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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Thread is open for business!
  2. fountainguy97
    Well let's clear up the long range thread and chase some flakes! High res suite at 18z looks good for the typical NW flow areas. I fully expect to see some flakes break containment across the valley. this is unlikely but the HRRR has a full on meso-low snow squall rolling through.
  3. fountainguy97
    RGEM and 12k NAM at 12z both look great for the typical NW areas. 24+ hrs of nw snow. 3km has a dry bias long range I've noticed. Wouldn't put stock into it for another 36hrs
  4. fountainguy97
    The NAM has made a huge shift at 00z in regards to the northern wave behind this system. An absolute beast of a NW event. This piece of energy is not even onshore yet.
  5. fountainguy97
    Well this storm has a long way to go. The euro and UK tonight really dig the second wave of energy and deliver a pretty potent NW event. A lot of eps support too and the gfs jumped that way at 00z just didn't dig it as much. this is really the solution that can deliver any frozen precip with this system. And it will likely be changing until a few hours before the event. Long few days of watching ahead
  6. fountainguy97
    Man what a storm. Going to be an awesome system to watch. It does pain this snowlovers heart to see it rain though haha.
  7. fountainguy97
    I Was going to come here and say this exact thing. Precip over us for 84hrs on 00z gfs. 2.5-3" of rainfall. Would have been one of those winter storms you hear talked about for decades. Instead we get 30s and rain haha still good for our area though.
  8. fountainguy97
    models trending flatter today with the chance tonight. No surprise. Looking to the next system and man..what a track.. this one will be painful if we get 2" of rain in the mid-30s.
  9. fountainguy97
    Now hang on.. all of a sudden the RGEM/NAM/and HRRR smoke the border counties with a few hours of heavy paste...
  10. fountainguy97
    RGEM brings the hammer down. Nice to look at. Won't be reality most likely.
  11. fountainguy97
    Idk abt this one. No cold air supply anywhere to be found. Tons of model support for a storm but nearly 0 support for any snow. 1-2 eps members and 1 gets member. We can fix tracks but it's nearly impossible to fix lack of cold source. going to need the ULL to sit in JUST the right spot to "make its own cold" and I've seen those situations bust 9/10 times haha.
  12. fountainguy97
    I've seen this story too many times. Backend setups fail 99/100 times. I'd discount anything other than the NW flow after the main precip moves through. Just how these things go
  13. fountainguy97
    Wow the NAM quite literally takes me from 67 to mid 20s in 12 hrs. Lightning to heavy snow. Sunday may be an absurd weather day if that takes place.
  14. fountainguy97
    Hmm... this humpback look is how we score with this.
  15. fountainguy97
    Yeah this weekend feels so close but so far. Need that low reformation to happen a bit further south. Some of the gefs members show some action. Touchy system. I don't think we see much in the end because the 500mb energy is pretty far north.
  16. fountainguy97
    There is a single EPS member that dumps 20+ inches over Erwin with the storm mid-next week. Anyone have access to snow maps for it?
  17. fountainguy97
    3300' abt 4 miles from my house. Beauty Spot.
  18. fountainguy97
    Nice burst of convective graupel this morning. Quickly coated grass and mulch. This event was really less of NW flow and just more of convective showers. I never really got more than 2-3 hrs of true NW flow winds. And even then it was mostly dry.
  19. fountainguy97
    Our clipper for next week just won't go away. Ceiling is probably pretty low because it's positive tilt but if we can get it closed off could really be a nice little start to December.
  20. fountainguy97
    Some pretty surprising confidence in models for some NW action on the back side of the next big system December 6-8th. GFS has a secondary low take a clipper-like path. this EPS blend is showing you where precip is falling below 33 degrees or likely snow. (Brown) pretty much every model and ensemble member has some NW snow occurring at this time frame. let's see if we trend to a more significant event or away from one in the next few days.
  21. fountainguy97
    Hrrr goes nuclear with the wind event Tuesday morning. Quite the wind event shaping up. Thankfully rain quickly after.
  22. fountainguy97
    That's definitely some aurora! This is from my newly installed weather cam tonight.
  23. fountainguy97
    Agree with all of you this AM. We ( especially @Carvers Gap) have been all over the somewhat typical nino progression this winter. I am out of my depth here but I've seen a lot of talk regarding this Nino and not seeing its full strength realized. The SSTs are strong maybe even super but the atmosphere may behave more like a moderate Nino this winter which I think would be fantastic for us. I'm just spitting out what I've seen several pro's mention. And it certainly seems to be the case so far with the dry spell recently. Unfortunately, we may have to punt into Jan-Mar, but realistically that gives us the best odds for snow even if I'm impatient and want it now lol. I do expect to see atleast a couple mountain events in December. As far as November snow.. yeah it's not happening. GFS is wall to wall torch more or less. Again probably a good thing longer term.
  24. fountainguy97
    Drought really taking hold. not much of interest on models. So I guess seeing how red this map gets is about the most interesting thing we have to watch.
  25. fountainguy97
    AN still holding on for the month so far. Likely going to bleed further AN. Big cold shot coming but it may be mostly in November. Chances pretty high for a AN October albeit just barely. Precip is still a problem. Maybe a quick .5-1inch for areas tmrw morning.
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