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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Yes that 18z run was probably about to bury someone
  2. fountainguy97
    Yeah this run won't do anything for us but a major trend toward euro with holding back the energy. Euro leading the way.
  3. fountainguy97
    18z gfs defitnely a big shift toward EURO with more focus on holding back that piece. Initial frontal stuff dies out.
  4. fountainguy97
    Thats a good summary. Models seem to be trending more toward the holding back solution but I hope we don't end up in an awkward inbetween solution where the front is dead and the back energy is too late
  5. fountainguy97
    But that's the question. Does this just flatten into a non-event? Verbatim euro is basically a swing and a miss for the SE with a late blooming surface low. I guess the ceiling is much higher with this look but it'll be easy for this to be too late for most of the E US besides New England.
  6. fountainguy97
  7. fountainguy97
    "I swear bro. The NAM has this one nailed. Trust me" someone start the thread. My last one went poof haha
  8. fountainguy97
    Yes I believe that's a suitable outcome for all of TN. Middle/west gets the frontal aspect and then the lingered shortwaves backfill the front as a low pops for the east. it's not worth much the but 12z NAM is in line with the euro of a slower and more solidified "backend" shortwave (I guess that's how we will call it)
  9. fountainguy97
    The winter of dustings continues today. I've had 6 snowfalls. 3 Trace and 3 dustings. The frustrating thing is almost every snow looked better and then fizzled short range. I've spent so much time at 33-35 and snow this winter.
  10. fountainguy97
    Yeah need that backing into the cold boundary from a developing coastal. Probably need a thread for 12z. Mid-west TN basically a lock for some frozen
  11. fountainguy97
    For people East of the Plateau you want the EURO to keep trended for a negative tilt. The only way we score is if we get a low to form and fire convection. If not then yes. The moisture will go poof. the good news is the gfs is ticking that way but still not enough. That's the only way this brings much of anything to Eastern areas. Need this to continue. We don't need an 1" of precip with this. Its so cold just need a few hours of good rates.
  12. fountainguy97
    This one feels feast or famine. It's either a major event or it's clear skies. Our energy is still over 4 days from being onshore and we have another system to deal with this week too. Still just warning shots but a good sign is that we have cross model support. I personally don't like the looks of this one especially for ETN. But really for anyone. This is one of those storms that will be a pain in the rear to track. It'll be easier to squash this into the ocean vs amp IMO. I hope I'm wrong we have lost most support for an amped version with most of 12z a whiff besides EURO. In normal circumstances I would argue that's right where we want it (for middle and west regions). I'm taking the sit back and relax approach. Let's see what we have come Friday when it's only 2 days from being onshore.
  13. fountainguy97
    Yeah gfs is coming toward euro which is our miller A. Gefs is very suppressed as is EPS. Thats a good sign that maybe the OPs are on the northern end of guidance. It's possible that means we won't see a massive north trend. Just speculation at this point. we have 2 major systems (1 ongoing 1 to come) before this one is next up to bat. Long way to go but it is probably the best look of the season so far.
  14. fountainguy97
    This has been my reservation for this system. This screams cold rain for E TN. But the other portions of the state are due!
  15. fountainguy97
    NAM'd
  16. fountainguy97
    Love seeing all the input! We have nice crew of posters here these days! 12z inbound!
  17. fountainguy97
    North trend for the win? Right where we want it honestly. I know focus will be on the "big dog" after this one but our last event trended way south around the 5 day mark but came roaring back north in the 2-4 day period. Watch for this to potentially do the same. There are still GEFS members with some northern solutions. We need a faster ejection of the southern piece and a slower northern to get that negative kick to pop the surface low further north. Trailing piece could be the bigger story. A lot of times we get the "setup" system and then the trailing delivers the goods. Best chance of the season for winter action for the Southeast so far! This first week of Jan has been in the discussion for a while now. Glad to finally stop kicking the can and see some verification in the mid-range.
  18. fountainguy97
    I agree. But I never really thought the poor snow records were trying to maliciously change the trends of climate here but now that you mention it I wouldn't be surprised. When I go back and look at historical events it's just sad how poor snow records are. I have seen official measurements easily half the actual amount for my area. a few years ago they secretly unveiled a new algorithm for measuring sea ice area and volume which very coincidentally increased numbers pre 2015 and lowered numbers post 2015... even with all the fiddling of numbers they still can't manage to create a new record low sea ice in the Arctic for the headlines lol. Are things changing? I believe so. Buts it's a fluid system to begin with. When I see urban heat islands of 10-15 degrees in the summer which hundreds of climate stations are in I wonder how they can somehow say all that asphalt isnt skewing numbers higher? Just doesn't sit well with me. On top of that any political hot topic is bound to be riddled with second agendas and goals..
  19. fountainguy97
    Man those streams of moisture building on radar the last few frames look stout. If we can get down to 32 this will stack on quickly. I've been hovering between 32.5 and 33.5 all day.
  20. fountainguy97
    Nice moderate snow for about 4 hours today but temps were at 32.5-33 so no accumulation. beautiful day regardless! Feels like winter!
  21. fountainguy97
    Yeah this one has support across all model families which we haven't had yet this winter really. Perfect spot for the inevitable NW jog thats coming
  22. fountainguy97
    What a strange system this is shaping up to be. A random chunk of precip just sits over tri-cities into WV for over a day as the ULL slowly churns. not sure I've ever seen anything like this. Trends are for more separation and the ULL to remain closed off longer which is good for snow. Need that to continue.
  23. fountainguy97
    18z gefs with the best mean yet. Looks like this one is legit. The start is almost on high res models believe it or not. looks like a 36hr event in the mountains. Pretty typical in the higher end NW events. The high res are going to be pretty for sure haha
  24. fountainguy97
    GEFS taking a big jump overnight with our NW event. wow big changes on the 06z gfs. 3-4 isobar closed ULL now.
  25. fountainguy97
    Dig this a few hundred south and it's a multi-day NW snow event with temps in the low 20s
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