with a cutoff trough just like NAM.
  7. fountainguy97
    Let's keep this trend going. The more neutral and cutoff we can get the more moisture we will have to work with.
  8. fountainguy97
    Great trends at 500mb.
  9. fountainguy97
  10. fountainguy97
    Wow NAM even better at 500mb. This is a doozy. man closed off ULL at hr 51. This thing is cranking big time on NAM. Going to be some big totals.
  11. fountainguy97
    I'm hungry for flakes
  12. fountainguy97
    Figured we can keep the main topic clean and talk about the weekend here. 18Z NAM tilted our trough much more neutral vs positive which is really helping to stack up significant qpf across the NW prone regions. Every tick more neutral will add to totals quietly. Even a good bit of moisture up to 700mb now. RGEM is on board as well. High mountains should see 6+ easily in a setup like this. Should see some thunder as well with temps in the upper 60s, DPs in the upper 50s, and Cape into the 500 range. Exciting weekend ahead!
  13. fountainguy97
    12z NAM family looks great. 24-36hrs of NWSF. Some streamers across the valley too.
  14. fountainguy97
    Very true lol. NAM was stacking it on and had several hours to go. Maybe we squeeze out something noteworthy this weekend.
  15. fountainguy97
    While not prolific by any means the 18z NAM is a good sign for this weekend. Plenty of backside moisture up to 700mb thanks to the large UL trough pivoting through. Should be a good 24hr window for NW flow.
  16. fountainguy97
    Can't complain with this look
  17. fountainguy97
    Long range NAM is almost always too dry. In my experience at least. It used to be too wet but they over corrected it the other way.
  18. fountainguy97
    Models have really taken a step back tonight. Oh well. Looks like a minor NW event. This has been a rough one so far. Hoping we can atleast get one decent event before spring.
  19. fountainguy97
    Doesn't turn negative in time but much better euro run. Northern energy becomes the dominant piece like cmc.
  20. fountainguy97
    Euro with a lot more energy with our northern stream. Let's see where it goes
  21. fountainguy97
    For those of you who have not been tracking this weekends storm. The EPS/GEFS have had some hints of this but the CMC is the first global to confirm this solution. The Northern stream energy has been trending stronger and slower over the top of our bowling ball. This has allowed that piece to rotate around the trough and become the main player over the Eastern seaboard. We would like to see this trend continue a bit more so our storm goes negative tilt sooner and can throw more precip back our way.
  22. fountainguy97
    There was a LOT of noise on the overnight EPS. CMC on board is a huge step forward. if we can get this transition to happen quickly and cleanly it could really bump totals for ETN. Probably won't help the valley a ton. Folks along the East Coast could have a "surprise" storm on their hands.
  23. fountainguy97
    EPS really likes that reforming low. Not sure if it means anything for our area.
  24. fountainguy97
    18z gfs joins the "backside enhancement" group. Steeper trough. Don't see a surface reflection besides maybe a meso-low over in NC.
  25. fountainguy97
    Yep and our upper air energy is a massive vortex with multiple pieces swinging around. It's still offshore for 3 days. How they shear apart and make their way across the US is not set in stone at all. Long way to go.
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