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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Man going to be an unusual day tomorrow for the middle of summer. Won't feel like it tomorrow. PWATs approaching 2". Probably going to be some flooding in the mountains of TN and NC if the 2-3+ inches materialize. The firehouse is already lined up.
  2. fountainguy97
    Peaked at 89.1 so far today. Have yet to hit 90 this year but I think we will do it this week. I won't be surprised if this week is the "peak" of our summers heat. Can't complain at all about the year we have had so far. A welcome relief compared to the last few Niña springs and summers. The gears of fall are slowly beginning to turn up north. August will be hot but my favorite time of year is just around the corner! This time of year is when I always start rummaging through old winter event threads and wishing for colder days.
  3. fountainguy97
    Checking in. It's hot. Is it December yet?
  4. fountainguy97
    Well with winter behind us here is my summary. 4 events behind normal. 11" behind average of the last 4 winters. (2019-2023 average)
  5. fountainguy97
    Honestly I don't think many anyone East of I-85 have much hope. Even the runs that favor them it's all a cold rain. Your'e going to want to have atleast a bit of elevation for this one. I'm indifferent abt it. It's one of the best looks of the winter for snow for the SE. But it's March and not early March. Temps will be a problem if we even get the precip. This setup in January would be mouthwatering.
  6. fountainguy97
    Models have flattened out the wave associated with next weeks storm. Probably right where we want it at this range. It would be fitting for the last threat to be suppressed though lol
  7. fountainguy97
    Significant uptick in GEFS members with this system.. CMC is close. This one is getting interesting. Sitting on the NW edge of this is exactly where we want to be.
  8. fountainguy97
    This is a beautiful setup for the spine of the Apps. Big dog potential. Probably one of the best looks of the winter inside 180. Would like to see some more ensemble support though at this range.
  9. fountainguy97
    To be fair to the GFS the EURO is very similar at 00z. It just isnt as dynamic of a system so the cold isn't there. This weekend is 100% cold chasing moisture with no other model support. Early next week could be a legit threat but support is low right now which is actually how we want it at this range. I'd rather be missed to the south at this stage. That is something we haven't been able to say any this year.
  10. fountainguy97
    I am highly skeptical of this weekend and next week. Gfs has almost no support and we know how that has gone this winter.
  11. fountainguy97
    Wind shear is necessary for long lived storms because it tilts the updrafts and downdrafts away from each other. Allowing them to be independent. Without shear the updraft and downdraft overlap and smother each other. Too much shear (wind) can just rip them apart from each other. Basically decapitating any storm. here is a brief NWS article about it. https://www.weather.gov/ilx/swop-springtopics The hrrr doesn't have any signs of issues with shear for the main line today. Doesn't mean there won't be limiting factors though.
  12. fountainguy97
    Definitely looking like a "legit" severe weather event for TN this Friday. The usual low cape, high shear event as typical for early season. But with temps in the 70s and DPs in the 60s we should get some decent afternoon development.
  13. fountainguy97
    I have a feeling we are going to have a massive kill-off of budding plants sometime soon... no way we don't have a solid cold shot before April.
  14. fountainguy97
    80.6/53 today. An absolutely perfect afternoon.
  15. fountainguy97
    34.7 and coming down good! Small flakes but can tell it's ramping up. Too bad this didn't happen at lunch. I've had .7 inches of rain since then.
  16. fountainguy97
    35.8 with flakes mixing in. Not a shutout atleast lol. to continue the conversation... winter has been extremely low here. I'm over 8" below normal and will likely end up a foot or more below normal. I was talking to a friend who lives back in Eastern NC and he says it's the worst winter he was ever tracked. Not a single storm to track all winter. Not even a hint of a threat. Even in shutouts we typical have atleast a potential system or two outside the mountains. This year? Not a single one besides this one. rough.
  17. fountainguy97
    Deform finally moving in but a toasty 39. Hoping to atleast see some flakes.
  18. fountainguy97
    My guess is daytime timing has killed this. Tough day of 38-42 and rain ahead. Definitely puts a nice bookend to this winter lol. man... stings.
  19. fountainguy97
    Tick tick tick hrrr looking good. final frame.
  20. fountainguy97
    I'm not really sure about why some models have a deform band of death vs others with barely showers. You would think we would have a monster deform pivoting through... the Rgem made a big move for a heavier deform at 12z. Let's see it's 18z.
  21. fountainguy97
    Can clearly see the difference between NAM and RGEM. For NE TN temps aren't the issue. It's rates.
  22. fountainguy97
    I've been watching trends on the pivoting deform band as a potential surprise and the 18z nam just delivered. the euro camp from last night had the deform band pivoting further east allowing areas of NE TN to change to biscuits for the last 6 hrs of the event. Here is the nam trend. The hrrr has also ticked this way.
  23. fountainguy97
    RAP, FV3 and EURO (hrrr too but just not quite there) have the deform band further east which allows rates to change NE TN to snow. They all have a good 6hr beat down on the tail end. This feature is still 40hrs out. Plenty of wiggle room. We may not be done yet.
  24. fountainguy97
    The fv3 came in like euro.
  25. fountainguy97
    Not sure. I've been tricked many times by the "but the soundings support snow" talk and almost always ended up watching rain fall. But this weekend is intriguing. I'm 33-34 and rain on hrrr with a cold column. It's so interesting to see the euro changing over to snow. Like I said. I'm not betting against modeled output but if there is any weekend to question soundings this is the one.
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